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Week in Preview: Retail Sales, Consumer Credit and Earnings

earnings expectationsSo, the unemployment rate sank below 9% in February, but investors didn't seem to be impressed by that. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all fell on Friday over concerns about how the ongoing unrest in the Middle East might affect energy prices, and thus the economic recovery.

Will this coming week's economic calendar offer anything likely to bring excitement to the markets? Here's what's on tap:

  • Monday: Consumer credit numbers for January
  • Tuesday: Weekly chain store sales, TIPP Economic Optimism Index

Continue reading Week in Preview: Retail Sales, Consumer Credit and Earnings

Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Retail Earnings, Bernanke Testimony

earnings expectationsThis week we turn the calendar page, and that change brings with it a raft of economic data. Scheduled for release on Monday are pending home sales and personal income numbers for January, as well as the Chicago PMI and car and truck sales data for February.

On Tuesday, look for the ISM Manufacturing Index for February and construction spending numbers for January. That's followed on Wednesday by the week's first employment data: the Challenger Job-Cuts announcement and the ADP employment report for February. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress on both days.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Unemployment Rate, Retail Earnings, Bernanke Testimony

The Week in Preview: Housing Data, Lennar's Earnings and More

housing sales housing startsHousing steps into the spotlight again this coming week. The release of the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index starts out the week on Monday morning. Then on Tuesday morning, look for housing starts data from August. Release of the July FHFA House Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday. And numbers for existing home sales and for new home sales in August are due out Thursday and Friday, respectively. Overall, the housing market is expected to have continued to lose momentum in August, but less dramatically than in July.

Also on the economic calendar this week: Tuesday's FOMC meeting on interest rates, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index for August on Thursday, initial jobless claims for last week, and durable goods orders data for August on Friday. No significant changes from the Fed are anticipated, but the leading economic indicators may rise a bit.

Continue reading The Week in Preview: Housing Data, Lennar's Earnings and More

Dow Clue #2: Keep an Eye on Jobless Claims, Over Quarters

jobless claimsOn Wednesday, I noted a good short-hand for time-pressed investors who want to gauge whether or not it's a good time to start committing more money to stocks -- the U.S. Department of Labor's monthly Employment Situation report. It receives ample media coverage. In a summary: more than 125,000 jobs per month created consistently? That's bullish for the Dow.

Here's a second indicator: initial jobless claims. However, because jobless claims can fluctuate wildly due to idiosyncratic events (holidays, strikes, weather-related job cuts, etc.), use the 400,000-level barometer.

Continue reading Dow Clue #2: Keep an Eye on Jobless Claims, Over Quarters

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, Futures Move Higher

unemployment claimsFor the first time in four weeks, the Labor Department's report on initial jobless claims held some good news. During the past week, new requests for unemployment benefits dropped sharply.

Last week 31,000 fewer people issued claims for unemployment help, bringing the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims to 473,000. As noted, this is the first drop in the past four weeks, bringing an end to a rather large three-week increase in claims.

Continue reading Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, Futures Move Higher

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall by 11,000

The weekly peek into the jobs picture has been released by the Labor Department, which reported that the number of people applying for initial state unemployment insurance benefits contracted by 11,000. The number of claims dropped to 457,000, which was lower than the expected drop to 460,000.

The four-week average of initial claims, which is considered a better measure of employment trends, dropped by 4,500 to 452,500 -- the lowest level since May. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 17 increased 81,000 to 4.57 million. The four-week average of continuing claims dropped by 18,000 to 4.55 million (which was the lowest level since December 2008). Compared to a year ago, initial state claims are 21% lower and continuing claims are roughly 26% lower.

Continue reading Weekly Jobless Claims Fall by 11,000

Jobless Claims Increase by 37,000

The unmber of initial state unemployment benefits increased by 37,000 to 464,000 during the past week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. This was above economist expectations for initial claims of 450,000. The four-week average of initial claims also increased, up 1,250 to 456,000. The four-week moving average is considered a better indicator because it shows the overall trend rather than the action in the past week.

Continuing claims dropped by 223,000 to 4.49 million during the past week. Experts attribute the volatility in the number of continuing claims to seasonal adjustment issues. The four-week average of continuing claims also dropped by 21,500 to 4.57 million.

Continue reading Jobless Claims Increase by 37,000

Jobs and Durable Good Data Push Market Lower

There were two major data releases Thursday morning, both of which are having an impact on the market.

First we have the Labor Department's release of initial unemployment claims data. According to the government, first-time applications for state unemployment fell by 19,000 last week. This is good news because it is the lowest level of claims in six weeks and the number came in lower than the expected 472,000.

Continue reading Jobs and Durable Good Data Push Market Lower

We Are to Ignore February Jobless Numbers Because of Snow

Okay, last week I mocked the government because of the assertion that the recent blizzards were a reason that we saw a larger-than-expected increase in jobless claims. I thought that perhaps this was the blame game going overboard, but that isn't the case.

White House economic adviser Larry Summers reiterated yesterday that "winter blizzards were likely to distort U.S. February jobless figures." Seriously. Yes, I know that some companies have weather-related issues and that could have some impact on the jobless picture, but this is just a bit much.

Continue reading We Are to Ignore February Jobless Numbers Because of Snow

Jobless Claims Log an Unexpected Jump

Futures have backed off a bit, thanks mainly to the Labor Department's latest report on initial jobless claims. The number of Americans claiming first-time unemployment benefits increased by 36,000 to 482,000.

This increase is greater than the expected drop to 438,000 and is the highest level of claims since November. This increase in claims breaks a streak of 19 straight declines.

Continue reading Jobless Claims Log an Unexpected Jump

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 12:35 PM

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