MetLife (MET - option chain) stock is trading lower today along with most other insurance companies this morning after the cost to insurers related to Friday's earthquake in Japan was estimated to be between $15 to $35 billion. Prudential Financial (PRU) and AIG (AIG) are also down so far in today's trading. Even if these insurance companies are actually on solid footing financially with regard to their expected claims, I expect investors could be frightened for several months to come, which could keep share prices depressed. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MET.
insurance posts
FeedTraders Exit Insurance Stocks to Avoid Earthquake Exposure
Continue reading Traders Exit Insurance Stocks to Avoid Earthquake Exposure
Chubb Continues to Chug Along
The stock of insurer Chubb Corp (CB), first discussed here on May 29, 2009 at a price of $39.65, continues to move higher, in incremental fashion, and I obviously still like the business model at this juncture.Look for Chubb to post a small rise in premiums in 2011, bolstered by solid operational characteristics. Chubb boasts a strong personal insurance brand, a diversified business (personal lines, commercial insurance, specialty insurance), and a stronger balance sheet than many competitors. The aforementioned should translate in continued market share gains for CB in 2011. Further, pricing is showing signs of bottoming/firming. Investment income will also likely rise slightly in 2011.
Aetna Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview
Insurance giant Aetna Inc. (AET) will be reporting its fourth quarter earnings Friday before the market opens, with analysts expecting to see a strong quarter for the company.Going into tomorrow's earnings report, analysts are expecting to see Aetna report earnings of $0.62 per share, up from $0.40 during the same period last year.
Opportunity on the Euronext: Delta Lloyd
Investors searching for opportunities will be hard pressed to find stocks that are still undervalued. It seems like this rally has pushed every sector to very high levels. Perhaps, it may be time to look in more off-the-cuff places for investment ideas.
One possibility trades on the Amsterdam-based exchange, the Euronext. The Dutch insurer, Delta Lloyd Group, which has operations in the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, is a profitable company with a favorable balance sheet that trades at a significant discount to its book value. In the first half of 2010, it generated €767 million of income after taxes and non-controlling interests, a 263% increase. At the same time, it has €3,903 billion in tangible assets net of all liabilities, but a market cap of just € 2,810 billion as of January 11. In other words, investing in Delta Lloyd is like buying assets, with all liabilities paid off, at a 30% discount.
Serious Money: Buffett Going Global -- Part 5
To continue the saga of what might be on Warren Buffett's foreign wish list, consider the current holdings of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), the largest of which is insurance. The insurance industry has been hard hit by the economy, but it also has the greatest potential to rebound of any industry. Insurance companies have huge cash flow and a large float (mandated by government regulation) that can be used for investments. This has been a major contributing factor in Buffett's success.Unlike the construction, automobile or financial sectors that have been met with an economic tidal wave that destroyed demand, there is no lack of demand in the insurance industry. The insurance companies have been hurt by the shrinking of their investment portfolios more than loss of demand or even claims, accepting companies that wrote swaps, like American International Group (AIG).
When next "my pal Warren" invests abroad he may not have to go very far.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Going Global -- Part 5
Cigna's Q1 Beats Street on Global Performance
Insurer CIGNA Corporation (CI) posted solid first quarter earnings of $1.01 per share, excluding items, compared to the Thomson/Reuters First Call estimate of 90 cents. So far, investors are more than satisfied. Cigna's shares rose about 75 cents after the earnings release, and recently have recovered nearly all of the ground lost during the May 6 "flash crash." On Tuesday afternoon shares rose 87 cents to $33.52. Cigna earned 76 cents per share a year ago.Cigna, which benefited from a strong international performance, also kept its 2010 earnings guidance the same, with the company seeing full-year EPS of $3.75 to $4.15, compared to the First Call estimate of $4.08. First Call also expects CI to earn $4.36 in 2011.
Continue reading Cigna's Q1 Beats Street on Global Performance
Aflac Trading Slightly Higher Following Q1 Earnings Report
Shares of insurance giant Aflac Inc. (AFL) were slightly higher in after-hours trading Tuesday following the company's announcement of better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter.After the market close Aflac posted earnings per share of $1.35 for its first quarter, which was slightly higher than the $1.32 that analysts had forecast for the company's quarter. During the same period last year the company had earnings of $1.22 per share.
Continue reading Aflac Trading Slightly Higher Following Q1 Earnings Report
Humana Dips on Q1 Report
Humana Inc. (HUM), whose colleagues include Aetna Inc. (AET) and CIGNA Corporation (CI), reported Q1 earnings earlier today. The health insurer isn't doing so well, unfortunately. In late trading, shares were down almost 3% to $43.73. Volume is above the norm, as you might expect.
I've covered many stocks that are near their 52-week highs, but this one doesn't fall into such a desirable category. Alas, the 52-week high on the shares stands at $52.66. And, as you can see from the following one-year chart, the stock began its pullback after it topped out in January. Since then, things haven't been too exciting.
The Travelers Is in an Uptrend
The Travelers (TRV), which I first discussed on April 24, 2009, at a price of $30.50 is, as expected, becoming less-cheap by the month. Hence, it's likely that it's "now or never" to catch this train and earn an out-sized gain with TRV during the current economic expansion.
Look for 2% to 4% premium revenue growth with TRV, as the insurance company takes advantage of new business opportunities. Prudent underwriting, a superior balance sheet, and a $1.32 annual dividend add to the positive mix.
Entrepreneur's Journal: Insuring Your Home Business from Disaster
All in all, there are many advantages to a home business. For example, you have more time to spend with your family, you do not have to deal with aggravating commutes, and there is even the home office tax deduction. If anything, the overall costs should be lower -- making it easier to get traction for your business.
Yet, there are definitely considerable risks, which are often overlooked. But the good news is that smart insurance planning can provide sufficient protection. And the prices are affordable, costing as little as $500 per year.
Continue reading Entrepreneur's Journal: Insuring Your Home Business from Disaster
Catastrophe Bond Issuance Gap Is upon Us
Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.
Insurers Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season
All we can do is wait for Alex.Hurricane season start June 1, 2010, with Alex chosen as the first name, and it's expected to be above average. The Colorado State University forecast released on Wednesday predicts 15 named storms in the Atlantic basin, due partly to record warm water. Eight of them are expected to reach hurricane status, with sustained winds of 74 mph, and four are forecasted to become Category 3, 4 or 5 storms, with sustained winds of 111 mph. Typically, there are only 10 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes (two of them major), based on data going back to 1950.
William Gray, a member of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, told USA Today, "The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69%, compared with the last-century average of 52%."
Continue reading Insurers Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season
Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels
If you look at the financials, it's almost like nothing has changed, and let's hope the lessons learned in between aren't obscured by the full pockets that reinsurers can now boast.
Continue reading Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels
State Farm Closes First Cat Bond of Q2
The first catastrophe bond of the quarter closed on opening day ... and it was a big one. State Farm's Merna Re II transaction was good for $350 million in risk capital, upsized from the earlier reported amount of $250 million. Though large, it doesn't compare to the previous Merna Re catastrophe bond, which set a record at $1.2 billion that remains to be beat.
Merna Re II was oversubscribed, but State Farm only wanted to place $350 million, Thomson Reuters reports (registration required). According to one investor who knew about the transaction, "The deal was oversubscribed at +365 basis points and after being upsized to $350 million." The investor added, "The initial price talk was 365 - 405 bp, but the deal got priced at 365 bp. However, Merna was a simple transaction and State Farm only wanted to place 350 million."
Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market
The first quarter of 2010 will probably go down in history as the worst ever for catastrophe losses.
According to global reinsurance broker Willis Re (WSH), the insurance industry recorded $16 billion in insured losses, from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe, but the largest losses occurred in smaller markets, where it premium volumes aren't as large. Since the third and fourth quarters tend to be the most loss-prone of the year, a quarter that is normally quiet could set the stage for outsized losses.
Continue reading Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market
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