If you do business with Iran, it's probably going to be harder to get insurance coverage. Regulators and lawmakers in the U.S. are looking for stiffer penalties to thrust upon companies that do business with Iran. And insurers, likely acutely aware of how risk can spread, are starting to pull back.

Munich Re (0KFE) and Allianz (AZSEY) announced that they are suspending business in Iran, according to a report by Business Insurance. Neither company, however, stands to lose much. For Allianz, the lost premium is "negligible," and for Munich Re, it's only around $13.6 million.

The catastrophe bond market will be heating up over the next few months, thanks to a combination of favorable market conditions and new investors. Michael Halsband, Vice President at Goldman Sachs (GS), said to Reuters that the cat bond issuance market got off to an early start in January, despite the fact that the first quarter is usually rather quiet. This follows the recent closing of the year's first cat bond, Foundation Re III, by The Hartford (HIG).

According to Halsband, "From January to June this year, $2.7 billion of transactions will mature and most of that is expected to be placed straight back into the ILS [insurance-linked securities] sector," continuing, "In addition, we believe between $1.5 and $2.5 billion of new capital has flowed into dedicated ILS funds and along with the $2.7 billion of maturities. Around $5 billion will be available to be put to work in the cat bond sector."

The Bermuda Stock Exchange is looking for a comeback this year. For 2009, the shares traded on the BSX were off close to 40%, reflecting the brutality of the financial crisis on the island known primarily for its insurance business (oh, and people go on vacation there, too ... and not just insurance people). In 2010, the BSX sees catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities as fundamental to a strong year. A BSX statement reads, "The BSX's listing business has remained buoyant and the BSX has made continued progress in entering and supporting the insurance linked security space." With the 2009 Insurance Amendment Act approved last October, Bermuda hopes to lure cat bond listings away from the Cayman Islands Stock Exchange.

The most important time in the reinsurance business is upon us: the January renewal. The pricing and market conditions that shape the risk-transfer prices paid by insurance companies now set the tone for the transactions to follow for the rest of the year (usually at the beginnings of April, June and July), and 2010 looks like it will provide a drastic departure from 2009. After enduring both the global financial crisis and Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in late 2008, the reinsurance industry recovered quickly, and as the 2010 renewal approached, it was evident that reinsurance rates would decline.

According to Aon Benfield's (AON) report on the Jan. 1, 2010 reinsurance renewal, Remarkable Recovery, increases on reinsurance company balance sheets from the March 2009 lows – in conjunction with low catastrophe insurance losses – put downward pressure on reinsurance rates, with property-catastrophe coverage costing 5% to 15% less than it did a year earlier.

American International Group (AIG) is holding onto its property/casualty division for a while. It originally planned to unload 20% of Chartis (formerly named AIU) via an initial public offering or through a private transaction involving institutional investors.

But CEO Robert Benmosche is concerned that he'd be giving up the operating unit at discount prices. Selling cheap to repay the government won't benefit anybody – not even taxpayers – so he's waiting until an appropriate price can be fetched.

UK insurance companies saw worldwide premium income plunge 18% in 2008 to GBP215.3 billion, according to International Financial Services London, an independent research organization. Its Insurance 2009 report says that 2009 will be a fairly tough year, as well, with premium bouncing back in 2010. Long-term premiums were the challenge last year, as they account for 80% of UK insurance business. The financial crisis and an increase for long-term protection converged on insurance rates, pushing prices lower. Premium income in this corner of the market fell almost 25% to GBP168.1 billion in 2008.

The expectation, last year, that damage to insurers' balance sheets and an increase in claims -- particularly for financial services liability coverage -- didn't materialize, as carriers had enough capital on hand to absorb the losses sustained on both sides of the balance sheet. As a result, insurance pricing has been kept under control.

Does today's record 936 point rally in the Dow mean that happy days are here again? I think it's a gift to investors who want to stop their losses after having seen their portfolios plummet in the last year. Last week, the Dow fell 22%, destroying $2.4 trillion in market value -- it gained back $940 billion of that today. As an unpleasant reminder, after today's 11% rally, the S&P 500 has lost 36% of its value in the last year. And, while I hope I am wrong, I don't see the conditions yet in place to believe that we have reached bottom with the economy and can now expect the earnings growth that would justify investment in stocks

Today's rally feels good but it is highly likely that there was an element of short covering driving up the market. Last Wednesday, the SEC lifted its ban on short selling. Investors who shorted financial and insurance companies were doing quite well last week as fears of another financial bankruptcy mounted. With today's successful save of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), anyone who was short that firm -- or other financial stocks -- was forced to buy those stocks as they spiked in order to repay their stock loans. This probably contributed significantly to a buying panic.

If you need your money in the next six years, you could sell first thing tomorrow morning and you will be able to limit the losses that could come from unpleasant surprises. What kind of surprises? Here are two:

• Credit Default Swap settlements. There is no central repository of information about who owes how much to whom for their CDS obligations. Nor is there solid data on how much these CDS counterparties have in their capital accounts in the event of a default that triggers their obligation to pay up. For instance, I was surprised to learn that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) had a $20 billion obligation in the event of an American International Group (NYSE: AIG) failure. Who else is out there with such obligations? Do each of these counterparties have the ability to get the government to bail them out by taking over the company to prevent them from having to pay? Probably not.

Insurance giant Chubb Corporation (NYSE: CB) last month reported solid first-quarter 2007 earnings of $710 million in net income, $1.71 EPS, compared to $672 million, $1.58 EPS in 1Q 2006. Operating income increased a respectable 5% to $634 million, with operating income per share increasing 8% to a record $1.53. Loss and expense ratio was slightly higher in 1Q 2007 than in 1Q 2006. Chubb was able to post profits despite the fact that net written premiums declined 2% to $2.9 billion for the quarter. The 1% decrease in US-based premiums was more than offset by a 7% increase in premiums outside the US. Chubb's catastrophic reinsurrance business declined by 69% but that was due to Chubb's decision to sell its Re-Harbor Point unit. Income after taxes from property and casualty investments increased 9% to $305 million.

The Chubb personal insurance segment grew 6% to $840 million for 1Q 2007 in terms of the value of premiums with higher catastrophic losses in 2007 than 2006. Despite the major slow down in the home building industry, Chubb's homeowner insurance unit grew 7% while consumer automobile premiums declined 5%. Chubb's commercial insurance declined slightly to $1.3 billion for the quarter, with a renewal rate of 84% for US premiums. Chubb specialty insurance, including professional liability insurance, was flat at $681 million.

Chubb has plenty of money and used $605 million to repurchase almost 12 million shares of its stock. There are still 28 million shares available on the open market. In order to expand its repurchasing program, Chubb offered $1 billion of subordinated capital securities during 1Q 2007 to raise funds for accelerated repurchases. For the time being, Chubb is sticking with FY 2007 operating income per share of $5.00-$5.40. The stock recently closed at $55.64, up $0.38.

Just last week, Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) rosy 1st quarter earnings report made note of how the relatively tranquil weather of 2006 helped its re-insurance business generate handsome profits. Looking around the country today, with L.A. and Georgia threatened by fire, the Midwest flooded and one of the earliest tropical storms in history battering Florida, I wonder what this bodes for such companies in 2007?

In 2006, the ISO's Property Claims Services estimates, U.S. firms paid out $9.2 billion for catastrophic losses, in comparison to $61.2 billion in 2005. These figures make it starkly clear how difficult it is to forecast financial performance for the re-insurance market that absorbs this risk.

Unfortunately, forecasters generally expect a more active storm season this year, as the El Niño that is credited with softening 2006 weather has dissipated.

Totals from the 1st quarter of 2007 were only $1.22 billion, mostly as a result of storms that generated tornadoes. However, historically almost half of all catastrophic loss claims are caused by tropical storms and hurricanes, and that season is just beginning. The second most common loss engine is the tornado, and we're still in the midst of an active season.