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The Fed Decision: This is Not the End of Quantitative Easing!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that proceeds of Treasury securities will continue to be re-invested into additional Treasury securities.

There will also be additional quantitative easing. This will take the form of the purchase of an additional "$600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month," according to the Fed's statement. This was well within the $500 billion to $1 trillion range expected by many economists and strategists. Thus, the current program appears to be largely discounted by the market.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: This is Not the End of Quantitative Easing!

Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?

U.S. Federal ReserveThe world of international finance is a complex web. The U.S. is still the powerhouse when it comes to gross domestic product. Yet, while perched on top of the heap, the U.S. faces major problems with high-level debt and unemployment.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is faced with having to issue massive amounts of debt just to keep pace with the growing deficits. Now the Fed is planning another round of stimulus by buying more treasuries, dubbed QE2.

Continue reading Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?

Is the Fed's 'QE2' About to Leave the Port?

At its September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that (in a nutshell) it knows the economic expansion has slowed, it sees downward price pressure (as opposed to pricing power) in the economy, and it is prepared to take action, if necessary, to both stimulate the economy and fight deflation.

Investors want to know what form would additional quantitative easing, or 'QE2' as the business media calls it, take?

Most likely, it would take the form of additional asset purchases by the Fed, but don't rule out a creative, new tactic by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Continue reading Is the Fed's 'QE2' About to Leave the Port?

The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

George BushThe 2001 Bush income tax cut is one of those issues whose fate has been sealed by objective economic conditions.

Simply, if the U.S. economy had registered robust growth during the final two years of the Bush administration, and no other negative economic events occurred, the tax cut, which will increase the deficit by $336 billion this fiscal year, $295 billion in fiscal 2011, and by more than $320 billion per year through fiscal 2019, perhaps would have had a chance of being extended.

Continue reading The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

Credit Card Debt Continues to Fall

How much do you owe on your credit card? If you owe $4,951 your debit balance is average. This is down from 13% from $5,719, according to Trans Union and The Associated Press.

The credit reporting agency said that this was the first time since 2002 that balances fell below $5,000. Late payments fell to less than 1%, down from 1.17% last year.

Continue reading Credit Card Debt Continues to Fall

Comfort Zone Investing: How Much Money Is Enough?

Comfort Zone InvestingWhen John D. Rockefeller was asked how much money was enough, he replied: "A little bit more." If you're looking to make a little bit more on your investments, here are places to find extra cash. Unfortunately, rates are very low and the emphasis has to be on "little" rather than "more."

Please note: none of these stocks or funds are recommended as buys. They may, however, be a good place to start research.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: How Much Money Is Enough?

Is the Fed out of Ammunition?

The U.S. economic recovery is now proceeding at an anemic pace, a 1.6% GDP growth rate in the second quarter. And to top it off, certain analysts are arguing "the Fed is out of ammunition" and that means a double-dip recession is ahead.

Well, you can consider "betting" against the Fed, and assume even worse economic conditions are ahead, but before you do, contemplate the following:

  • The Fed has already signaled that it's not likely to decrease the size of its balance until it sees sustained evidence of substantial GDP growth, and an increase inf capacity utilization. The calculation here is that the Fed is going to increase its balance sheet, including the purchase of long-term U.S. Treasuries, putting even more downward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Continue reading Is the Fed out of Ammunition?

Good News: Consumers Control Credit Cards in Tough Times

News that credit card debt has fallen to an eight-year low may not be the news that Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) want to hear, but it is good news overall given the employment and economic situation. It's a sign of fiscal discipline during rough times.

Some analysts were a bit worried about credit card debt after the housing crisis; if you are unemployed, it can be easy to run up large debts on credit cards and then default on them.

I am sure there are some out there who think that consumers need to go out and spend more money to stimulate the economy, but that logic is not always good depending on the purchases.

Continue reading Good News: Consumers Control Credit Cards in Tough Times

How Low Will U.S. Mortgage Rates Go?

A frequent question voiced in dinner party circles in this neck of the woods (the metropolitan New York City area) is, 'How low will home mortgage rates go?'

That question is usually accompanied by, 'Should I refinance now, or wait?' if the inquirer already owns his/her residence.

To the latter, I usually respond with, if you can lower your fixed mortgage rate by 1.50 percentage points (150 basis points in Wall Street terms), and total closing costs can be recovered in 30 months, it usually makes sense to refinance.

Continue reading How Low Will U.S. Mortgage Rates Go?

Will Greece Be Able to Pay Back Its Debt?

Greek and EU flagsWill Greece be able to pay an estimated €340 billion or $431 billion in debt in 2013, post intervention, up from the current €270 billion or $342 billion today?

The calculation here is that Greece, which is presently dependent on International Monetary Fund assistance to meet its obligations, will be able to do it, but it will be a close call.

Investors presently demand about 10.6% from Greece to borrow money for 10 years, while fellow eurozone nation Germany, obviously in a magnitude better fiscal position, pays 3.35%. In contrast, the United States pays just 2.56%.

Continue reading Will Greece Be Able to Pay Back Its Debt?

The Week in Preview: FOMC Meeting, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Earnings

Federal ReserveFederal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets again on Tuesday. Though the August meeting of the FOMC is generally uneventful, this time there is speculation about whether the FOMC will resort again to some quantitative easing -- a way of pumping additional money into the financial system.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has already hinted at such a move, given that economic growth has clearly slowed. Last week's disappointing employment numbers are the latest confirmation of that. The question is whether the Fed's decision to take action will happen at this week's meeting, perhaps aggravating deflation fears, or it may wait until the September meeting, at which point it risks impacting the upcoming mid-term elections.

Continue reading The Week in Preview: FOMC Meeting, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Earnings

PIMCO's Gross: Fed to Keep Interest Rates Low for 2-3 Years

PIMCO logoWill mortgage rates, currently at/near generational lows, and bond rates, head lower in the quarters ahead?

That could be the case if one of the world's premiere rate experts is correct. PIMCO's Bill Gross said the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise key, short-term interest rates for two to three years, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Continue reading PIMCO's Gross: Fed to Keep Interest Rates Low for 2-3 Years

Flight-to-Safety Pushes U.S. Interest Rates Lower

Paraphrasing the great Mark Twain, if you don't like the stance of institutional investors, just wait a while.

Case in point: Investor sentiment toward the United States' large budget deficit and national debt.

A scant month ago, the talk was of bond vigilantes turning their wrath on the U.S., from Greece, Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe's debt-plagued nations -- a predicament that would force interest rates up in the world's largest economy.

Continue reading Flight-to-Safety Pushes U.S. Interest Rates Lower

Are U.S. Interest Rates Headed Even Lower?

Think U.S. interest rates are low? Well, they may be headed even lower, so says a key North American bank.

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce said the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate may fall to a 15-month low of 2.75%, if it can fall and remain below a technical support level at 3.00%, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Continue reading Are U.S. Interest Rates Headed Even Lower?

Call it a Milder U.S. Recovery, but Not a Double-Dip (So Far)

Austerity measures in Europe, and concerns that U.S. job growth will be inadequate (below 150,000 new jobs per month) in the third and fourth quarters, has understandably increased concern about a slowing U.S. economic recovery.

But are the stars starting to line-up for something worse than that, from a macroeconomic standpoint, such as a double-dip recession? Perhaps not. Here's why: historically, an inverted yield curve precedes a double-dip recession. So far, the yield curve is not close to inversion.

Continue reading Call it a Milder U.S. Recovery, but Not a Double-Dip (So Far)

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 12:44 PM

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