One issue likely to influence voters' choice for U.S. president in November is the U.S. economy.

The Iraq War/War on Terror, and other issues, such as health care concerns, are likely to be factors as well, but look for concern about the economy to be paramount. Of course, political science teaches us that party identification and voters' attitude toward each candidate will also help determine the vote for president.

(In a nutshell, the political science theory that best predicts vote is PI + ATC + MSI = Vote. Or, Party Identification + Attitude Toward the Candidate + Most Salient Issues = Vote. But more on that, some other time.)

Further, regarding the U.S. economy, there's been considerable coverage regarding its health -- sometimes too much -- but not as much clarity. So, without further ado, some "givens" or clarity about the U.S. economy.

• U.S. GDP: The U.S. economy is experiencing anemic growth, but technically, it is not in a recession. Unemployment is trending up -- now at 6.1% -- put is still relatively low, compared to unemployment levels in previous economic slowdowns. [Note: The above is not to slight anyone who has lost his/her job; each job lost is a serious problem/concern for the person involved.]
• Median income: The median U.S. family income is down. In 2006 the median U.S. family income, adjusted for inflation, was $58,407, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data, down from $59,398 in 2000. Since the economic slowdown started in October 2007, it's possible, but not likely, that median family income rose in 2008, but more than likely it fell. Moreover, it probably fell during that time period, for most families.

There's much speculation today about the possibility of yet another interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve. Some people indicate they think another rate cut would be a good thing. Pardon me while I ask: Are they nuts?

The dollar is already devalued to the point that our trading partners are getting edgy about their export values, and you can forget about foreign investors sticking their money into American companies to help spur development. Low level municipal bond issues could soon become a thing of the past, and that concept of placing money into conventional savings accounts? Yeah okay, I'll get right on that.

Jim Cramer sings a gloom and doom song about 7 million home owners becoming renters, and declares that the nation will be required to swallow $500 billion in losses. He alludes to a wholesale crumbling of major banks. I see no mention in his blog about possible alternate solutions to the trouble that sloppy bankers have caused themselves. Personally, I don't think that ruining the dollar with yet another round of artificially created economic stimulation based on cheap credit is a good long-term solution for our country, although it might allow some of those sloppy bankers another breather before they have to face the music. The thinking that cheap bank credit will help the economy by infusing borrowed money into the stock market and loosening up spending habits is nothing short of a sucker's bet.

Will an interest rate cut by the Fed on Tuesday cause the housing market to change gears? Can a quarter point or even a half point reduction in the base interest rate reinvigorate an economy that's been limping along for the last three quarters? Would our nation's bankers have reason to smile if their cost to borrow declined just a bit?

Don't make me laugh.

At the risk of causing my photo to be placed on a milk carton, I'm going on record as stating my opinion that we need another half point increase in the cost of borrowing in order to gain some manner of control over our current liquidity crisis. This nation's economy is going through something similar to the flight of a flak riddled B52 bomber, on fire with three engines shut down. Yeah, it'll still fly but it's not real graceful and it looks like hell from ground level.

Perhaps keeping interest rates high and tight will place temporary restrictions on overall growth but we need to get a handle on debt and we need to rethink our strategy for maintaining our national economic health. Additionally, when interest rates climb a bit, savings rates climb also as do the activities of foreign investors. Besides, who's calling the current interest rates unacceptable? When I bought my first home, interest rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate home mortgage were running at about 12 percent.

In his last speech prior to the September 18th Federal Reserve meeting, Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke said the world has a savings glut which should help keep interest rates low.

Conversely, while the global savings rate is just fine, the U.S. trade deficit is something that we have to start worrying about, as the Fed Chairman noted that the current account deficit has jumped to 6.2% of GDP, up from just 5.5% in 2004. This has occurred while the U.S. dollar has gotten weaker, which is somewhat counter-intuitive since a lower dollar was suppose to reduce the deficit, but hasn't.

The U.S. and global economies are filled with such contradictions. As the U.S. trade deficit has expanded, the yield on 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury securities stands about 2.4%, up from 1.85% in 2004, but well below the 4% in 1999. While the bellwether economy of the world, the U.S., runs up trade and budget deficits galore, foreign investors continue to hold our currency and use it as the fundamental source for their monetary base.

For July, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from domestic equity funds, slightly more than in June, which followed $10 billion of withdrawals in May, according to a memo sent out by Tom McManus of BofA yesterday.

International investing also "screeched to a halt", as the $2.0 billion in weekly inflows into funds outside of the U.S. have stopped.

This morning, short-term lending rates, the rates for financial institutions to do business with each other, shot up in Europe -- another sign of tight money.

Retailers also released generally weak monthly sales data this morning, with a few exceptions.

We blogged yesterday that the Fed's objective is to control the psychology of inflation expectations, it appears from all the points listed above that the Fed has succeeded. Both the ECB and the Fed announced they are adding reserves to the system. Look for short-term rates to start coming down in September.

China is currently taking a sledgehammer to its economy in an attempt to slowdown growth. On Friday, China officials announced it was hiking short-term rates, increasing the required reserves banks maintain on loans and increasing the band on its currency to let it further appreciate. All powerful tools to halt money supply growth.

These steps follow news reports this week that one of China's more respected entrepreneurs said the Chinese stock market is a bubble. We blogged a few weeks back that Chinese retail investors opened more than one million stock trading accounts in one week and over 10 million the last four months -- greater than the previous four years combined.

Currency appreciation during the short-term always adds more fuel to the fire. As Chinese investors expect the yuan to appreciate, they will convert their massive hoard of US dollars to yuan and then most likely look for additional profits in the stock market. This always ends ugly when the central back finally succeeds at sucking enough money out of the economy and then the market will have a serious correction.

I'd stay away from Chinese stocks. China hosts the Olympics in 2008 and does not want a bubble economy when the world shows up. Stick with the mature economies for now.

My wife and I were at our local Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) branch today and we signed some important papers. The documents we put our names to probably represent the single best investment we have made in our time together. Utilizing a portion of a rather handsome income tax return and some carefully thought out timing, we as a couple today reduced our consumer debt load by approximately 25%.

Being in debt has always made my skin crawl, though I fully understand the reasons why we do it. If you want a nice house and a fine automobile or two, the chances are that the only way you can pull it off is by borrowing the funds to make it possible. That doesn't change the fact though that I hate being in debt, and whenever the opportunities present themselves I do what I reasonably can to reduce my debt level.