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WD-40 (WDFC) updates FY guidance

Multi-purpose lubricant, cleaning, and consumer products company WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) is posting such good earnings that CEO Garry Ridge recently announced the company has revised FY guidance upwards. Net sales are predicted to grow 7-9% to $307-$313 million. FY EPS are predicted to be $1.70-$1.75 with net income of $29-$30 million. Ridge maintains these are viable numbers despite the capital expenditures necessary for WD-40 to open a direct sales operation in China by late 2007. WD-40 has posted these numbers despite increases in the cost of goods due to increases in the cost of raw materials, and a 10% increase in administrative expenses in 3Q 2007. Advertising and sales expenses are also on the increase by 12% as WD-40 moves into new markets outside the U.S.

WD-40 has no choice but to seek new international markets. Sales in Europe are up 23% in 3Q 2007 and up 17% in Asia/Pacific, not yet including China. These double-digit increases make up for the fact that sales in North America are down 2.5% in 3Q 2007. This decline is caused primarily by a 15% drop in sales of household products, which makes very little sense considering the company's flagship product, WD-40, posted a sales increase of just under 16%, and hand-cleaning products posted an impressive 12% increase. WD-40 makes well-known and widely respected cleaning products such as X-14 for cleaning soap scum and Carpet Fresh for removing spots in carpet. Granted, these products are a bit more expensive than competing brands, but these products unarguably work well and are found in the cleaning cabinets of many U.S. homes. After getting its China facility up and running full speed, perhaps WD-40 needs to turn its attention to convincing American consumers of the value of WD-40 products, not just their price.

Overall, 3Q net sales were up 6.2% and up 8.1% for 1Q-3Q 2007 inclusive. In addition to raising FY guidance, the company announced a $0.25 per share dividend.

The dollar and relative sector performance

Contrary to expectations, the dollar has staged a strong rally in recent days. If history is any guide, a rising greenback will also have implications for U.S. share prices.

According to Bloomberg, the recent uptick has been spurred by "a worldwide rush for dollars as banks and fund managers scramble to pay back loans used to buy risky mortgage securities." Short-covering by bearish speculators has added further fuel to the fire.

Given the impact that currency moves can have on cross-border investment flows and the bottom lines of publicly-listed U.S. companies, many of which have significant exposure to export markets, it makes sense to try and figure out which sectors may benefit from further dollar appreciation and which may lose out.

Continue reading The dollar and relative sector performance

U.S. dollar poised to move...upward?

Lately, sentiment towards the U.S. dollar has grown increasingly negative and American investors have continued to weight portfolios in favor of overseas markets.

Yet, despite all the bearishness, the greenback has managed to recover smartly from its April lows.

In fact, on a technical basis, the U.S. Dollar Index, which reflects the unit's value against a basket of six other major currencies, has made what appears to be an important bottom. With the recent move upward through a key downtrend, the currency seems poised to rally even further.

One reason for the turnaround may be the prospect that U.S. interest rates will continue rising instead of falling, as many marketwatchers had been expecting only a short time ago.

Nervous profit-taking by some holders of foreign securities looking to lock in substantial paper profits, as well as short-covering by frustrated short-sellers among the large contingent of dollar bears, may also be contributing factors.

Finally, there may be "safe haven" buying of the greenback taking place on worries that global markets and geopolitical conditions are becoming increasingly unsettled.

Whatever the reasons, it's time to reconsider an overly negative stance on the U.S. currency.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- MMM, AA, MO, AXP, & AIG: Part 1

More than a few optimistic reports have been written as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) continues to climb to new highs. Given my value perspective and having run a few stock screens, some of the 30 stocks in the Dow have actually floated to the top. I will be reviewing the entire Dow in search of deep value and summarizing on my top three (10%) from a value perspective. The following is my view of the first five Dow stocks.

3M Company (NYSE: MMM) appears to be fairly valued from my perspective. I like the low debt ratio of 0.3 and higher than average yield of 2.19%. Given the price-to-book of 5.94 though, I think 3M will have to continue to expand its earnings overseas to interest me further. This is a quality stock, with good margins and good returns on equity, assets, and investment that are all higher than its lower than average P/E of 15. I view this stock as a good investment but not a great investment, and one that provides some downside protection.

Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA) is on everyone's watch list, and for good reason. It reminds me of a line from the long-running TV show Married with Children, where Al Bundy shouts out to his wife Peg after a long day at the shoe store, "Either feed me, or feed me to something, I just want to be part of the food chain." There have been rumors galore that Alcoa might fall prey to a buyout from BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (NYSE: BHP) or another large player wanting to expand its North American presence. In the meantime, Alcoa has announced that it has an interest in acquiring Alcan Aluminum (NYSE: AL).

At 2.28, the price-to-book ratio of Alcoa is less than half that of 3M, and the price-to-sales is half too at 1.14. The debt levels are low and the price-to-cash-flow is low. Alcoa pays a lower than average (for the DJIA) yield of 1.75, but still respectable. For whatever reason, investors may be looking for soft pricing in aluminum related to concerns about a slowing world economy. While this may be a concern in the U.S., international growth does not seem to be slowing down. Alcoa is up about 35% from last year's lows, but only a couple of dollars from its highs of two years ago, so its path has been erratic. The low metrics, expanding international markets, and the high probability of consolidation in the market should create future pricing power. This does seem like a value play to me.

Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- MMM, AA, MO, AXP, & AIG: Part 1

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 12:45 PM

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