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Korean sovereign, pension funds preparing to load up on equities

Its sights set on the United States and Asia, South Korea's $30 billion sovereign wealth fund is hunting for equities. Korea Investment Corp. (KIC) doesn't see bonds outperforming stocks over the long term, which is what has prompted the move.

Once the reallocation is executed, equities will account for half of KIC's "traditional" investments. Today, it stands at 40%. High quality equities and fixed income securities comprise 90% of KIC's portfolio, with the rest, one would gather, consisting of "non-traditional" investments.

Continue reading Korean sovereign, pension funds preparing to load up on equities

Japan's economy falls its hardest since 1974

Japan, which boasts the second-largest economy in the world, is facing exceptionally large recessionary pressures as well, as its gross domestic product recoiled at a year-over-year rate of 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

This marked the nation's worst GDP number since the first quarter of 1974, when the oil crisis helped contribute to a 13.1% collapse. The dismal figure, worse than anything posted (yet) by the U.S. or struggling European nations, also exposes Japan as among the hardest hit by a sweeping global recession. (Well, at least misery loves company). Some are speculating that the crisis could prompt Japanese officials to write up another stimulus package, which would join two packages, together worth 50 trillion yen ($545 billion), that were announced late last year.

Continue reading Japan's economy falls its hardest since 1974

American icons owned abroad: Falling dollar, cheaper U.S. assets spurring trend of foreign ownership

Imagine this typical American strip mall: a Trader Joe's, a Sunglass Hut, a Caribou Coffee. Maybe there's a restaurant that serves hot dogs with French's mustard, and a choice of Good Humor ice cream or homemade Toll House chocolate chip cookies for dessert. Across the street is a CITGO, Shell and a 7-Eleven.

All this sounds so American. It could -- and does -- exist all across the country. Yet all of these companies and brands are foreign-owned.

Some of these marquee names were always foreign-owned, but overseas firms are increasingly buying up American properties. Most recently, beer drinkers were shocked when Belgian beer juggernaut InBev put the moves on Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD). [Update: On July 14, Anheuser-Busch agreed to be acquired by InBev for $52 billion.] How could InBev attempt to turn Budweiser into just another of its stable of international brands? We were surprised not only that those European beer snobs even liked our watery brew, but by the apparent ease with which foreigners could try to snap up American icons.

It's not just American brands and companies getting sold. Foreign companies were the buyers in four of the top 13 U.S. commercial real estate deals in 2007, according to Real Estate Alert newsletter. Another foreign acquisition of notable Manhattan real estate was the Dubai-based Jumeirah group's 2006 purchase of the Essex House on Central Park South.

Continue reading American icons owned abroad: Falling dollar, cheaper U.S. assets spurring trend of foreign ownership

Technicals suggest next best overseas bet could be ... Japan

So far during 2007, Japan's broad-based Topix Index has lost 12.2%, while the benchmark Nikkei-225 Stock Average has given back 11.1%.

In U.S. dollar terms, the Topix is down 7.6%, the fifth worst performer out of 90 selected global indexes, according to Bloomberg data. The Nikkei is off 6.4%, placing it sixth from the bottom.

On that basis alone, it's probably worth having a look at Japan as a contrarian play for 2008, especially given how well other foreign markets have fared in recent times.

Continue reading Technicals suggest next best overseas bet could be ... Japan

Best Buy (BBY) planning second store in Shanghai

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) continues to aggressively look at China as its next retailing conquest, and the largest consumer electronics chain in the U.S. has just said that it plans on a second location in Shanghai to firmly cement its plans there.

The company stated that it still needs to find a suitable site, but if it does, another Shanghai store is in tow sometime in 2008. The retailer's existing Shanghai location -- in the downtown Xujiahui area -- opened in early 2007, and has already proved successful enough to make Best Buy's international development team seek another location. My, my -- that was quick!

Best Buy CEO Brad Anderson says that the retailer is studying China and is not making snap judgments in terms of its expansion strategy there, saying that, "Best Buy needs experience in the China market, but it takes time." The only problem is that the competition is becoming more fierce every day, with companies already familiar with doing business with Chinese consumers. The learning curve needs to accelerate in Best Buy's case or it could find itself behind.

It's very strategic for Best Buy to study the competitive landscape and brand itself as required in China's rapidly growing retail market, but in addition to that it needs to understand the needs of the Chinese consumer more than anything. That will take time and patience, but every quarter still counts here.

Not just emerging, but on top

Most investors are probably aware that the stock markets of "emerging," or developing, nations have been the big winners so far this year.

Since January, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has outpaced the MSCI World index by a hefty 18.1%.

But even then, the divergence in performance between various regions has been striking, with some of these traditionally volatile markets doing far better than others.

For instance, the "BRICs" -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- have beaten the emerging markets benchmark by 7.7%, while its solely European-based counterpart has lagged by 13.65%, or nearly twice as much.

It just goes to show that when it comes to investing overseas, choosing the right stocks, sectors, and "themes" can really make a world of difference.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Guess which developed region equity market has done best this year?

Although many investors believe that Asian equities have led the pack lately, it has actually been the Nordic region that has been the star performer, at least as far as developed markets are concerned.

So far this year, the MSCI Nordic index has outpaced the MSCI World index by 13.8 percentage points. The MSCI Europe index has edged out that broad benchmark by 1.7 percentage points.

In contrast, the MSCI Far East and Pacific indexes have trailed the World index by 8 and 3.6 percentage points, respectively.

While that divergence seems at odds with the breathtaking share-price run-ups that have been seen in places like Brazil and China, its worth remembering that those nations and others like it are categorized as emerging markets.

I'll have more on the relative performance in 2007 of those high-flyers tomorrow.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Bernanke's next target: The U.S. greenback

With gold going through the roof since mid-August, jumping from $660 to $743 per ounce, Mr. Bernanke has to be asking whether he is stepping too hard on the monetary gas peddle. Is gold heading higher due to concerns of global inflation or is it heading higher because the world's safe haven, the U.S. dollar, has been getting weaker and weaker?

Expect Mr. Bernanke, the U.S. Treasury secretary and central bankers around the world to find out. The U.S. dollar-Euro exchange rate has gotten completely out of hand with the euro approaching 140 to the dollar versus the 85 level in 2002. Since the dollar has been depreciating against the euro, gold has shot through the roof.

Historically, despite all the talk about comparative purchasing power and differing short-term interest rates determining fair values for currencies, currency values are determined by the trend-is-your-friend mentality of traders. They lever up and ride the trade until the treasury secretaries around the world get together and reverse that trend.

Expect the euro's appreciation versus the dollar to end the same way and expect it to happen soon. Bernanke has to determine if gold is going higher because too much money is chasing too few goods, or gold is trading higher because global investors would rather hold gold than an overvalued euro.

With sentiment so bearish on the dollar, it seems like a good time to go long the U.S. greenback.

Monetary tightness unfolding fast

For July, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from domestic equity funds, slightly more than in June, which followed $10 billion of withdrawals in May, according to a memo sent out by Tom McManus of BofA yesterday.

International investing also "screeched to a halt", as the $2.0 billion in weekly inflows into funds outside of the U.S. have stopped.

This morning, short-term lending rates, the rates for financial institutions to do business with each other, shot up in Europe -- another sign of tight money.

Retailers also released generally weak monthly sales data this morning, with a few exceptions.

We blogged yesterday that the Fed's objective is to control the psychology of inflation expectations, it appears from all the points listed above that the Fed has succeeded. Both the ECB and the Fed announced they are adding reserves to the system. Look for short-term rates to start coming down in September.

A world of rising long-term rates

Lately, commentators have noted that U.S. long-term interest rates are on the rise. As of today, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is hovering just below its late-January closing peak of 4.89%.

Yet this is not a purely domestic phenomenon. The same also holds true for bond markets around the world.

In each of seven selected international markets -- Europe, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Australia, and Hong Kong -- 10-year interest rates are at or near 2007 peaks. In four of them -- Europe, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and Australia -- long-term yields are not far off 12-month highs.

Amid signs that many central banks outside the U.S. are also poised to boost short-term rates in their own countries, some might say that the monetary environment is becoming less supportive for share prices.

So much for excess global liquidity?

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

China hikes interest rates, raises reserve requirements

China is currently taking a sledgehammer to its economy in an attempt to slowdown growth. On Friday, China officials announced it was hiking short-term rates, increasing the required reserves banks maintain on loans and increasing the band on its currency to let it further appreciate. All powerful tools to halt money supply growth.

These steps follow news reports this week that one of China's more respected entrepreneurs said the Chinese stock market is a bubble. We blogged a few weeks back that Chinese retail investors opened more than one million stock trading accounts in one week and over 10 million the last four months -- greater than the previous four years combined.

Currency appreciation during the short-term always adds more fuel to the fire. As Chinese investors expect the yuan to appreciate, they will convert their massive hoard of US dollars to yuan and then most likely look for additional profits in the stock market. This always ends ugly when the central back finally succeeds at sucking enough money out of the economy and then the market will have a serious correction.

I'd stay away from Chinese stocks. China hosts the Olympics in 2008 and does not want a bubble economy when the world shows up. Stick with the mature economies for now.

Analyst downgrades 5-11-07: AMGN, ICE, RTP and WEN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Amgen (AMGN), Wendy's (WEN), webMethods (WEBM), Global Crossing (GLBC) and International Securities Exchange (ISE) topped out today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • A host of companies shot down Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) today:
    • Lazard cut the drugmaker to Sell from Buy while Citigroup cut them to Sell from Hold. JP Morgan and HSBC downgraded Amgen to Neutral from Overweight while Morgan Stanley cut shares to Equal-Weight from Overweight.
  • Elsewhere, Wendy's Int'l (NYSE: WEN) was downgraded by Citigroup to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Deutsche Bank cut shares of webMethods Inc (NASDAQ: WEBM) to Hold from Buy as they expect the software AG merger to go through.
  • Global Crossing (NASDAQ: GLBC) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank following the company's Q1 miss and revised guidance.
  • The International Securities Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was downgraded at Banc of America given potential risks to the Eurex bid. They are not counting on rival bids and recommend moving to the sidelines...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • HSBC downgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Neutral from Overweight.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded King Pharma (NYSE: KG) to Equal Weight from Overweight. Pacific
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required)

Mig33 grabs a quick $10 million in venture capital

Australian-based Mig33, instant messaging and mobile VoIP provider, has snached up a cool $10 million in venture capital, reports Red Herring. Mig33 is centered around the mobile communications business and competes against such names as Talkster, Sooner, VoxLib, Nimbuzz, AIM/Google Talk (NASDAQ: GOOG), Yahoo! Voice (NASDAQ: YHOO), and eBay's (NASDAQ: EBAY) Skype. Mig33 claims it can save mobile phone users significant money with its international calling card services. I fail to see what services that Mig33 offers to consumers beyond the tried and true standard fare also offered by its competitors, but given the fact that it already has a reported 4 million users, it is obviously doing something right.

What strikes me as being very different about Mig33 is the ability it gives to its subscribers for earning discounts, and even generating profit, by acting as brokers for Mig33 calling services. Mig33 refers to its customers as "affiliates" and will allow these customers to act as secondary marketers of prepaid calling credits. Affiliates are even allowed to buy calling credits in bulk and then may create and market their own prepaid mig33 calling cards. To some people this may look like a pyramid type arrangement on its face, but it's nothing like that. The reality is that no one is required to act as a sales agent simply by virtue of being a subscriber. Secondary sales are completely voluntary and are a benefit of Mig33 services provided as an adjunct to its standard services.

More and more we shall see the "give something back" proposition becoming a facet of successful business models. As companies such as Mig33 offer revenue-generating options to its customers, we shall see those companies reap the rewards. It is this type of revenue-enhanced customer service, similar to Google Adwords and MetaCafe, which are now setting the new trends. Now, is it possible that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is considering a working agreement with Mig33 as the next phase of its own VoIP program?

Ummm ... could be!

Soon, the sun may never set on the Starbucks empire

Is Starbucks Corporation (Nasdaq: SBUX) becoming one of those core holdings that just about every investor should seriously consider adding to his/her portfolio?

Apparently so. For Starbucks the news, and the growth outlook, seems to just get better and better.

Starbucks has as a strategic goal a store target of 40,000 stores worldwide - up 10,000 from the previous target.

Further, the operative phrase in the above statement is the word "worldwide." Currently with about 10,200 coffee shops, Starbucks plans to enter four new markets in 2007: Brazil, Egypt, India, and Russia - which would place company operations in 40 countries. Starbucks hopes to have a coffee house in about 50 countries by 2011. Starbucks' shares closed down 6 cents Friday to $36.42.

Continue reading Soon, the sun may never set on the Starbucks empire

Starbucks' share price plunge: Is its business maturing?

Starbucks cold drinkAfter holding its quarterly earnings call on Wednesday, Starbucks (SBUX) was hammered: it had fallen 12% to $29.38 in pre-market trading as of 8:30 a.m Thursday. The stock recovered a bit during the day to close Thursday at $30.64 for a $2.66, or 7.99% drop from the prior day's close. I would have expected more upside this morning, but the stock is only up 16 cents in pre-market as of 8 a.m. (and it was negative about a half hour ago).

What explains the plunge? While Motley Fool staffers confess to finding Starbucks "consistently impressive numbers" becoming almost boring, Britain's The Guardian focuses on the company's admission that wait times in the morning for frappucino and other cold drinks are lagging behind customer demand, just as much of Wall Street seems to have done.

Of course, the explanation is not as simple as these factors. When a company consistently reports same-store earnings at the high-end of expectations, this quarter's report at the low end of expectations (4% actual, with prediction being between 3 and 7%), may strongly reinforce what many believe: namely that there could not possibly be more growth potential left in this seemingly ubiquitous enterprise.

For those with that frame of mind, a low result on earnings could be just the clue they need to decide that the fruit is off the vine, and Starbucks is now a mature business.

That will certainly be the situation some day, but it's not a belief I share yet. I'll keep looking at the company with great interest -- especially internationally, which is where, if this stock is to rebound, its future lies.

Michael Canfield is a private investor, a business and media writer, living in Seattle. He doesn't own stock in Starbucks.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 06:10 AM

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