How can exports not rebound? Last year ended on a sour note after posting record results, and 2009 is by all accounts likely to be ugly. The tourism and travel industry is expected to shed more than 200,000 jobs this year. Fortunately, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. The U.S. Department of Commerce expects international visits to the United States to come back in 2010 – after its first forecasted year of decline (i.e., 2009) since 2003.

This year, international travel to the United States is expected to fall 8%. The following year, however, U.S. travel exports are expected to gain 5%, with 5% annual increases through the end of 2013. We'll come out ahead in all this, but it's going to take some time.

Will the influx of foreign visitors over the next four years be enough to turn the travel industry in the United States around? It's too soon to tell right now, and much will depend on the contributions made by domestic routes. Needless to say, even this glimmer of hope must be welcome to investors committed to the airline and hotel sectors.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) has only just come out of Chapter 11, and already is making a big splash by negotiating a deal for a possible order of 125 of Boeing Co.'s (NYSE: BA) new 787 Dreamliner aircraft. The purchase would have a total value [subscription required] of $20 billion and would be spread over several years. The company could still make a last minute switch to Airbus planes, but that seems unlikely.

Delta's purchase of the planes would be primarily aimed at increasing its routes overseas. As fare competition has heated up in the U.S., international routes have become more profitable. Short haul flights within the country require frequent maintenance of planes as they move in and out of airports. They also require more fuel for large numbers of take-offs and landings.

Flying to destinations outside the U.S., using larger planes, means more passengers per flight and larger business class and first class seating, bringing up the yield-per-passenger. While in bankruptcy, it was harder for Delta to secure the financing for a large fleet that could fly to destinations outside the US.

The move is a smart one for Delta, if international air travel remains profitable ten years out. A long-term investment in a new fleet depends on the trend being Delta's friend.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.