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<generator>Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[What is AOL worth?]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/twx/" rel="tag">Time Warner (TWX)</a></p><p>On May 31st, BloggingStocks' parent company, <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/time-warner-inc/twx/nys">Time Warner Inc</a>.'s (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/time-warner-inc/twx/nys">TWX</a>) president Jeff Bewkes publicly mused about taking AOL public, according to <a href="http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/419-bewkes-wishlist-creating-internet-currency-with-aol-spinoff/">paidContent.org</a>.</p>
<p>Bewkes noted that AOL was at a competitive disadvantage due its lack of an "internet public currency." While that currency enabled AOL to offer <a href="http://www.wsws.org/articles/2000/jan2000/merg-j14.shtml">$166 billion</a> in stock to buy Time Warner back in January 2000, <strong>what would it be worth today?</strong></p>
<p><strong>$24 billion.</strong> That's one guess made by multiplying my estimate of AOL's 2007 revenues of $6 billion -- calculated by quadrupling AOL's <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105705/000095014407004089/g06735e10vq.htm">Q1 2007 revenues of $1.5 billion</a> -- by a price/sales ratio of 4. The latter is based on a review of the price/sales ratios of comparable pure-play internet content firms such as:</p>
<ul>
    <li>
    <div><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/yahoo-inc/yhoo/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">Yahoo! Inc.</a> (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/yahoo-inc/yhoo/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">YHOO</a>): <a href="http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Page=PriceRatios&amp;Symbol=YHOO">5.9 </a></div>
    </li>
    <li>
    <div><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/cnet-networks-inc/cnet/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">CNET Networks, Inc.</a> (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/cnet-networks-inc/cnet/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">CNET</a>): <a href="http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Page=PriceRatios&amp;Symbol=cnet">3.5</a> </div>
    </li>
    <li>
    <div><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/baidu-com-inc-ads/bidu/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">Baidu.com Inc.</a> (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/baidu-com-inc-ads/bidu/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">BIDU</a>): <a href="http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/compare.asp?Page=PriceRatios&amp;Symbol=bidu">37.1</a> </div>
    </li>
</ul>
<p>I think such a public offering could unlock value because at $24 billion, AOL would be worth 30% of TWX's current $80 billion market capitalization, even though it represents only 12.5% of TWX revenues and a mere 4% of its assets. Moreover, AOL stock could motivate staff and fuel acquisitions.</p>
<p><em>Peter Cohan is president of</em> <a href="http://petercohan.com/"><em>Peter S. Cohan &amp; Associates</em></a><em>, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also </em><a href="http://www3.babson.edu/Academics/Divisions/management/facultyprofile.cfm?pageid=391236"><em>teaches management at Babson College</em></a><em> and edits </em><a href="http://petercohan.blogspot.com/2007/01/cohan-letter-up-15-in-2006.html"><em>The Cohan Letter</em></a><em>. He has no financial interest in Time Warner stock.</em></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/">What is AOL worth?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 19:00:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/910467/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/04/what-is-aol-worth/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>AOL</category><category>Baidu.com</category><category>BIDU</category><category>CNET</category><category>internet public currency</category><category>IPOs</category><category>Jeff Bewkes</category><category>paidContent.org</category><category>Time Warner</category><category>TWX</category><category>Yahoo!</category><category>YHOO</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cohan]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 04 Jun 2007 19:00:00 EST</pubDate></item></channel></rss>
