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InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 13:57:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Presidential Elections

Stock, oil and related futures provide valuable clues for investors/readers concerning where these market / commodities are headed.

With the above as background, Intrade.com's futures for the 2008 U.S. presidential election currently predict a decisive victory for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, over U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona.

InTrade's Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor is projecting an electoral college vote total of: Obama 364, McCain, 174. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Futures for Obama win are high

Futures on an Obama win are at 86.4. The 86.4 level means that the market predicts there is an 86.4% chance of this event happening. All Intrade markets trade between 0 and 100.

Futures on a McCain win are at 14.4, signaling that the market believes there's a 14.4% of McCain winning the election.

Continue reading InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174

InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 23 Oct 2008 13:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Clinton's primary bet - turning $100 into $10,000

Tom Taulli — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:03:00 EST

Filed under: Presidential Elections

So far, it's been a topsy-turvy presidential race. Of course, now the pundits are pontificating on how the pollsters missed the Hillary Clinton victory in New Hampshire.

But, there was also a big miss on the international gambling markets.

That is, on the Intrade prediction site, there was a 100-to-1 odds bet for a Hillary win (the website is based in Dublin, which I presume is a bit friendlier than the U.S. about online gambling). Yes, a mere $100 wager could have turned into a cool $10,000.

For the most part, the thinking is that Intrade tends to be fairly accurate. After all, the "profit motive" can be very powerful.

But sometimes things go awry.

So what's the sentiment on Intrade? Yes, people are wagering that Hillary will become the nominee (with a 59% probability).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Clinton's primary bet - turning $100 into $10,000 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Gore passes Obama for Democratic nomination

Kevin Kersten — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 18:04:00 EST

Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), Politics

Apparently winning the Noble Peace price will help you while not running for President. After winning the Noble Peace prize today -- shared with a UN committee -- Al Gore jumped about 5% to a 13% chance on getting the Democratic nomination according to the Intrade.com prediction markets, passing Obama who is at 11.5%. With a 69% chance of winning the democratic nomination Hillary Clinton isn't really in any danger, but I have to give Gore credit. He is doing really well for not even running.

While neither is likely, the oil companies could be big losers if Gore gets in the white house. I wouldn't short them yet; but companies like Exxon Mobile Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) would be losers.

What are your thoughts?

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Gore passes Obama for Democratic nomination originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Oct 2007 18:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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