Today was another up day and you have to wonder if the woes of the world we all felt a few short months ago are just gone for good. Bernanke said the recession is effectively lower. The inventories are getting low enough that a manufacturing surge could come. And inflationary fears are not scaring traders. If this was a football game, it seems that the bulls keep scoring, and the bears just got a couple accidental safety scores.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,683.41 +56.61 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,052.63 +3.29 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,102.64 +10.86 (0.52%)

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By any historical standard, it's been a horrible recession. Just surviving has been a big accomplishment.

However, this "survivor mentality" can be a problem. If anything, it can prevent your business from eventually growing.

Growing? Yes, that's right. Taking a look at the recent economic indicators, it does look like the economy is on the mend.

This week the U.S. Postal Service hiked the rates on postage, covering a majority of the mail services like first-class mail, first-class international, postcards, and special services. So, the price for a one-ounce first-class stamp has gone from $0.42 to $0.44.

And, I'm sure we'll continue to see more increases.

Unfortunately, this is yet more bad news for small businesses, which are trying to deal with the recession.

Any way you slice it, the housing industry data remains very ugly. Yesterday, the day started off with the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national home price index showing a month-over-month drop of 0.4% in July from June, and a year-over-year decline of 3.9%.

This was followed up by data points from Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) which were simply not good.

• Revenue fell 44%
• 41% drop in the number of home deliveries
• 6% decrease in the average sales price of homes delivered in 2007
• Construction starts were down 62% year-over-year

Wow! Talk about poor results. While it is definitely still too early to buy these stocks, the numbers are so bad that it is time for investors to start doing their homework. The slicing of home inventories and the huge write-down of land for new construction means the industry is aggressively cutting back on inventory. This means we should see things begin to stabilize in the next twelve to eighteen months.

Hot Topic Inc (NASDAQ: HOTT), the specialty retailer that operates the Hot Topic and Torrid concepts, might be worth a look. The stock is way off from its $30 high and is now selling for $11, and its poor operating performance could be bottoming.

While same-store sales continued to slide in May, down 6.1%, margins for the retailer are beginning to improve. Also, SAC Capital has racked up 5.1% of Hot Topic stock, or 2.3 million shares up from the 245K shares it had disclosed at the end of the first quarter.

With bad inventory out the door and movies like the Transformers and a whole new generation of video game consoles and games coming to market, this trendy retailer stock could be ready for a nice turnaround.

Grant Case, a student at Indiana U.'s Kelly School of Business, posted a wonderfully detailed study yesterday of Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) that suggests the manufacturer is hip-deep in unsold bikes. According to the numbers posted on the SeekingAlpha web site, by the end of 4th quarter 2006 over 40,000 more bikes sat on showroom floors than the same quarter in 2004. He estimates this dealer build contributed around $1.00 to HOG's EPS over the past two years.

Harley's first quarter figures are bound to be a bit screwy due to the strike that they recently resolved, and Case speculates that the company might take this opportunity to bury thieir inventory problem in an overall poor quarterly report. Coupled with the exposure of HDFS's bike financing in the credit crunch that Michael Rainey blogged about here recently, the earnings announcement on April 19th should be more interesting than most.

Certainly having a jammed showroom when the spring weather first hits is a dealer's dream, but entering next winter with cobwebs on the apehangers is a dismal prospect. Stockholders should be crossing their fingers for some good riding weather, and soon.

Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN), the wireless chip powerhouse, agreed with National Semiconductor Corporation's (NYSE: NSM) report last week that the wireless semiconductor inventory overhang is over. Management comments, made earlier this year, expecting the current market correction to be short-lived, are proving correct.

TI said the inventory overhang is winding down and the company should return to growth in 2Q07. Historically, during the past 10 years, TI has 3% to 4% revenue growth in the June quarter.

National Semi last week reported in-line results with a 14% drop in sequential revenue. However, National said backlog, a good measure of future business, is starting to increase.

National also guided gross margins up to 60% and mentioned the possibility of 65% gross margins, a very good number.

TI narrowed its revenue guidance for 1Q07 to $3.07 billion to $3.22 billion, in-line with previous guidance. EPS was also narrowed to $0.29 to $0.33 per share.

It is a tough time of the year to recommend semi stocks. Historically, semi stocks peak out in March to April and would have a difficult time until the Fall. However, there seems to be some good data points suggesting the worst is over in the semi space.

A strategy I'd consider -- buying some stock now on the good news and adding to your position during the summer doldrums.