"The third year of the Presidential cycle has historically been the most profitable year of the cycle in terms of stock market performance," says market historian and money manager Jim Stack.

The editor of InvesTech Market Analyst explains, "This third year of the four-year cycle is often characterized by an accommodative Fed policy, and usually accompanied by a stable and growing economy.

"Characteristically, most of the third year gains come in the first half of the year where the first and second quarters are among the strongest in the entire cycle.

Continue reading Market Historian: Top Sectors for the Presidential Cycle

Market Historian: Top Sectors for the Presidential Cycle originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 21 Jan 2011 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011. This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com.

"For over 50 years, Medtronic (MDT) has been the premier medical device manufacturer in the marketplace," notes Jim Stack.

The money manager and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst explains, "With the invention of the battery-powered pacemaker in the mid 1950s, Medtronic began a long string of technological innovations.

Continue reading Top Picks 2011: Medtronic (MDT)

Top Picks 2011: Medtronic (MDT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Jan 2011 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"With short-term money markets paying close to 0% and residual stock market fears from the 2008 financial crisis, investors are being lured into bonds without recognizing the risks," says Jim Stack.

The money manager, noted for his "safety-first" investing principles, accurately forecast the financial crisis and housing bubble -- as well as many of the market's major turning points over the last two decades.

Now, the editor of InvesTech Market Analyst sees increasing risks in the bond market and offers six rules for bond investors to help avoid undue risk.

Continue reading Six 'Safety-First' Rules for Bond Investors

Six 'Safety-First' Rules for Bond Investors originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Oct 2010 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"ConocoPhillips (COP), our latest Featured Investment, is integrated energy company with world class production of more than 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.

The editor of InvesTech Market Analyst explains, "The firm's resource base is large and broadly diversified, providing a solid foundation for this "safety-first" investment.

"A top producer in North America, Conoco's global footprint and wide-ranging operations extend to the North Sea and many other key areas including Australia, Qatar and China.

Continue reading ConocoPhillips (COP): 'Safety-First' Energy Buy

ConocoPhillips (COP): 'Safety-First' Energy Buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Sep 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"In looking for new opportunities, we will continue to focus on a combination of value, growth and financial strength ... all key attributes of PepsiCo (PEP), our latest featured investment," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.

The editor of Investech Market Analyst explains, "At first mention of its name, PepsiCo might not be a company that peaks your interest. It's often viewed as just another stodgy stock that depends on its flagship soft drink line to carry the business along.

Continue reading PepsicCo (PEP): Value, Growth and Financial Strength

PepsicCo (PEP): Value, Growth and Financial Strength originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jul 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Microsoft (MSFT) and its broad product line have become such staples of modern life that the company hardly warrants an introduction," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.

The editor of Investech Market Analyst explains, "From its ubiquitous Windows operating system and Office productivity suite (Word, Excel, Outlook, etc.) to server products and entertainment devices, the vast majority of us use numerous Microsoft products every day.

Continue reading Microsoft (MSFT): Poised for Long-Term Gains

Microsoft (MSFT): Poised for Long-Term Gains originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Jun 2010 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Jim Stack: Reasons to Stay in the 'Bullish Camp'

Jim Stack: Reasons to Stay in the 'Bullish Camp' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 May 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Darden (DRI): A 'Bargain' in Casual Dining

Darden (DRI): A 'Bargain' in Casual Dining originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Apr 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Devon Energy (DVN) is refocusing itself," says money manager and advisor Jim Stack. In his InvesTech Market Analyst he says, "We continue to view Devon as an untapped opportunity."

"Non-core holdings are being shed, and the proceeds are being used to accelerate growth of the company's premier North American assets."

Continue reading Jim Stack Sticks with Devon (DVN)

Jim Stack Sticks with Devon (DVN) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"PepsiCo (PEP), my top pick for 2010, remains underrated by the market," says Jim Stack.

The money manager and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst suggests, "All too often, it's viewed as a stodgy soft drink company, fully reliant on its namesake soda line. That's a misconception." Here, he sets the record straight.

Continue reading Top Picks for 2010: PepsiCo (PEP)

Top Picks for 2010: PepsiCo (PEP) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 24 Dec 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We're always ready to shift to an individual stock when we see an attractive investment opportunity like Equifax (NYSE: EFX)," says money manager and advisor Jim Stack, who incidentally, accurately called both the 2008 market top and the March bottom.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he explains, "The stock is attractively valued based on revenue, cash flow, and earnings power of the company." Here's his review of the credit reporting agency.

"Equifax is in the business of supplying clients with the power of information and is most commonly known as a credit reporting agency. The 'credit score' your banker looks at when you apply for a loan is derived from information supplied by Equifax and its competitors.

Continue reading Equifax (EFX): A good credit

Equifax (EFX): A good credit originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"There's a misconception out there about PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP); all too often, it's viewed as a stodgy soft drink company, fully reliant on its namesake soda line," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he suggests, "In reality, PepsiCo owns some of the most sought after brands in the world, including Gatorade, Tropicana, Frito-Lay and Doritos." Here's his review of the company and its outlook.

"PepsiCo does business in more than 200 countries worldwide, including key emerging market economies like China and India and, perhaps most important of all, it's a growth company with analysts expecting long-term future earnings growth of 10-12% per year.

Continue reading PepsiCo (PEP): An 'under-rated' growth company

PepsiCo (PEP): An 'under-rated' growth company originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The conditions are in place for a 'Best Buy' opportunity," says Jim Stack, whose buy signal should receive special attention give the accuracy of his sells signals which side-stepped the bear market.

In addition, the money manager and editor of Investech Market Analyst is beginning to increase his equity positions, such as Nike (NYSE: NKE). He states, "With a portfolio of iconic brands, an identified growth strategy, recognized innovation, and sound financial footing, Nike fits the bill of being a great company."

"Very rarely do we have all these conditions in place - that's only occurred five times in the last 45 years. Historically, this means we should give the growing evidence of a new bull market every benefit of doubt.

Continue reading Step up to Nike (NKE): A 'great company'

Step up to Nike (NKE): A 'great company' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Our confidence in this market is growing... albeit slowly; the fundamental blocks are already in place for a market bottom, and the technical blocks seem to be following," says Jim Stack, well known for having accurately forecast the market. housing and economic downturn.

In InvesTech Market Analyst, he suggests, "We are now stepping up our allocation. The newest addition to our Model Portfolio is VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC)."

"VF Corporation is the world's largest publicly held apparel manufacturer and distributor. It owns an incredibly diverse line of brands; including such well known names as Wrangler, Lee, North Face, Vans, and Nautica.

Continue reading VF Corp. (VFC): Dressed for success

VF Corp. (VFC): Dressed for success originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 May 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We are selectively taking advantage of deep values such as Waste Management (NTSE: WMI), which is selling at a compelling valuation," says Jim Stack, a safety-first money manager.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst he adds, "Waste Management displays the characteristics we search for in new investments including a distinct competitive advantage and solid financials.

"It is a giant in its industry; Waste Management is the largest solid waste management company in North America. Founded in 1894, it serves nearly 20 million customers.

"With the nation's largest network of landfills, Waste Management has significant pricing power and can charge fees to competitive waste haulers who don't own, or have access to, their own landfills.

Continue reading Waste Management (WMI): 'Deep value' in waste

Waste Management (WMI): 'Deep value' in waste originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Feb 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Written before yesterday's sharp rise, stock market historian and advisor Jim Stack had forecast an "imminent bottom" for the market. A long-term timer, he is not looking for quick pops and drops; rather, the "safety-first" money manager focuses on slowing positioning his portfolio for long-term, secular trends.

Indeed, in his InvesTech Market Analyst he was among the few to accurately forecast the current crisis; over the prior year and a half, he predicated both the bust of the housing bubble and the derivatives-based meltdown that would result.

After maintaining a defensive, cash-heavy portfolio during the market's downturn, he is now becoming more optimistic, noting, "All of our bearish extremes readings that precede the best stock buy opportunities are now in place."

Stack explains, "How can we put this bear market in historical perspective? No doubt about it, this bear market is a whopper - both in size and severity.

"With a 42.5% loss in the S&P 500 Index, it is rapidly closing in on the big bear markets of 1973-74 and 2000-02. In fact, no bear market in the past 70 years has declined over 50%.

"In severity, this bear has unfolded much faster than past bear markets, wiping out $6.7 trillion in stock values in barely 12 months - equivalent to over 90% of the loss in the 2000-02 bear market in two-fifths of the time

"In measuring impact on investors' portfolios, this bear has 'repossessed' more than 84% of the prior 5-year bull market gains! Both the DJIA and S&P 500 Index are back to price levels seen over 10 years ago in 1998.

"Why has the stock market decline turned so precipitous in the last few weeks? In bigger bear markets, investors always end up throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Continue reading Jim Stack: Market historian calls 'imminent' bottom

Jim Stack: Market historian calls 'imminent' bottom originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We continue to apply our value-oriented principles in selecting new growth stocks as we look for companies with superior profitability and strong balance sheets," says Jim Stack.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he and analyst Bruce Morison explain, "Our latest featured investment, Charles Schwab Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHW), is a prime example and stands out as a conservative way to access to opportunities in the battered financial group."

"We are increasing our equity allocation in stocks that should show strong relative performance in a market upturn.

"We continue, however, to be very selective in terms of quality, as well as downside risk. Over the past 20 years, brokerage/asset management firms have produced more than twice the return of the market following a bear market.

"The Charles Schwab brand is one of the most well-known and trusted names in the financial services industry. Its strategy is to be competitively priced, but more importantly to be positioned as the gold standard in client service and integrity.

Continue reading Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack, well-known for his safety-first strategy, recently added Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to his model portfolio, noting, "We had wanted to increase our allocation to technology which has typically been a leading sector in new bull markets."

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he explains, "This stock exhibits all the qualities we look for in a new purchase and is currently selling at a very attractive valuation."

"From its founding in 1975, Microsoft has become the world's largest software company with offices in over 100 countries. Its Windows operating system -which runs on 90% of all PCs currently in use - and for the Windows Office applications utilized by over 400 million users.

"This firm is extremely profitable with company-wide operating margins in excess of 40%. The Windows operating system and Office productivity suite have operating margins averaging closer to 70%.

"The company is completely debt free and generates over $1 billion in free cash flow each month. Management has done an excellent job of utilizing shareholder capital with a return on equity of over 40% compared to an average of 15% for S&P 500 companies.

Continue reading Microsoft (MSFT): A 'safety-first' tech play

Microsoft (MSFT): A 'safety-first' tech play originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Jul 2008 10:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, the advisor reviews the basics of this cycle, its historical merit, and what the Presidential cycle portends for the market's action between now and Election Day.

"Since we are in the midst of an election year, this cycle warrants review. During the 4-year Presidential Election cycle there is a characteristic variation in annual stock market returns that is evident in historical data and actually makes sense when one thinks about it.

"Basically, it boils down to just 'good politics.' Politicians worth their salt understand the goal: get any
bad economic news over early during your term and have the economy back on track and humming along
by Election Day.

"Consequently, the worst stock market performance typically occurs in the first two years after a Presidential Election. The third year, as politicians begin gearing up for re-election, is usually the
best year on Wall Street by a wide margin, and the only year where the average gain in the S&P 500 tops
10%.

Continue reading The Presidential election cycle: A market history

The Presidential election cycle: A market history originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 May 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Jim Stack is well known for his "safety-first" approach to money management, focusing on a balance between risk and reward. In his InvesTech market Analyst, he notes, "We now see a window of opportunity in Waters (NYSE: WAT).

Here, Bruce Morison, consultant for Stack Financial Management, explains, "In a market overreaction to a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, an opportunity has been created to invest in this high-quality company at an attractive valuation level.

"The stock dropped 20% when the company reported earnings that were $0.08 shy of the $1.06 estimate that Wall Street was forecasting. The shortfall was primarily a result of a higher-than-expected tax rate for 2007 and weaker sales in Japan.

"The Japan results reflected a change in government regulations for water testing. Our concern over this event is limited given that Japan accounts for less than 10% of the Waters' sales and is not a key growth market for the firm.

"A quick recap of the company ... Waters Corporation is a medium sized company based in Milford, Massachusetts which designs, manufactures, and services high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and mass spectrometry (MS) instrument systems.

Continue reading Waters (WAT): An 'environmental' investment

Waters (WAT): An 'environmental' investment originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 21 Mar 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.