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Pinnacle West (PNW): How the West will win

Hilary KramerFor the past several days, I've been giving tips about how to predict trends and ride them to profits. My last tip is that sometimes you can make money by taking a clear trend -- and then ignoring it and investing in a less trendy stock, or even a stock that seems to be losing out because of that same trend.

Before you throw up your hands in frustration, hear me out. For just one example, take Pinnacle West (NYSE: PNW). This Arizona company has two divisions: real estate development and an electric utility. Not surprisingly, the stock has really sunk since the spring as investors started fleeing with the intensifying real estate woes; back in April PNW was trading just above $50, and in early August it was down around $37.

Most trend followers would sell this stock too -- who wants to be involved with any real estate development company? As I see it, however, the company has been excessively punished for its real estate division, and it's currently undervalued when one considers its electricity division. Arizona is a hot place with a growing population, and there's only going to be increasing demand for electrical power to cool the homes and offices of all these people. The company may not return to its previous profit levels, but I think investors have overreacted, and we could see this gain several dollars back. When you add some modest growth to a 5.3% dividend, you could find yourself with a nice little profit.

Type of stock: An Arizona company dealing in real estate and electricity.

Price target: If you can get this below $40, I think you'll see it get up to around $45 over the next year. That's a ten percent gain right there, plus a dividend to make it nearly a 15% gain. Plus if you hold long enough, real estate has to come back sometime. That could be at least a few years though, so you'll need to be patient.

Credit markets 101: Finding the value

The difficult analysis of the credit markets is exactly that: analysis.

In the equity markets, when a company encounters difficult times, it tends to be isolated and somewhat unique to that company. The issues can be quantified and analysis will quickly give the investors the snapshot of the current value the company will have in the market place.

Stocks are simpler in that respect. Pertinent data is somewhat easily put into categories like price to earnings ratios, price-earnings to growth ratios, cash flow yield, gross profit margins and, of course, the ultimate measuring stick -- operating margins. A publicly traded company will endorse a set of expectations for an ensuing quarter and in most cases, the whole year.

The fixed-income credit markets are a different story. The movement of bond prices is quite often a vote of confidence -- or lack of confidence. The massive credit market runs the gamut of fully secured United States Treasury paper to junk bonds. The credit-worthiness of a bond is judged and given a rating score by a third party, normally Moody's or Standard and Poor's.

Continue reading Credit markets 101: Finding the value

Must-read tips from a value investing legend

Sometimes there is an article in a newspaper that's so great that it's worth doing a post on just so that more people will see it, and no additional commentary is really necessary. Whitney Tilson's tips for value investors in these weekend's Financial Times is such a piece.

For the uninitiated, Whitney Tilson is one of the great value investing minds of our time. He's also a heck of a good guy: He's one of the founders of Teach For America, and I'm an eager reader of anything that he has to say.

For more information about how to implement the investment strategies discussed in his latest column, I recommend the following books:

You Can Be a Stock Market Genius: Uncover the Secret Hiding Places of Stock Market Profits. If there's an award for the most informative book with a clunky, annoying title, I nominate this Joel Greenblatt masterpiece. It's focused on special situations such as spin-offs and bankruptcy investing, which are both featured in Tilson's list of tips.

Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation. Whether you like it or not, almost all value investing seems to have a contrarian angle: You're buying stocks that you think the market is pricing inaccurately. David Dreman makes a compelling case for contrarian investing, and shows how you might be able to beat the market.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 06:14 AM

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