One of the major economic debates on Main Street and in Washington concerns the influence of speculators during oil's record price rise. (Oil currently trades above $140 and is up 100% during the past year, and more than 400% since 2000).

More than one Congressional committee is investigating the role of speculators, who critics say have 'distorted' or artificially boosted oil's price -- driven it higher than a level the commodity would trade at if the price were based solely on supply and demand fundamentals.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, while not denying speculators have contributed to oil's record rise, nevertheless offers perhaps the strongest evidence regarding how a commodity's price can rise a great deal, without the influence of speculators. His evidence: iron ore.

The economic boom in emerging markets has driven up both the value of commodities and the food production process itself.

Moreover, the long-term trends look good, with out-sized gains likely to stretch for more than five years, if current emerging market economic growth trends continue.

That suggests the sector is likely to continue to attract new investors, and huge investment funds - - not a conventional source of capital for farming, historically - - have already started making bolder and longer-term food-related investments, by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators, and shipping equipment, The New York Times reported Thursday.

One example: the BlackRock fund group plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in agriculture, chiefly farmland, from sub-Saharan Africa to the English countryside, The Times reported.

Farms: the new asset class-of-choice

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Thursday the investment fund / managed fund money flow in farmland and food is the logical next step for agriculture, given the large gains in global food demand projected for the next 5-8 years.

"The equity markets have not fully come to grips with the enormity of his increased demand, but investment funds are beginning to comprehend it, and the money flow toward farms has begun," Langan said. "Think about this - - China and India combined could add about 3-5 million members to the world's middle class each year over the next decade. Those are consumers with money to spend, and they'll consume more food. And that total does not include expanding middle classes in South America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East."

The "Totally Informal Economics Roundtable" (TIER) met this week. Readers of this space know that the esteemed Roundtable achieves a quorum whenever yours truly and my three astute economist friends from graduate school convene to discuss matters economic... or to celebrate the birthday of one our school-age children.

This week's the topic was oil's remarkable 4-year run to $135 per barrel.

The TIER agreed that, yes, speculators, traders, hedge funds, and other institutional investors had driven oil to a 'bubble' price or level -- but not due to any conspiracy or coordinated effort to push prices higher.

Rather, the TIER agreed that speculators bought oil futures and other oil instruments: because a) they believe the price of oil is headed higher, and/or b) they believe they'll benefit in some way from an oil-long position.

Hedge funds and speculators reduced positions in oil by 80% as prices rose to records and as U.S. regulators started investigating trading, Bloomberg News reported Monday, citing government data.

Net long positions decline to 25,867 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended May 27, 2008 from a record 127,491 contracts on July 31, 2008 according to a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report.

Last week, the CFTC, under pressure from Congress, announced that it had expanded an investigation of oil's price rise and oil futures contracts. Oil has increased about 100% in the past 12 months, and about 480% since 2002. Oil rose $1.50 to $128.50 per barrel in mid-day Monday trading.

Oil fell for the third straight day Thursday and neared the psychologically-significant $110 level, as data confirming a sluggish U.S. economy and the rising dollar reduced investors' demand for oil as an alternative investment.

Oil, which had traded as low as $110.80, closed down 96 cents to $112.50 per barrel. Oil hit a record high of $119.90 per barrel on April 22, 2008.

The other major energy commodities also closed substantially lower Thursday. Heating oil closed down about 6 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline closed down 5 cents to $2.85 per gallon, and natural gas closed down about 25 cents to $10.59 per million BTUs.

U.S. regular unleaded gasoline prices rose another 5 cents in the past two weeks to $3.32 per gallon, according to a national survey which collects price information from 7,000 stations nationwide. The Lundberg Survey also put mid-grade and super unleaded at $3.44 and $3.55 per gallon, respectively.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Monday gasoline is being pushed higher largely by the price of oil, even in the face of flat-to-declining U.S. gasoline demand. U.S. consumers "are doing their part to take pressure of prices," but triple-digit-oil prices are providing little incentive for gasoline refiners and wholesales to lower prices. (The oil component accounts for about 50-55% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline.) Oil rose $2 to $108.23 per barrel in early trading Monday. Dietz added that he's presently flat, or has no open oil or gasoline positions.

Dietz said, typically, when gasoline demand flattens or drops wholesalers/distributors and retail stations lower prices slightly to spur increased sales. That has not occurred so far this spring, despite statistics indicating U.S. gasoline consumption has declined, on a year-over-year basis, for more than three straight weeks.

Another factor that may be helping to keep gasoline at stubbornly high levels in the face of sluggish demand? Hedge/investment funds buying gasoline futures in search of returns, Dietz said. Dietz said an increased number of hedge funds and investments are turning to commodities, and oil/gasoline in particular, as a way "to achieve decent returns, when stocks and other investments can't" due to the hurting U.S. economy.

One of the most intriguing questions amid the stock market's recent slump and the three-year-plus bull run in commodities, especially oil, concerns whether or not investment funds and hedge funds have artificially boosted commodity prices.

One camp argues that hedge/investment funds now have the capacity to "distort" prices beyond what a sector's fundamentals suggest the price should be. Another camp argues that the valuation of "distort" is subjective, and in any case the market will quickly self-correct for the error, when the bubble or trough, ends.

When making arguments before Congress and other groups, the price distortion camp can point to two recent data points to make their case. First: the $23 per barrel rise in the price of oil to $111.80 from about $87 from mid-February 2008 to mid-March 2008. Second: the 14 cent jump in wholesale unleaded gasoline to $2.77 per gallon on April 2, 2008.

Inventory data

Concerning oil, there has been no fundamental change in global oil supply or demand in the past quarter. If anything, demand growth moderated in the period. Further, oil inventories in the world's largest consuming nation, the United States, rose during the period. Still, oil prices rocketed 26% during the period to record highs.

Banks are demanding more capital from hedge funds to support outstanding loans resulting in the dissolution of some funds forced to liquidate assets, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

``If you have leverage, you're stuffed,'' Alex Allen, chief investment officer of London-based Eddington Capital Management Ltd., which has $195 million invested in hedge funds for clients, told Bloomberg News. Allen said the crisis is like a bank panic turned upside down with bankers, not depositors, concerned they won't get their money back. He added there are likely to be more collateral /margin-related liquidations of hedge funds in the weeks ahead.

The $2 trillion hedge fund industry is in the throes of its worst capital crunch since the Federal Reserve successfully encouraged the securities industry to provide $3.6 billion to bail-out Long Term Capital Management L.P. in 1998. Amplified by leverage and aided by innovative investment formulas, many hedge funds generated outstanding returns for much of this decade, often aided by high-performing asset-backed securities. However, as the housing market slowed and mortgage-backed securities began to fail, hedge funds started to experience the down side of their deployed leverage: banks and other counterparties who lent money for these investments had the right to and initiated requests that hedge funds put up more capital. Hedge funds that could not meet the capital requirement have been liquidated.

Crude oil jumped $1.85 in early trading Monday morning to touch a record $107 per barrel as investors continued to pour funds into oil futures, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

Oil traded at the record price before pulling back slightly to $106.31 by midday Monday. Heating oil gained 1 cent to $2.96 per gallon, unleaded gasoline was unchanged at $2.69 per gallon.

With U.S. stocks expected to underperform historical averages due to sluggish U.S. economic growth, and with global oil demand still strong, investors are increasing positions in oil, calculating that the world's most vital commodity will outperform other asset classes in 2008. Oil is up about 75% during the past 12 months, and has traded above $90 per barrel for most of 2008.

Further, the weak and falling U.S. dollar is also boosting oil prices. Because oil is priced in dollars, if the dollar falls, oil producers will try to increase the price of the product to maintain their purchasing power. A lower dollar also implies higher U.S. inflation, prompting some investors to buy oil as an inflation hedge, further boosting the commodity's price.

Oil closed above $105 for the first time in the industrial, modern, or postmodern eras Thursday, after status-quo monetary decisions in Europe and political tension in Latin America sparked both new buying of the commodity as an inflation hedge and renewed concerns about supply.

Oil, which traded at a high of $105.95, closed Thursday up 95 cents to $105.47 per barrel, an all-time record-high close.

The other major energy commodities also closed higher. Heating oil gained 3 cents to $2.97 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 1 cent to $2.65 per gallon and natural gas climbed 3 cents to $9.75 per million BTUs.

Oil closed Thursday up $2.95 to $102.59 per barrel -- another record-high print close -- after a combination of geopolitical, production, and trading factors sent investors piling into crude oil futures as an investment/inflation hedge, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Earlier in the day oil hit an intra-session high of $102.70 -- within 10 cents of the all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel set in April 1980.

The other major energy commodities also rose. Heating oil surged about 6 cents to $2.83 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about 2 cent to $2.49, and natural gas rocketed 39 cents to $9.45 per million BTUs.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased 3.2 million barrels for the week ending February 22, 2008, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced Wednesday (pdf). Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6 million barrel increase.

Oil continued to trade at near-record levels on the news. Oil was down 33 cents to $100.25 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day, after trading above $102 earlier in the session. The other major energy commodities were mixed at mid-day. Heating oil gained about 1 cent to $2.81 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 1 cent to $2.53 per gallon, and natural gas declined fell about 10 cents to $9.11 per million BTUs.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) announced Monday it closed a $12 billion, enhanced money fund after major clients pulled-out amid losses on complex asset-back securities, including structured investment vehicles, Bloomberg News reported.

The Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio was closed last week and is being "wound down," Bank of America spokesman Robert Stickler told Bloomberg News. Sticker said the fund's net asset value, which had been $33 billion two weeks ago, was 99.4 cents on the dollar as of Monday.