Continue reading Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon has endured

Hamilton's Bank of New York Mellon has endured originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In "Wall Street shares: Poised to play catch-up with other financials," I suggested that investment bank and broker/dealers shares could be vulnerable to further weakness in the period ahead.

Another group that may also be at risk because of the fast-spreading contagion in global credit markets is the asset management sector (e.g., Standard and Poor's 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks Index).

Up until recently, the shares of publicly traded money managers have done well in comparison to the broader equity market (e.g., S&P 500 index). What's more, relative to other financials, the sector has been a star performer.

Arguably, investors seem to believe that the positive fundamentals of the last few years -- strong inflows, booming global markets, favorable demographic trends, and sheer momentum -- will outweigh any near-term negatives.

Based on how rapidly conditions have deteriorated so far, that optimism seems unwarranted. In fact, logic suggests further credit market woes could soon negatively impact the sector in a number of ways. Among the possibilities:

• Investors increasingly favor "safer" investments (i.e., with smaller management fees) such as money market and short-term government bond funds
• There is a growing preference for traditional savings vehicles such as bank certificates of deposits and savings accounts, which draws assets away from publicly traded, non-bank money managers
• Falling market returns lead to increased competition, boosting marketing costs and pressuring revenues
• Rising financing costs cut into margins and limit management flexibility
• Concerns about risk to reputation force some firms to step in and bail out ailing funds at considerable expense

With that in mind, the recent outperformance may actually represent a decent selling opportunity.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Asset managers: Another vulnerable sector? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Aug 2007 20:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.