What's the world's biggest economic concern, even after a decade of globalization? When the U.S. economy will begin to recover and pull out of its recession.

What's, arguably, the world's second biggest economic concern? When China's economy will begin to grow at a stronger rate.

The U.S. and E.U. recessions have decreased demand for China's exports, which in turn has slowed China's GDP growth from more than 11% in 2007 to about 8% in 2008, with even slower growth in the final half of 2008, so says economist David H. Wang, a China expert.

The power of Chinese demand

True, slower Chinese growth has taken pressure off commodity prices globally -- it's a major reason oil, copper, coal, and related commodity prices collapsed in 2008 -- but that reduced demand also has "resulted in a negative-feedback loop," Wang said, slowing the economies of raw material- and commodity-exporting countries, particularly emerging market economies like Brazil.

Welcome to Way Off Wall Street, a column dedicated to providing Main Street opinions on topics of interest to investors. Each installment highlights the views of Americans who are far removed from the canyons of Wall Street -- and who often see things more clearly as a result.

I've spent a good deal of time researching and soliciting opinions about how people are looking at their own retirement in relation to the American economic downturn. Many people are looking at retirement with the same mind-set that they've always had. In many cases, I found people believe that our economy will recover rather quickly. In others, I suspected they are intentionally blinding themselves from the truth that this could be a very long economic downturn.

Since today's retirement realities is such a big topic, I'm going to discuss it over two posts. This first one concerns the group of people who either have already retired, or expect to retire within the next five years. My next column will cover people who have more than five years until retirement, as well as those people who believe that the word "retirement" will never truly apply to them (I myself fall into the latter part of the second group).

Is the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency coming to an end?

It could be, if present trends driven by corrective measures taken to stem the global financial crisis continue, in the view of one monetary official.

European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny believes a 'tri-polar' global reserve currency system is developing among Asia, Europe and the United States.

"What I see is a system where we have more centers of gravity," Nowotny said Monday in an interview with Austrian state broadcaster ORF-TV, Bloomberg News reported Monday. "I see for the future a tri-polar development, and I don't think that there will be fixed exchange rates between these poles."

The dollar has served as the world's reserve currency for more than 30 years. A reserve currency is one which financial institutions -- and nations, for that matter -- seek to own during times of financial crisis, stress, or uncertainty. The reserve currency attracts investors in a phenomenon called a 'flight to safety.'

The euro, the currency of the euro zone, this decade has challenged the dollar's reserve currency status, following its introduction into global financial markets in 1999. (Physical euro banknotes and coins began to circulate on January 1, 2002.) A series of U.S. fiscal policy and trade policy errors, among other factors, has caused the dollar to weaken against the euro from about 82 cents per euro in 2001 to the present $1.3317 per euro.

Many economists, analysts, traders and others agree it's way too soon to assess the impact of this latest, mortgage-related jolt on the stock and bond markets, and on the U.S. and global economies.

There are too many moving parts, and too many unknowns to form meaningful, enduring conclusions. The reason? The financial world order we see today may not, in fact, be the financial world order we see tomorrow. The Dow was down about 256 points to 11,165 early Monday afternoon.

But there is one conclusion U.S. investors / citizens can form regarding the U.S. economy, so says an economist: expanding credit and rising home prices, in and of themselves, are not engines of economic growth.

Now, everyone's recognizing 'the obvious'

"We have now entered the age of recognizing the obvious," economist Richard Felson said. "Almost everyone knew that the booming housing market would slow down as soon as all potential buyers had been tapped and as the American economy slowed. But few foresaw the impact the slowdown would have on mortgage bonds, their owners, and the financial system. We now have to rebuild the American credit market, and global credit market, as well, to a degree. It will be a major task."

The primary source of all the above, in Felson's interpretation? Structural problems in the U.S. economy, primarily a lack of jobs, or low job growth, he said.

"For the better part of four years, America went blithely along, confident that the fundamentals of the [U.S.] economy were sound. Yet all the while, job growth and its companion, rising median wages, were inadequate. But they were ignored because corporate earnings were up and home values were rising. But it was a building constructed on quicksand," Felson said. "The boom was not sustainable. The [U.S.] economy did not have growth engines in place for sustainable growth. "

Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum gently reminds us that not every tax cut achieves its intended effect.

Case study: The 2001 Bush Administration federal income tax cut, which included a cut in the marginal tax rate to 35% from 39.6%. The Bush Administration touted it as a tax cut that would increase incentives to invest, save and work.

The result? The tax cut didn't work: saving and investment have been "anemic" during the Bush years, Baum said, citing data provided by Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. Business investment is down, the savings rate is at a post-World War II low. Further, the labor participation rate has declined.

No guarantee tax cut would be invested in U.S.

But why didn't cutting the top marginal rate do all of the good things the Bush Administration touted? Economist Peter Dawson said the reason is the tax cut's inherent flaw.

"The tax cut contained the mistaken belief that rich taxpayers would invest their money and invest in the right way, in the U.S., to increase GDP," Dawson said. "There was no guarantee that they would do that. Someone who is rich could invest the money in Brazil or India, with little benefit for the United States."

I've always sensed that women make better investors than men. Call me politically incorrect but when I talk to a woman about investing, she's focused on protecting her savings, not using it to make more money. Women don't think about "beating the market." They think about being safe. They don't want to make a mistake and avoiding mistakes is sometimes what makes all the difference in getting investment returns. And women are less prone to trading and more attuned to buying and holding. As Warren Buffett says, "Activity is the enemy of performance."

Maybe it's our testosterone that drives us to turn investing into a championship sporting event. I don't know. But I've felt that the male competitive spirit often is the very thing that drives us into stupid investments.

Until recently, I couldn't put my finger on how our male "Y" chromosome puts us at a genetic disadvantage to women. However, I recently discovered that Brad Barber and Terrance Odean of UC Davis validated my intuition. They published an article in the February 2001 issue of The Quarterly Journal of Economics titled "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment."

Barber and Odean obtained trading data from a discount brokerage for over 35,000 households and analyzed investing patterns for six years to test whether overconfidence leads to more trading and lower returns. Since in areas of finance psychologists have proven that men tend to be more prone to overconfidence, the genders were separated so that their trading habits could be studied individually.

Register a mild, positive data point for the U.S. economy. In May, the U.S. service sector slowed at a pace less than economists had expected.

The Institute for Supply Management announced Wednesday that its non-manufacturing or service index nudged lower to 51.7% in May from 52.0 in April. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion; below 50, a contraction. Hence, because the index remained above 50 in May, the expansion in the service sector continued for a second straight month, the ISM said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the services index to decline to 51.0 in May.

Thirteen of the ISM's service industries grew in May. The ISM added that members' comments in May reflected concern about business conditions, including rising costs, and the overall sluggish U.S. economy.

Economic Analysis: Many economists tend to place less emphasis on the ISM services index, compared to the capital-intensive manufacturing index. Still, the services index does provide helpful clues regarding the economy and the May statistic further confirmed that the U.S. at mid-year is experiencing very sluggish, region-specific growth, but not a contraction -- at least not yet. Credit conditions are tight, but credit availability has not been totally shut down. Corporations large and small are tightening their belts, but some business-to-business spending is occurring. Lay-offs are occurring, but so far, there is no tidal wave of layoffs.

The U.S. economy grew at a modest pace in Q1 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, weighed-down by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years and slowing consumer spending.

U.S. Q1 2008 GDP increased 0.9%, slightly above the 0.6% preliminary Q1 2008 GDP estimate. The economy grew at a 0.6% rate in Q4 2007. It was the smallest two-consecutive-quarter GDP increase in five years. The U.S. economy has grown 2.5% in the past 12 months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the economy to grow at a 1.0% rate in Q1 2008.

Also, the Q1 2008 core PCE price index -- a statistic the U.S. Federal Reserve monitors closely -- was revised lower to a 2.1% annualized rate, from the preliminary 2.2% rate. Equally significant, core prices have risen 2% in the past year, slightly above the Fed's so-called 'comfort zone' for core inflation.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the core PCE price index to increase 2.6% in Q1 2008. The overall consumer price index increased at a 3.5% annual rate in Q1.

The Q1 2008 GDP statistic was driven by an increase in exports and defense spending.

Fellow BloggingStocks contributor, Aaron Katsman, and I were discussing the pros and cons of investing in high-yield bonds this morning. You know, those types of risky bonds that pay a pretty good yield in return for investors lending a risky company their hard-earned cash. Inevitably, Washington Mutual's name came up.

Is it worth the risk of default to get some juicy yield?

Dunno, but just as we were discussing the troubled lender, some news rolled out over the wires.

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), the largest savings and loan in the U.S., announced it's taking an investment totaling $7 billion from an investor group led by private equity firm, TPG, or Texas Pacific Group.

Well, that helps provide some stability. At least for a while.

After yesterday's selloff, stocks opened higher in anticipation of additional rate cuts by the Fed later today. Better-than-expected quarterly earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) relieved investors who have been dealing with a lot of negative news lately in the financial sector.

The world's largest investment bank reported this morning that its first-quarter profit dropped 53% to $1.47 billion. The company's quarterly numbers were dragged down by higher writedowns and lower fees from investment banking. Deterioration in the credit markets came with $1 billion in losses related to residential mortgage loans and securities and nearly $1 billion in losses on credit activities.

But despite its deep losses, Goldman Sachs managed to beat analysts' predictions, helped by stronger asset management and commodities performance. The company posted first-quarter profit per share of $3.23 per share, down from $6.67 per share reported in the same period a year ago. Analysts, on average, expected the company show quarterly earnings of $2.58 per share.

Shares of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) have been dropping in early trading after the company reported this morning a plunge of 89% in its fourth-quarter profit. The company's quarterly numbers were dragged down by higher write-downs related to its holdings in bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. Wall Street has reacted by pushing the stock down 3.4% to $14.08, and at one point, traded shares down to $13.82, which set a new all-time low for the stock since its debut last June.

Excluding compensation expenses, the manager of the world's largest leveraged-buyout fund announced that its quarterly profit dropped to $88 million, compared with $808.1 million a year ago. Blackstone's income declined through the quarter, hurt by its investment in Financial Guaranty Insurance.

Deterioration in the credit markets, which came with lower takeover fees and reduced the value of its new investments, made the company post adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share. As Trey Thoelcke discussed, analysts had been expecting Blackstone to show quarterly earnings of 19 cents per share. The company failed again to beat, or at least to match, analysts' predictions.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecast for 2008 growth in its 30-nation membership to "less than 2%" -- the lowest growth rate since 2003 -- due to fallout from the U.S. economic slowdown, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Sixth months ago, the OCED predicted that 2008 growth in the 30-nation zone would total 2.3%, following 2.7% growth in 2007.

The growth revision marks a substantial shift in OECD expectations. Earlier, the OECD predicted that member economies would be to withstand the U.S. economic slowdown without considerable negative consequence. That outlook, along with economic analysis from other countries, helped form the basis for the so-called 'decoupling thesis' -- where Europe and other developed countries race along unscathed by the doldrums in the world's largest economy.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.6% in Q4 2007, below the consensus estimate, as activity in construction and consumer spending declined, The U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, in a statement.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the economy to grow at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q4 2007. The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in Q3 2007, the Commerce Department said.

For 2007, the economy grew at its weakest pace in five years, with GDP increasing at an inflation-adjusted 2.2%. GDP increased 2.9% in 2006. In 2007 the nation's GDP totaled $13.84 trillion, not adjusted for inflation.

In Q4 2007, a stronger performance in trade offset sub-par performances in consumer spending, business investment, residential investment, and inventories.

I'm sure there will be millions of people watching and participating in the 2008 Olympics set to take place in Beijing, China. That got me thinking: everyone knows that the Chinese investment giant is just beginning to wake. Yes, things are frothy now and growth is almost never linear. There will be bumps along the way as China grows and some people will make a mint, while others lose their shirts.

I'm looking to make a mint. So, how to play China into 2008? I came up with two stocks to help vault investors into the 2008 Olympics.

Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP): China's leading online travel services provider, Ctrip is probably the most engaging pure play on the Chinese internet making a run at the traditional economy. With 57% marketshare, this company is poised to be the leader in any consolidation that occurs in the online travel space. Bear Stearns' analysts expect Ctrip to grow its revenues at an average of 40% over the next three years based upon:

• China online travel accounting for <1% of the total travel market in 2006
• The Olympics will naturally act as a showcase for inbound tourism into China
• Rising GDP and income levels should contribute to growing demand for both business and leisure travel
• The Chinese government is mandating a transition to e-ticketing

Historically, when the Fed has started cutting rates, investing in financial stocks has proven profitable for investors. Will the same hold true in today's easing cycle? Probably not.

The Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) model for its mortgage business might point to problems ahead for the financial industry in general. The financial services industry has done an outstanding job during the past twenty years developing new products and marketing them to institutions who specialize in buying these new instruments -- primarily hedge funds. With mortgage hedge funds, publicly traded vehicles such as mortgage REITs and other investors now shutting their doors to these products, who gets stuck with them? You guessed it! The investment firms and large commercial banks.

Now let's go to $300 billion of private equity debt that needs to be placed. Who is buying that up? While some institutions are, much of it is staying on the books of the investment firms and banks. Will funds be formed to invest in this debt? Yes, but it will take time.