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Toyota (TM) hybrid stalled -- can Detroit capitalize?

Due to potential safety problems, Toyota (NYSE: TM) has decided to delay the launch of new high-mileage hybrids with lithium-ion battery technology by one to two years, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cited people familiar with the strategy. The decision destroys any chance of Toyota meeting its goal of selling 600,000 hybrids a year by early next decade, up from almost 200,000 in 2006. The move allows General Motors (NYSE: GM) and others the opportunity to narrow the gap of future vehicle technology.

Toyota has also postponed its plans for the hybrid versions of the Sequoia SUV and the Tundra pickup until 2013-2014. That puts Toyota way behind General Motors and Chrysler's plans to launch hybrid SUVs in 2008.

The "potential safety problem" Toyota says, is the development of lithium cobalt oxide particles in its batteries, which have a tendency to overheat, catch fire or even explode. According to the company, similar problems have been seen in Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) lithium-ion batteries in laptops -- mostly because the chemistry of Sony's batteries was similar to that of batteries they were attempting to use in future hybrids.

The next-generation Prius will instead use the conventional nickel-metal-hydride batteries for its launch in early 2009. The first Toyota hybrid with lithium-ion battery technology will not arrive in the U.S. until 2011.

GM will have an opportunity to launch its first lithium-ion hybrid, the Saturn VUE Green Line model, as soon as late 2009, and before any competitors. Toyota's delays also give Honda Motors (NYSE: HMC) the opportunity to highlight its launch of a subcompact hybrid with improved nickel-metal-hydride batteries in 2009. Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY), BMW and DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DAI) all plan to create clean diesel engines for U.S. cars starting in 2009. The automakers say they now have obtained the technology to meet tough American clean-air standards.

Regardless of which company produces the first lithium-ion hybrid, Toyota's delays push back J.D. Power's estimates on future hybrid sales. Hybrid sales totaled 2.3% of all auto sales this year and were expected to reach 5% by 2010.

Analyst downgrade 5-09-07: CSCO, ERTS, MDRX, MVL and THC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Marvel Entertainment, Inc (MVL), Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS), ION Media Networks Inc (ION), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc (MDRX) and Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) to Neutral from Overweight based on the lack of near-term catalysts.
  • Gabelli downgraded Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to Hold from Buy on reduced 2008 expectations. The firm expects Electronic to lose market share given the lack of Q1 product launches.
  • CRT downgraded ION Media Networks (AMEX: ION) to Sell from Buy and recommends taking profits at these levels as shares are approaching Citadel LP's offer of $1.46 per share.
  • Jefferies downgraded Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) to Underperform from Hold with a $5.50 target to reflect weak volumes.
OTHER DOWNGRADES: Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Newspaper wrap-up 5-3-07: Texas Instruments to expand to the Phillippines

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • According to Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" column, Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has gone from a growth play to a value play, and may be a bargain after a recent pullback.
  • The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that although the Dolan family finally convinced its board to take its $10.6B offer to take Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) private, hurdles remain, as some investors aren't going along with it.
  • Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) plans to spend about $1B over the next 10 years to expand its chip assembly and test operations in the Philippines, reported the Wall Street Journal.
OTHER PAPERS:

Johnson Controls is advancing in the Global Warming fight

Wisconsin-based Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) is boasting advances in lithium ion battery technology that is enabling automakers worldwide to successfully create and sustain the new breed of high-efficiency automobiles. Remember, these new hybrids and plug-ins are useless without adequate and dependable, long-life power sources to support them. Since January 2006, Johnson Controls has sought to make lithium ion batteries the chosen power pack for future energy efficient vehicles. I'm pleased to report that they have met with admirable success.

Earlier this month, Johnson Controls accepted a development contract with General Motors to develop and test lithium ion batteries for use in GM's Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid SUV. Concentrated development efforts begun in January 2006 by Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Systems (JCS) have come to the point where JCS was able to install and display a fully integrated lithium ion battery system in a prototype hybrid-electric SUV at the 2007 North American International Auto Show.

Alan Mumby, president and general manager of Johnson Controls hybrid battery business, states: "We are thrilled to be a key player in enabling tomorrow's green technologies". The JCS lithium ion battery laboratory, situated in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is the only dedicated facility in the world focused exclusively on developing lithium ion technology for use in hybrid vehicles.

At least partial funding of the JCS lithium ion battery development project has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy in furtherance of the Freedom CAR and Fuel Partnership project. The United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) is also a driving force in this effort. USCAR is a development and research effort operating with the combined forces of Americas big three automakers. This all speaks well of our friends in American auto manufacturing. Breathe easy America, they're working on it.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:33 AM

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