The oil industry has been working hard to find new oil reserves, and so far this year the efforts have been paying off.

It has been a year with some major discoveries that have put the oil industry in a good position to make it the year with the highest level of new discoveries since 2000.

A big reason for the increase in discoveries is improvements in technology that has allowed oil hunters to drill deeper and break through tougher rocks than they were previously able to do.

Oil got off to a strong start today, climbing over $3 earlier in the session, but the last couple hours have seen the precious crude give back its earlier gains and is now trading down slightly on the day at $80.88, down $0.31.

The early day jump was in reaction to continued optimism that a full blown global recession could be avoided with the infusion of $125 billion by the U.S. government into nine major banks.

Last week at this time, we were pretty much all asking ourselves the question of just how bad are things going to get, and this led to a week-long panic in the market that sent all the major international exchanges into free fall. Now it seems like, for the moment, the panic is behind us and investors are starting to suspect that perhaps things are not going to be as bad as people were beginning to believe last week. We won't be looking at the next Great Depression, or so we hope, but with this market, emotion seems to change in a heartbeat.

At first glance - - investigating whether OPEC will be able to stunt oil's rise to $150 per barrel may seem moot.

Not so, says energy trader Jim Dietz, and he cited three reasons.

First, the oil shorts - - those who believe oil is overpriced / too high - - are likely to mount a rigorous defense of $150. (Oil traded up $4.75 to $146.40 per barrel Friday at mid-day after hitting a record high of $147.27 earlier in the day.) "It will not be an easy barrier to mount. It will be easier to break than the $100 barrier but keep in mind it took several months and at least 5 sequences to break $100, once we got within the range," Dietz said. "Look for almost as tough price resistance at $150."

Second, many oil longs - - those who calculated that oil is trending higher - - will take profits at $150, Dietz said. "The $150 mark will result in many players and institutions cashing in their long trades, on rationality grounds," Dietz said. "For example, if you established trades at $80 or $85, common sense says $150 represents a good time to exit. Likewise for more-daring institutions that went long above $100. The thinking will be 'We're at $150 after a high entry point. How long do we expect this insanity to go on? Let's take some profits and reduce our exposure.' That will add to selling pressure." Dietz added that he is presently flat, or has no open energy trading positions - - his normal stance for a Friday in the summer.

Finally, those facts, combined with already-announced oil production increases by Saudi Arabia, will enhance OPEC's ability to slow gains in the price of oil near/at $150 per barrel, Dietz said. Further, Dietz believes Saudi Arabia will announce still another production increase, perhaps as large as 300,000 barrels, to calm markets, "and eliminate doubts in some energy corners about its spare capacity and ability to ramp-up production."

Another day, another oil record.

Oil easily pushed past $145 Thursday morning after traders calculated that the already weak dollar has further to fall after the European Central Bank increased a key interest rate by a quarter point to 4.25%.

Oil rose as much as $2.28 to $145.85 per barrel -- an all-time high -- before easing back slightly to trade at $144.40 at mid-day.

Oil tends to rise when the dollar falls as investors/traders seek to preserve purchasing power of the decreased value of dollar-denominated commodities by bidding their price up. However, it's important to note that the dollar/oil correlation is not perfect: there have been instances in which the dollar fell and oil fell.

Oil's record price rise in 2007-2008 rivals price increases during the two previous oil shocks, in 1973-74 and 1979-80.

Moreover, while we'll leave for sector analysts and economists to declare if oil's 100% gain in 2008 and 400% gain since 2000 qualifies for an oil shock, those analysts and economists generally agree that the price rise has been driven by rising demand, particularly increased demand for oil in emerging markets, such as China and India.

However, that's not to say that the weak dollar and speculators / institutional investors have not affected the price of oil to the upside: they have, economists generally agree. Further, most analysts also believe oil's price contains a 'geopolitical / civil unrest risk' premium, as well. But all of the aforementioned does not blot-out the primary driver: the fact that about 1 billion new consumers of oil in emerging markets (in the form of car owners, factories, and commercial trucks) are being incorporated into the industrialized world, as the initial decade of globalization progresses.

Given the demand characteristics, and ignoring. for the moment, conservation / efficiency issues and alternative energy sources, a natural question concerns supply. Are there any nations that could increase supply by large amounts? Indeed there are three, but the answer is not as simple as 1-2-3.

The 3 major oil reserve nations

• Iraq – The possessor of the third largest proved reserves (115 billion barrels), Iraq's oil production has been depressed by the Iraq War, and delays in massive required repairs to its infrastructure. By extension, a sustained increase in production assumes a cessation of hostilities and a political solution, and these are not on the immediate horizon. But the point here is that Iraq is capable of producing 6, 7, even 8 million barrels of oil per day, given investment and a stable government. Iraq's current output is about 2.5 million barrels per day, according to the Middle East Economic Survey.

The White House is in overdrive promoting former press secretary Scott McClellan's What Happened. That promotion has helped drive it to the number one selling position on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). While Amazon will benefit from the sales of the book, the stock is more than fairly valued.

The White House's promotion is based on its passionate response to the confirmation bias it demonstrated in the run up to the Iraq war. As I wrote in this Business Strategy Review article, confirmation bias is when facing a major decision, one exhibits an unwillingness to admit conflicting data – no matter how salient – to influence a closed point of view. Mclellan points out that the White House decided to go to war against Iraq a year before its start and manufactured a false "case" to sell it.

McClellan pointing this out is hardly news. But I thought his comments about George W. Bush's cocaine use, as reported by 6abc.com, were more revealing. Recalling a 1999 conversation with Bush, McClellan writes: "'The media won't let go of these ridiculous cocaine rumors,' I heard Bush say. 'You know, the truth is I honestly don't remember whether I tried it or not. We had some pretty wild parties back in the day, and I just don't remember.'

I know that last thing you probably wanted to hear this morning was that oil prices moved even higher, but that is exactly what is taking place, as oil rose as high as $125.98 and is currently trading at $125.60.

Leading the charge today is the weak dollar as investors continue to seek refuge from the falling U.S. currency in commodities -- most notably, oil. The dollar has fallen today against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The euro was sitting at $1.5404 last night, but has moved higher today, up to a current price of $1.5466.

The market is also concerned about the upcoming peak driving season for Americans. With the season getting under way, oil prices will definitely continue to rise, and if gasoline stockpiles continue to fall, you can be sure that gasoline prices are also going to keep moving higher over the next couple of months. Will we see national averages of $4 or greater? I don't think so, but at the current rate prices are moving, nothing is out of the question right now.

American motorists, already stung by an 80% increase in gasoline prices in the past year, sense that $5 per gallon is ahead, and they may be (regrettably) right.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect to pay $4 per gallon this year, and 78% expect to pay as much as $5, CNNMoney reported Tuesday.

The national average currently is $3.62 per gallon as tracked by the Lundberg Survey, Bloomberg News reported. Many higher-cost areas of the United States -- including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston -- are already experiencing prices over $4 per gallon.

Further, traders and analysts say seasonal, structural, and geopolitical factors are likely to push gasoline considerably higher in the weeks ahead -- with gasoline's upward arc lasting months, if the price of oil continues to rise.

Primary culprit: Rising oil prices

The biggest factor in gasoline's rise is the price of oil, which Tuesday topped $122 per barrel in NYMEX trading for the first time in its history. Oil is up more than 100% since 2006. In November 2001, oil traded at about $17 per barrel. Moreover, because the crude component accounts for more than 60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, refiners have passed that added cost onto consumers.

Oil continues its charge today, with prices rising above $122. At noon, oil is at $122.21, up $2.21.

The bulls have definitely had plenty of reason to continue to push prices higher this week. Concerns over supplies and the weak U.S. dollar continue to lead headlines, adding a boost to the current record high prices. Unfortunately for consumers at the gasoline pumps, higher oil will probably continue to prop up gasoline prices.

In an already uncertain market, any sort of rumors over supplies will always lead to higher prices, and that is definitely playing a part in the current market. Fresh concerns are flowing out of Iraq after Kurdish rebels threatened to start running suicide operations against American interests in the country. Iran is (as always) in the minds of traders as the country continues to defy the United Nations over its nuclear program.

Oil zoomed past $119 per barrel Friday at mid-day after a cargo ship hired by U.S. military fired warning shots at boats suspected to be Iranian, Reuters reported Friday.

According to a U.S. Navy Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet spokeswoman, the Westward Venture, a cargo ship chartered by the U.S. Department of Defense, fired "a few bursts" of machine gun and rifle fire to warn two, approaching, unidentified small boats believed to be Iranian vessels, Reuters reported Friday. The small boats left the area, a short time later, the spokeswoman said.

Oil jumps $3

Oil surged $3.04 to $119.10 per barrel on word of the incident. The other major energy commodities also rose on the news. Heating oil rose about 4 cents to $3.30 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added about 4 cents to $3.05 per gallon, and natural gas gained 13 cents to $10.92 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz said the incident underscores how one unexpected event in today's oil-challenged world can send the oil markets into buy-mode in seconds.

Oil prices fell to $106 Friday morning on word that oil flows from a southern pipeline hit by saboteurs had resumed, Bloomberg News reported.

Oil fell $1.50 to $106.08 per barrel in early trading Friday. The other major energy commodities also retreated on the news. Heating oil fell about 4 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 2 cents to $2.70 per gallon, and natural gas rose fell 2 cents to $9.70 per million BTUs.

Iraqi oil flows through the country's southern pipeline system to the Basra export terminal returned to normal at about 10 p.m. local time Thursday, an oil official said, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil Analysis: Prior to the Iraq incident, oil had been corrected to the $100 range, on likely lower oil demand and gasoline consumption stemming from the U.S. economic slowdown, and from record-high gasoline prices. However, two incidents this week, the Iraq pipe attack and a below-consensus weekly U.S. oil inventory report, caused a sudden reversal and a $7 spike in oil prices. Assuming bearish fundamentals remain the same -- and there are no further disruptions to supply globally -- traders now expect oil to resume its downward track as the spring season progresses.

Oil prices briefly jumped above $107 Thursday morning on news that saboteurs had blown up a major Iraqi export pipeline, the Agence France-Presse reported.

Oil rose $1.26 to $107.16 per barrel in early trading Thursday, before moderating some, to about $106.50. The other major energy commodities also jumped on the news in early trading Wednesday. Heating oil rose about 5 cents to $3.09 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 1 cent to $2.72 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 3 cents to $9.43 per million BTUs.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday, Samir al-Maksusi, Southern Oil Company spokesman, told the AFP. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil spikes

The Iraq incident marks the second consecutive day a bullish data point has pushed oil prices substantially higher, and underscores the skittish price qualities of the world's most vital commodity, according to independent energy trader Jim Dietz. Dietz said that heading into the week many traders had expected oil to continue to trend lower on sluggish demand for oil and oil products in the U.S., due to its economic slowdown.

Oil closed Thursday up $2.95 to $102.59 per barrel -- another record-high print close -- after a combination of geopolitical, production, and trading factors sent investors piling into crude oil futures as an investment/inflation hedge, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Earlier in the day oil hit an intra-session high of $102.70 -- within 10 cents of the all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel set in April 1980.

The other major energy commodities also rose. Heating oil surged about 6 cents to $2.83 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about 2 cent to $2.49, and natural gas rocketed 39 cents to $9.45 per million BTUs.

Oil prices are off to a strong start this week, as traders are pushing prices higher in reaction to multiple concerns stemming out of the Middle East.

The first factor that is weighing on traders mind's is the Turkish invasion to Iraq. Tension between Turkey and the Kurds in Northern Iraq is nothing new to the area (and violence between the two goes all the way back to 1984), but the current activity is the first confirmed operation by Turkey since the United States began its Iraqi campaign in 2003.

Over the weekend, Turkey announced that one of its helicopters had gone down in Northern Iraq, killing 8 Turkish soldiers. In reaction to that news, Turkey stepped up its force by firing in excess of 40 salvos of artillery into the territory.

Oil Friday closed up 65 cents to $98.85 -- shaking off earlier profit-taking -- after word that Turkey had launched a ground incursion across the border into northern Iraq.

It was the highest three-day print close for oil ever. Oil gained more than $3 this week and closed above $100 twice. (Oil hit an all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel in April 1980.)

Oil: bull, bear battle

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday the market remains volatile and conflicted.

"What we have now is a battle royale. Oil inventories have risen for five weeks and gasoline demand is slowing. Gasoline demand is up less than 1% year-over-year, and that suggests a major drop in oil's price is ahead. Bigtime," Dietz said. "But the bulls aren't giving up. They point to Venezuela's threats to cut-off oil to the U.S., the civil strife in Nigeria that never seems to go away, OPEC's possible March cut, and now Turkey crossing the Iraq border, as bullish signs, and they have a point. So it's a pretty conflicted market right now."