Black Friday has come and gone and the holiday shopping season is off and running. In addition to keeping on eye on how retailers are doing, there will be plenty of other economic data for analysts and investors to peruse on this week.

• Monday: Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index for Q3, Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

It will be a busy week. Republicans are poised to gain control of the House of Representatives and gain governorships in Tuesday's mid-term elections. Also, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce another round of quantitative easing Wednesday, following the FOMC meeting. Major retailers are scheduled to report October same-store sales Thursday, while the October unemployment rate, announced on Friday, is expected to remain at 9.6%.

Toyota's (TM) fiscal second-quarter results will be one of the highlights on the earnings front this week. After three periods of way underestimating Toyota's earnings, have the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters got it right this time? The stock sure could use a boost. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) is in a similar situation; i.e., high expectations for this week's quarterly results but a stock in need of a boost. Marathon (MRO) and Starbucks (SBUX) are also expected to post strong earnings growth this week, but both stocks are riding high.

Favorable economic data pushed stocks near a 100-point gain Tuesday morning. One of the positive reports came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which noted that its service-sector index increased to 53.2 during September. This reading easily outpaced August's reading of 51.5 and handily trumped the Street's estimate for a reading of 52.0.

This reading is good because any readings above 50 signal growth in the service sector. This sector is considered the area where the most jobs are created; ergo, growth in this sector suggests that there will be more hiring on the horizon. On a yearly basis, the index shows that service companies have expanded every month this year.

Alcoa (AA), Marriott (MAR) and Yum! Brands (YUM) kick off the new earnings season this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for moderate year-over-year earnings and revenue growth in the third quarter from each of these dividend payers.

Note that Marriott and Yum! Brands have exceeded consensus estimates in recent quarters and have First Call consensus buy recommendations as well. They are also trading near their 52-week highs, while Alcoa shares are closer to the 52-week low despite a 22% rise in the past three months.

Investors nervous about the possibly stalled economic recovery -- or worse, the beginning of the latter phase of a double-dip recession -- were not pleased with last week's housing numbers. Things were perhaps ameliorated somewhat by durable goods order numbers and a revised GDP that weren't as bad as expected, but that didn't stop the Dow from dipping below 10,000 later in the week, before fighting its way back above the benchmark to end the week, thanks largely to Fed chair Bernanke's comments on Friday.

Though the end of August is usually quiet, this week lots more economic data are due out, including more housing numbers: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June on Tuesday, construction spending numbers for July on Wednesday, and NAR's pending home sales for July on Thursday. There's not expected to be much to get excited about in these numbers.

Wall Street has been on a tear lately. The major indexes gained 7% during the month of July. That's coming off a 14% decline in May and June. Trading volume was light, about 7.63 billion shares, compared with last year's 9.65 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered losing stocks by a three to two margin. The S&P 500 is barely squeaking above its 200-day moving average.

Traders are torn between strong earnings and weak economic data. For the most part, earnings of major corporations topped analysts' estimates. But the numbers on the economy show that the recovery is slowing.

Today was a fairly quiet trading day due to the notion that ISM showed a weaker than expected services spending economy. The other notion is that employment trends remained muted as a follow-on to last week's weak employment data. On an interesting side-bar, gold is losing its luster as a safety trade... probably because the price has become ridiculous in dollar terms and any other currency-related terms. A late day recovery kept most markets in the black for the day.

Here were the closing bell levels:

Dow 9,743.62 +57.14 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,028.06 +5.48 (0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,093.88 +2.09 (0.10%)

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It may be good for the jittery markets that things will be rather quiet on the economic calendar this coming week following the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Markets in the U.S. are closed Monday for the holiday. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) is scheduled to release the results of its next service sector survey Tuesday morning. This release is expected to show no significant change from the bullish May nonmanufacturing index.

With the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. and the fact that the earnings season has largely wound down, things will be fairly quiet on the economic calendar this week. Like the other big Canadian banks did last week, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is expected to post strong second-quarter results. The same is true of Shoe Carnival (SCVL) and its competitor Collective Brands (PSS). But the earnings highlight of the week may come from America's Car-Mart Inc. (CRMT).

Bentonville Ark.-based America's Car-Mart, the largest publicly traded used auto retailer in the U.S., opened new dealerships and upgraded its communications infrastructure in its fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect its earnings to have risen more than 25% from the same period of the previous year. Revenue for the three months that ended in April is expected to have risen about 14% in the past year. The consensus forecast for the full year has EPS up more than 30% and revenue up about 13%. The company's per-share earnings have beat consensus estimates in past four quarters, by as much as 45%.

The so-called cruelest month has begun. And this coming week's economic calendar for the U.S. starts off with the ISM nonmanufacturer's survey results for April and NAR's pending home sales for February on Monday morning. This glimpse at the service and housing sectors will be followed by March's consumer credit numbers Monday afternoon. Then things are pretty quiet until Friday's release of factory orders and wholesale trade numbers for February.

Between the Monday and Friday economic numbers will come the release on Tuesday of the minutes of the March 16 FOMC meeting, a record of the Fed's most recent thinking on monetary policy.

As my colleague Melly Alazraki mentioned this morning, factory order data recently graced the Street. According to the government, factory orders increased 0.6% in February. This data gave the bulls a bit of encouragement, as the major indices began to climb off of their morning lows. Unfortunately, this news appears to be one of the lone bright spots in the day's data.

The Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) reflected a drop to 58.8% from 62.6%. While a drop was expected, this decline was larger than expected. Experts called for a slip to 59.9%.

The Commerce Department reported that factory orders for December rose more than expected. Here are the numbers:

• Orders for durable goods rose 1%. The government had estimated a rise of 0.3% for December. Durables last for several years.
• Bookings for capital goods, a measure of future business investment, rose 2.2%, after a rise of 3.2%.
• Shipments of those goods rose 2.1%. These shipments are used to calculate GDP.
• The economy expanded 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years.
• Purchases of equipment and software increased 13%, the highest since 2006.
• On the negative side, new claims for unemployment rose to 480,000.
• The Institute for Supply Management report showed manufacturing in January expanded at the fastest pace in five years.
• Greater demand for notebooks and desktop computers fueled record sales for hard drives.

While these numbers are tame, the fact that we have slow, steady progress increases business and consumer confidence.

Much of the change in the economy is psychological. As we see steady improvement quarter over quarter, confidence gets restored, business replenishes inventories and consumers are buying again.

Do you believe that we are on the road to recovery?

Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

• Monday is Yom Kippur, the most solemn of the Jewish holidays; trading likely will be lighter than usual. In the evening, the FDIC meets to discuss how to rebuild the Bank Deposit Insurance Fund.
• Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for September is due and the SEC holds a public meeting to consider more short sale actions.

So you finally get to see some growth figures from the ISM and then the market sells off again. We have enjoyed a heck of a run-up and now trading desks are lightening up to boot as we get closer to the 3-day weekend. Today was such a poor result on the market internals that even all the defensive stocks were dropping. Even inverse-leverage ETF's were getting traction again. Bill Gross's bleak outlook probably only added insult to injury today.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,310.60 -185.68 (-1.96%)
S&P 500 998.04 -22.58 (-2.21%)
Nasdaq 1,968.89 -40.17 (-2.00%)

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Construction spending rose 0.3% in June. This is nothing to write home about. In a word, construction spending is practically flat.

The true state of affairs is that construction spending, at $965.7 billion, is down 10.2% from last year. Now that nothing to sneeze at but it is way off from our peak spending.

The good news is that new and existing home sales rose in June by the largest amount in eight years. But again, keep in mind that we are coming off very low numbers.