"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.

He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.

"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.

"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.

"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so:

After rising more or less in line with overall market volume for years, there has been a noticeable surge since the spring in the relative turnover of selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For the SPDR Trust Series 1 ETF (AMEX: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, the average daily volume (ADV) compared to New York Stock Exchange Composite ADV increased from 6.1% in April to 16.8% last month. For the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which emulates the Nasdaq-100 index, the numbers went from 6.3% to 14.1%. For the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (AMEX: IWM), which mirrors the small cap benchmark, relative turnover rose from 3.4% to 6.7%.

Although it's not clear whether the activity was related to hedging or outright position-taking -- or both -- the sharp increase in activity suggests that there has been an important change in the underlying dynamic of the U.S. equity market. If so, it raises some interesting questions.

Could this be a sign, for example, that the influence of hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, and other speculative operators is expanding dramatically? Are investors of all stripes becoming increasingly focused on ETFs as an investing vehicle? Does this emphasis on trading bundles of shares mean that more individual issues are "mispriced"?

Whatever the case, this is a trend worth paying attention to.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Small cap stocks have lagged the broader market for most of this year. Through early this morning, the Russell 2000 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (AMEX: IWM) -- has dropped by 4.3%, while the S&P 500 index has gained 1.7%.

Nonetheless, with investor optimism at multi-year lows, the prospect of another Fed rate cut at the next meeting on December 11th, and some reassuring news from the financial sector, share prices could be bolstered in the near term by some contrarian bargain-hunting.

Technically speaking, the Russell 2000 has formed a bullish double bottom on both the absolute and relative charts. Given that, small cap shares may be just the way to play a near-term corrective bounce.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

The short interest for the NYSE is out for the second half of September. The NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) actually showed a small increase in the total shares short on the NYSE: the September 28 settlement short interest was 11,878,834,897, above the 11,841,051,529 reading of September 14, 2007. This represents 3.1% of the total shares outstanding.

The raw truth is that this is actually a very small gain of only just over 37,000,000 shares. But it follows what was a large drop from mid-August to mid September as mid-August was in the midst of the market malaise with 12,466,511,521 shares listed as being short. Just at the end of last month I had noted that short selling Internet stocks showed mixed results. There had previously been a large drop in major banking stock short interest, but we also showed how housing and retail stocks had been under short selling pressure.

You can see the full list of the September 28 settlement date short stocks at the site, but here are the top 10 (with short interest):

• iShares Russel 2000 Index (NYSE: IWM) 258,152,676
• Ford Motor (NYSE: F) 177,621,324
• Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) 84,338,020
• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) 76,350,102
• Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) 76,100,928
• General Electric (NYSE: GE) 65,851,636
• Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) 64,874,719
• Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) 62,259,216
• Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) 57,387,316
• General Motors (NYSE: GM) 56,515,532

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options - VIX up 3.61 to 21.67 10-day moving average is 16.98 according to Track Data.

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 - VXN up 2.25 to 21.16; 10-day moving average is 17.80 according to Track Data.

NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ overall option Implied Volatility at 21: 26-week average is 19.

Semiconductor Holders Trust - SMH option implied Volatility 25; 26-week average is 22.

IShares Russell 2000 - IWM option implied volatility at 28, 26-week average is 19.

ISE Sentiment Index - ISEE 91 new Calls purchased for every new Put today. ISEE 10-day moving average is 150. ISEE 50-day moving average is 139.

August front month Equity Options expire; 8/17/07.

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com