After loosely tracking the U.S. publicly traded real estate sector for more than a decade, foreign property shares have been on a relative performance tear, significantly beating their American counterparts over the course of the past two years.
Since last April, the Dow Jones Wilshire Ex-U.S. Real Estate Securities Index (which has an equivalent U.S. exchange-traded fund, or ETF (NYSE: RWX)) has outperformed the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index (NYSE: IYR) by 13.8%; over two years, the relative gain has been 22.9%. While some of the difference is accounted for by weakness in the dollar -- the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen by 5.6% and 3.7% over one and two years, respectively -- the bulk of the gains have come from absolute performance in local currency terms.

Yesterday, however, Spanish property shares were hit by a wave of selling, with worries regarding a small but high-flying builder, Astroc Mediterraneo SA, serving as the ostensible catalyst. Following on from that, investors also began paying attention to the fact that more than 800,000 homes were built in Spain last year, "leaving a glut of property hanging over the market," according to a report in the London Daily Telegraph.
The U.S. real estate sector, meanwhile, has been lagging the benchmark S&P 500 Index since March, amid growing signs that problems related to the bursting housing bubble and the meltdown in the subprime finance sector are spreading outward.
With Spanish property shares remaining unsettled today, despite a bounce in that and other European markets, the recent turmoil could be an early warning sign marking the beginning of the end for foreign property shares -- and, perhaps, a sign of much more trouble to come for the real estate industry as a whole.
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.