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Jack in the Box shares at bottom of trading channel

Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX) owns and operates, or franchises, more than 2,000 Jack in the Box quick-service hamburger restaurants at locations in sixteen southern, midwestern and western states. The stores serve such standard fast-food fare as burgers, fries and breakfast items. The company also runs a chain of more than 300 Qdoba Mexican Grill fast-casual restaurants.

Earlier this week, the firm completed the repurchase of 2.3 million shares. The total value of the transactions was about $142.5 million. Late last month, it surprised Wall Street with fiscal Q4 EPS of 71 cents (ex-items) and revenues of $670.7 million. Analysts had been expecting 66 cents and $661.2 million. Management also guided Q1 EPS to 78-81 cents (78 cent consensus) and FY07 EPS to $3.02-$3.07 ($2.75 consensus). The news has kept JBX shares cycling through a positive two-month trading channel. The price is currently consolidating at the base of that channel, where technical parameters suggest the potential for a rise back toward the top. The approximate correspondence of the stock's 30-day moving average to the base of the channel backs the rebound notion.

Brokers recommend the issue with one "strong buy", one "buy", six "holds" and a "sell". The JBX P/E ratio (19.98), Price to Sales ratio (0.79), Price to Book ratio (2.97) and Price to Cash Flow ratio (11.06) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions own about 95 percent of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past twelve months, it has traded between $33.15 and $64.60. Should you decide to invest, consider a stop-loss of $52.70.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Analyst downgrades 12-12-06: Nokia, Wendy's, Yum!

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nokia (NOK) and selected restaurants topped today's extensive list of downgrades:

  • Due to slowing in the wireless sector, Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK) to Neutral from Buy, following Texas Instruments' (NYSE:TXN) lowered guidance;
  • Citing valuations and a deteriorating outlook, Buckingham downgraded shares of Darden Restaurants Inc (NYSE:DRI) and Wendy's Inernational Inc. (NYSE:WEN) to Neutral from Accumulate, as well as Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) and Jack in the Box Inc. (NYSE:JBX) to Underperform from Neutral.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • JP Morgan downgraded Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE:MU) to Neutral from Overweight based on concerns of growing inventory levels and a weaker-than-expected flash market in the first half of 2007.
  • Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) was removed from Sandler's Focus List.
  • Calyon downgraded Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE:JCI) to Neutral from Buy with an $85 target, citing valuation and the weakening economy.
  • RBC Capital Markets downgraded Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) to Underperform from Sector Perform on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Landmark case: A sandwich is not a burrito

Many years ago, when I was in law school, I had to read lots of boring legal cases. From time to time, though, there would be a crazy case to liven things up.

Well, we got one recently. Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), which is a large bakery-cafe chain, sued Qdoba Mexican Grill, which is owned by Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX). Qdoba wanted to move into a mall in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts. The mall already had a Panera, and Panera's lawyers had cleverly negotiated an important clause in its lease agreement: the mall was prohibited from renting to another sandwich shop.

The ruling? The judge dismissed Panera's claim. His analysis was that, technically speaking, a burrito is not a sandwich. Simply put, a burrito involves only one tortilla, whereas a sandwich has two slices of bread.

Yes, it looks like he's on solid ground. Of course, Panera's attorneys disagree and will appeal.

It's enough to make me wish I were back in law school.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Cramer discusses some more buyout names

Earlier on the STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Cramer showed 3 ideas for possible buyouts. He thought private equity would possibly consider Cumulus Media (CMLS) for radio. Cramer also noted fast food plays Jack in the Box (JBX) and Sonic (SONC) as potential buyout candidates.

He also thought private equity would consider TJX Corp (TJX) and Limited (LTD) in retail.

Cramer's only cautious stock was Pepsi (PEP) because of the large exposure to chips and snacks, and said it lost its fizz.

Cramer hot hot HOT for Chipotle Mexican Grill: 'burrito investing'

chipotle mexican grillTonight Jim Cramer took a page from a TV man oh-so-like himself and kicked it up a notch! For his second feature stock on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Cramer got hot and bothered over Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG). What about pizza? Cramer says it's "out," after all, look at California Pizza Kitchen, Inc. (NASDAQ:CPKI), which is down 10% at $28.35 after-hours because of cautioning that its outlook wasn't quite so tasty despite a great third quarter. When pizza is out? Fast Mexican food is in.

See, Cramer isn't just an investor. He's also a food critic. And this is a case where the food critic and the investor can come together for "burrito investing." Cramer said he was in denial that pizza sales were down and he thought it was maybe just a Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) issue, but he was wrong. Domino's had had same store sales declines since Q4 of last year. Before Cramer even mentioned CMG the stock gapped over 2% to $58.00 in after-hours trading on NYSE/Archipelago trading.

Cramer calls burritos "the new pizza." Stay away from names like Papa John's Int'l, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA), says Cramer, as people are leaving for "Taco John's." Also of note in the hot Mexican trend is Jack in the Box Inc. (NYSE:JBX) for its Qdoba Mexican Grills (3% of JBX business), which he said that the place wasn't bad. Cramer said he is hesitant to be a BUY BUY BUY, but it has come down a bit. Cramer said that salsa is now the number 1 condiment in America. Cramer said you may never replace pizza in America, but investors need to be in burritos as people are eating more Mexican food than pizza. CMG & JBX are trumping PZZA & DPZ.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

[Photo Shane Adams]

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