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4Kids Entertainment's Q2 loss is not fun at all

4Kids Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: KDE), a licensing operation meant to target kids with various toys and potential fads, suffered through a terrible second quarter. The top line increased 37% to $16.5 million. Sounds pretty good so far, right? Yeah, then we get to the bottom line. The net loss was $0.42 per share. This compares to a net loss of $0.17 per share in the previous year's Q2. And what did Wall Street think the company was going to lose? About $0.23 per share, according to Earnings.com. I'd call that a rather bad shortfall.

The press release promoted the fact that the Chaotic trading-card asset is performing up to expectations. 4Kids is very hopeful that it can create momentum behind the cards and eventually turn them into another Pokemon or Yu-Gi-Oh! franchise. Maybe management can, maybe it can't. That's the problem with 4Kids. It's difficult to retain a desire to allocate investment funds into this stock since you can never really tell what product line is eventually going to win out for the company. It's a constant exercise in speculation. For instance, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was weak this quarter compared to the year-ago period. Who knows if the property will be hot again two quarters from now. Going with a Hasbro, Inc. (NYSE: HAS), a Mattel, Inc. (NYSE: MAT), or a JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) would probably make for safer sledding.

4Kids' stock is up slightly as I write, and it isn't far from its 52-week low. It isn't cheap, and it isn't a buy. This is the kind of stock you would definitely need to see some momentum strength in before buying. Otherwise, you'd be risking too much. Granted, the stock has been strong the last month or so, but considering today's earnings report, I'd need to see it get well over $10 per share before I'd take another look.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Why I am still avoiding LeapFrog

LeapFrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF) reported a decent quarter, but I won't be buying the stock. I just think there are better ideas out there in this sector. First, let's play around with the numbers.

For Q2, LeapFrog saw its top line increase by 22% to a little over $68 million. The net loss was 32 cents per share versus a net loss of 44 cents a year earlier. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting the loss to be about 44 cents per share. There was, however, a little help from a tax benefit in the quarter; last year, the company recorded a tax expense. LeapFrog not only scored on the bottom line, but it also expanded its gross margin. So, the quarter seemed all right. But, I then look at the cash flow statement and see that LeapFrog has been using cash for operations the last six months. In the similar time period a year ago, LeapFrog reported positive operational cash flow.

LeapFrog's stock was up over 5% in after-hours trading on Monday after the earnings release. The stock has been strong in a bad market according to the AOL Finance snapshot, and the pop in the after-hours session placed it close to a 52-week high. Again, though, I think there are better ideas out there. Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) is a toy company I'd much rather align my portfolio with. I could even look at Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK).

I know that the stock may be signaling better times ahead, and toy companies certainly make their profits in the latter part of the year, but I still am cautious on this business. When I wrote about the company's fiscal year, I also noted bad cash-flow characteristics, as well losses on the bottom line. So, in the end, I just don't want my portfolio to play around with this low-priced equity.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Hasbro beats expectations, but the stock sells off -- what gives?

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), big rival of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), reported Q2 earnings on Monday, and as Melly Alazraki stated in her Before the Bell article, the toy company had some fun business results. Revenues rose over 13% to $784.3 million, and net income increased over eight times to $0.25 per share. This number beat analyst expectations by three pennies.

Yet, the stock is down today, as of this writing, by over 2%. What the heck? Well, one thing that should be noted on the earnings growth is that it really isn't as huge as it appears on the surface. Last year at this time, the company took back some warrants issued to George Lucas' media empire that caused the GAAP earnings to come in at quite a low number. If you take the effect of them out of the equation, then, unfortunately, earnings only grew this quarter by a measly penny.

Of course, it's also a tepid market day, so that could also be working against the stock. However, inflation is an issue as well. According to this article from Reuters, the specter of rising input costs is being felt. But does this mean I should no longer be bullish on the company? While I feel that inflation is something to watch with Hasbro, I remain bullish on the shares, although I would wait for a pullback so a higher yield can be received for one's investment dollars. It's difficult, I suppose, to be bullish on a toy company when I am personally bearish on both the economy and the equities markets, but I do like the recent strength of Hasbro's stock and I like the prospects for its brands (e.g., Star Wars, Transformers) ahead of the holiday season. Hasbro's portfolio is keeping me going...hopefully it will keep the stock going, too.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Mattel receives an upgrade, but I'm not ready to buy

Mattel (NYSE: MAT), a toy company that competes with Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), got some good news earlier this week. Its stock was upgraded by analyst Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets, according to the AP, although it wasn't necessarily an overwhelming vote of confidence. The analyst is switching the rating from "underperform" to "market perform," and if you check out the AP piece, you'll see that he basically is saying that while he doesn't see a big reason to sell the stock, he doesn't see a big reason to buy it either. This was a call based on simple valuation.

I was glad when I read this clarification because, when I first spied this headline, I was a bit flummoxed. I honestly didn't expect Mattel to receive some huge upgrade at this point, even though I agree that the stock is certainly cheap. My main reason for this hinges on the best-of-breed character of Mattel's colleague Hasbro. I just wrote about this company and the strength of its stock at the beginning of the week, and if I were to buy any toy business right now, it probably would be the maker of Monopoly and Mr. Potato Head. Hasbro's got the brand strength as well as the stock strength, it seems, and even though Mattel packs a dividend-yield punch at over 4%, this market might be too tough to go with companies that are nowhere near a bullish trend.

Long-term, the maker of Barbie will rebound. Short-term, it may languish. So you'll have to consider your timeframe when taking a look at Mattel and Hasbro. Mattel does have a nice yield, but Hasbro and its product portfolio could be better positioned come the holiday season. It's going to be an interesting battle between these two rivals once the weather turns cold...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Will Hasbro's stock continue to perform?

CNNMoney over the weekend reviewed the first half of the year for the markets. Among its lists of winners and losers, one stock got my attention.

Believe it or not, Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), a competitor of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK), was up quite nicely through the end of June. How nice? The stock increased in value by almost 40%. That's impressive, but is it persuasive? What I mean is, should one believe that the company's first-half strength is an undeniable indication that the trend will continue for the rest of the year?

I have been bullish on Hasbro and I think it's a great company that should benefit from the upcoming holiday season, but should doesn't necessarily imply would. We are in what I would call an all-bets-are-off market. The bears, and their claws, are slashing their way through the hallowed halls of Wall Street, and if the negative-wealth effect really gets going, thus further damaging consumer confidence, then one would have to wonder how Hasbro will fare in the second half of the year.

Without a doubt, though, put Hasbro on your watch list and perform some due diligence on the company. It's got some great brands in its portfolio like Monopoly and Transformers, and keep in mind that its Star Wars line is due to receive a nice catalytic jolt from the upcoming Star Wars: The Clone Wars animated project. Hasbro's stock dropped almost 7% in the last month. This followed a lot of up months. If the stock experiences a further pullback, and the dividend yield rises, it may become attractive.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

JAKKS Pacific loses expectations game, but is it still reasonably priced?

Toymaker JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) lost the expectations game earlier this week, my friend. Wall Street was looking for more in terms of earnings per share than the company was apparently able to deliver. Was JAKKS playing around too much these last three months? Who knows -- this business can certainly be fickle, after all.


For the first quarter, JAKKS saw its revenues increase over 5% to nearly $131 million. Earnings per diluted share came in at $0.03 if you take into account litigation expenses, restructuring charges, etc. On an adjusted basis, JAKKS earned $0.13 per share, compared to a year-ago adjusted earnings of $0.14 per share. According to Briefing.com, this was $0.06 less than what the Street wanted.

JAKKS, which competes with Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) and Mattel (NYSE: MAT), didn't have a great quarter, it's true. But I've always found this company and stock to be an interesting one, as it seems to do well over time with its various licensed products, such as merchandise based on some Disney (NYSE: DIS) brands, including Hannah Montana, and toys based on Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Nickelodeon channel.

Whenever the stock is on a pullback, it always catches my attention (although, I should point out, I have never owned it). In addition, the balance sheet appears to be in good shape: there's a nice amount of cash and cash equivalents at $238 million, long-term debt has remained stable, and the accounts receivable line is down.

JAKKS is still forecasting $2.91 per diluted share for the current fiscal year. Given the share price as of this writing, the P/E ratio on the stock remains compelling.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

More losses for LeapFrog

LeapFrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF) is a toy company which competes with Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), Mattel (NYSE: MAT), and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK). At least, it tries to compete with those other companies.

According to LeapFrog's latest earnings report, the amphibious one hasn't jumped over to the black lily pad just yet. For the fourth quarter, revenue was flat at $181.3 million and the loss was 51 cents per share compared with a loss of 73 cents in the year-ago period. For the full year, revenue decreased 12% to $442.3 million, and the loss was $1.60 per share versus $2.31 in 2006.

Yeah, the losses may be narrowing, and the gross margins may be improving, but the company had negative operational cash flow, and it experienced write-offs for its major Fly Fusion brand. These are bad things, but the company has a few good plot points to its toy story: no debt, a good set of licensed products for its Leapster brand, and something called the Tag reading system, which Zack Miller covered back in January.

This one seems to be a no-brainer to me: LeapFrog just isn't worth one's investment dollars. Sure, it may come back at a later date on the heels of an innovative product launch, but it is a low-priced equity (currently trading in the area of $6 a stub as of this writing) that is losing money in a sector where better ideas exist. Don't leap into this one, folks! (Please tell me I didn't just write that...).

JAKKS Pacific had a merry holiday season

JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) didn't toy around during the holiday quarter -- it got serious and delivered some solid growth. For the fourth quarter, JAKKS increased its top line by nearly 20% to $285.1 million. Earnings per diluted share jumped 45% to $1.06.

The company cited various members of its toy portfolio as drivers for the Q4 season, including those joystick videogames that you plug directly into the TV -- you've got to admit, those are pretty fun, especially the one with Galaxian. Also, the company mentioned that items based on Disney (NYSE: DIS) properties turned out to be big helpers during Christmas. And, yes, they had to mention Hannah Montana -- they have a plug-and-play joystick title based on the pop princess. Sure, she's a fad, but she's still going strong for now.

JAKKS may play in the highly competitive world of toys, but it's definitely doing all right, even as it fights it out in the trenches with biggies Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and Hasbro (NYSE: HAS). It focuses on building little unique niches for itself, and it knows how to effectively work the licensing game; in addition to Disney stuff, JAKKS makes products based on Viacom's (NASDAQ: VIA) Nickelodeon characters and Neopets universe. The stock doesn't look too expensive here, so it's worth a look if you are looking to gain some exposure to retail toys, although I'd probably keep it on a watch list in anticipation of a pullback.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares in Disney.

JAKKS Pacific: Toys for fun and profit

Toys are for fun, but firms that make the right kind also make a lot of money. One of the top five U.S. players in the toys and leisure products sector is headquartered in Malibu, California.

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) is engaged in the development, production and marketing of toys and related products. The firm produces action figures, activity sets, die-cast and plastic cars, preschool toys, pens, markers and fashion dolls. The products are sold to such retailers as Target (NYSE:TGT) and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported Q4 EPS of 73 cents and revenues of $238.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 68 cents and $231.7 million. Management also guided Q1 EPS to 7-10 cents (5 cent consensus), Q1 revenues to $114-$120 million ($120.27M consensus), FY07 EPS to $2.39 ($2.33 consensus) and FY07 revenues to $800 million ($783.02M consensus). JAKK shares popped through 90-day moving average resistance on the news and have since begun consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the shares with one "buy, four "holds" and two "sells." The JAKK P/E ratio (10.65), PEG ratio (0.82), Price to Sales ratio (0.88), Price to Book ratio (1.10), Price to Cash Flow ratio (6.99), Sales Growth rate (43.30%) and EPS Growth rate (143.33%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

Institutions hold about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 12 months, it has traded between $15.26 and $28.50. A stop-loss of $21 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 04:06 PM

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