jamie dlugosch posts
FeedPosted Jul 19th 2009 9:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Sell
Similar to Dupont, I selected Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) as a stock to avoid due to rising input prices and low margins. It is a simple formula that cannot be broken: If a company cannot pass along higher costs, it will make less.
The market has yet to grasp that concept with respect to EMN. The stock has more than doubled since bottoming in March and has skyrocketed during the second quarter. This is in stock contrast to the poor performance at Dupont.
Continue reading Stock to avoid #6 -- Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Posted Jul 18th 2009 1:00PM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Boeing Co (BA), Stocks to Sell
For the first two months of the second quarter Boeing (NYSE: BA) was on fire. BA gained significantly during that time, but then the company announced a delay in their much-awaited DreamShip -- a delay that opened the door for the airlines to cancel orders. Speculation based on that scenario slapped the stock back down to the flat line for the second quarter.
Unfortunately, the news does not get better for Boeing. There is too much capacity in the airline space, and new planes are not needed.
I would be a seller of Boeing today.
Next: Stock to Avoid #6
Posted Jul 18th 2009 11:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Sell
Given the economic crisis and global recession, I hypothesized that multinationals may suffer as a result of a strong dollar. The idea being that investors would flock to the dollar in search of safety. Over the last quarter though, the reverse has been true.
The dollar weakened significantly as investors bet against the greenback due to inflationary spending in the U.S. As a result, the multinationals have been big winners in the last quarter.
3M (NYSE: MMM) though was only up slightly in the second quarter as the company's products failed to capture the imagination of buyers across the globe. When the dollar strengthens in the latter half of 2009, look for MMM to stumble.
Next: Stock to Avoid #4
Posted Jul 18th 2009 10:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Oil, Stocks to Sell
Another stock leveraged to the oil market is Dupont (NYSE: DD). Because many of the company's products are derived from crude oil, rising oil prices negatively impact profit margins. The only recourse, then, is to raise the price for consumers. But doing so in this environment is unlikely given the weakness in the economy.
As a result, the dynamics of the market are such that profits for DD will be lower in the near term.
That puts the company in a bit of a Catch-22.
Continue reading Stock to avoid #2 -- Dupont (DD)
Posted Jul 18th 2009 8:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: American Express (AXP), Boeing Co (BA), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Eastman Kodak (EK), United Technologies (UTX), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Stocks to Sell
With such uncertainty, following an absolute return strategy continues to offer investors the biggest bang for their buck. There is no sense in guessing where the market will be down the road.
Instead, buy cheap stocks and sell stocks that are expensive. Then blend the two approaches together in one portfolio and chances are you'll make money.
Even with a huge rally in stocks, the S&P 500 ended the second quarter with a year-to-date gain of 1.78%. That is a vast improvement compared to the 11% loss at the end of the first quarter, but it's a minimal return for taking risk in the stock market.
Investors need to do better -- and they can.
Continue reading Take a pass on these ten stocks
Posted Jun 27th 2009 9:00AM by Jamie Dlugosch (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Competitive Strategy, Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Economic Data, Oil, Stocks to Sell, Earnings Transcripts
You have to love OPEC. It's not uncommon for the barons of the giant cartel to voice their interest in seeing oil at such-and-such a price.
Recently, OPEC reiterated its desire to see oil prices at $80 per barrel. This, they claim, is the price needed to spur additional investment in crude projects. Apparently, anything less will result in oil sitting idle in the ground.
Continue reading Sell these hot oil stocks for big profits now
Posted Jun 19th 2009 9:00AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports
Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) traveled to Wall Street on Thursday to deliver its Q3 earnings numbers. The market thought that the results were worthy of a 10% increase in the stock price. Winnebago closed yesterday at $7.15 per share. The 52-week low on the stock is $3.14. Volume was active during the trading session. So, is Winnebago a buy?
Let's check out some of the stats. According to the press release (pdf file), net sales saw a very steep decline of more than 60%. Winnebago lost 29 cents per share in this year's third quarter versus a profit of 10 cents per share in last year's similar period. However, analysts expected a loss of 27 cents per share. Since Winnebago didn't beat the analyst community, you have to wonder why the market was so excited and in a frenzy to bid shares higher.
Continue reading Winnebago doesn't win the expectations game in Q3
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