Solar energy may be the wave of energy's future, but companies such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) may best start-ups in getting to the benefits. A number of large American companies with tremendous balance sheets are pouring money into solar energy based on the fact that it is becoming more competitive with oil.
According toBloomberg, "Costs for the technology will fall below coal as soon as 2020, the U.S. government estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. invested last year in the biggest solar plant built in a generation; Chevron and Google are funding research; and Goldman Sachs is seeking land to lease as demand out-paces wind turbines and geothermal."
Given the potential size of the bonanza, the investments should not be surprising, but they could squeeze smaller solar energy companies out of the market. Firms like JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and SunTech (NYSE: STP) have their entire futures bet on the success of solar energy and the fact that there are not many companies in the business, at least until now.
It has began to occur to large companies that if fossil fuels will indeed start to run low in two or three decades that the trillions of dollars in market cap currently represented in large oil company stocks will have to go somewhere.
Experience has taught me to respect the price action the day after earnings. So when I see LDK trying to break out of a now 5-month old range, pretty much between $30 and $40 -- yes it was up to $50 in January and $20 in March, but those are outliers -- this is a very bearish sign. It's so bearish that I suspect that unless solar plays really heat up again, this stock will need many more weeks or months to break $40, and even then, it's got a ton of resistance all over the place due to bitter buyers in at much higher prices who will be looking to cut their losses.
Everyone is talking about solar. Whether you believe that solar energy will somehow displace an oil-driven economy or not (I don't), some of these stocks like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) have seen big gains over the past few years.
The success of solar companies has not been lost on ETF firms with their constant new products hitting the market. A smaller ETF firm called Claymore Securities looks to be first to the market with a solar ETF, the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, with an aptly-named ticker, (NYSE: TAN).
Peter Way selects his buys by following the trading activity of block traders -- those making large, million dollar bets. Here's the latest from his Block Trader Oil & Gold Monitor.
"The volume stock market liquidity-providers are hedging their necessary position risks in ways that foretell declining oil stock prices. Their records on such outlooks in the past are pretty good, so pay attention.
"The million-dollar market-makers are not always right, and here they tend to be a bit early, but it's obvious they can save you some grief and provide a chance to pick up some meaningful extra profit.
"From our recent review of energy ETFs, we also note that the pros' perception seems to be that energy stocks have been bid up too far. Ok, so what to do? Sell the oil holdings? Then where to put the proceeds?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Monsanto, AstraZeneca and Millenium Pharmaceutical were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Banc of America upgraded shares of Monsanto (NYSE: MON) to Buy from Neutral as they have grown more comfortable with two previous concerns: competition and valuation. They see an attractive entry point ahead of strong expected results for Q2.
UBS upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Neutral from Sell on valuation, as they believe many of the risks are priced into shares at current levels.
Piper upgraded Millenium Pharma (NASDAQ: MLNM) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to their Alpha List ahead of additional front-line Velcade presentations at ASCO and expected front-line Velcade approval by June 20.
UBS has upgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) to "neutral" with a short-term "sell" rating, according toMarketWatch.
Morgan Stanley downgraded AIG (NYSE:AIG) to "equal weight" from "overweight," according toBriefing.com. The news service also said that UBS upgraded Humana (NYSE:HUM) to "neutral" from "sell".
JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) was raised to "overweight "at Lehman Brothers according to 24/7 Wall St.
Last month at the Sundance Film Festival, I saw some great movies, partied it up a bit and schmoozed with celebrities. Perhaps it's the pseudo-celebrity status that came with my TV show or the $300,000+ personal loss I took on an investment I truly believed in, but I never get starstruck anymore. Not with celebrities and definitely not with companies. And as an investor, you can learn from this. I'll explain.
While at the festival, I bumped into "celebrity" Maria Bello, and my ability to have a casual conversation with her led to an interesting encounter highlighted by some flirting and several great pictures (see them all HERE).
Ms. Bello barely gave starstruck, incredibly crazed, fans the time of day; after all, nobody -- celebrity or not -- can really take anybody who's screaming and crying in awe of their presence very seriously. So, while it was a fun moment for me, I couldn't help but think how this related to the stock market.
Over the past few months, solar stocks have had more than their fair share of ups and downs. Last month, they were so volatile it seemed as if I was writing an article about another solar play every other day, introducing investors to the sector by casting the characters in a fictional movie to be called Solar's Eleven, encouraging buying on breakouts in this article, and warning investors to drop them as if they were poorly selling music artists in this article. (Yes, I go over the top sometimes, but it's all to help you better understand how the stock market works.)
So, what changed? Perception. While these companies all still have great potential, they are speculative and in bear markets, speculative stocks, especially those that don't continuously put out spectacular news, get crushed -- as shareholders in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) and VMware (NYSE: VMW) have learned the hard way.
On Friday, I bought shares of solar cell maker Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) not because I think solar is a great business these days -- I do -- but because the company's stock showed exceptional strength on Friday, closing at a new high. And it did this smack in the face of short sellers who are betting on lower stock prices and, perhaps more importantly, after consolidating nicely over the past few weeks.
At Friday's closing price of $28.76, the stock is still $3 off its all-time intraday high of $31.80, but this strong close tells me there's the potential for further upside, no matter how many people refuse to believe it. Strong earnings/guidance, a new big time investor, and this sector's new-found popularity (as I noted in this article) and a whole lot of hype have helped this stock double from the low teens in November (along with other surging solar plays like Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO).
The majority of market commentators advise investors to stay away because the price surges are mania-esque, valuations can be argued as stretched, the solar industry has capacity issues, and most importantly, they don't want to risk losing their jobs or getting sued after some beginner investor loses his or her life savings by thinking these stocks could triple again within a month. I agree; while this sector is certainly not for everyone, I've made millions playing these volatile stocks. So take it from someone who's seen this thousands of times before; while there's upside, stocks that move this quickly on speculative news can also come crashing down even quicker -- as investors in LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) learned the hard way -- if and when the pendulum reverses.
East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $36 target at B. Riley; the firm's target implies a 23.1% potential total return over the next twelve months including the stock's 1.35% dividend yield.
Tempur Pedic (NYSE: TPX) was started with an Outperform rating at William Blair, as they find the current valuation attractive for long-term investor given the company's strong position in the specialty sleep products.
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) with a Hold rating and $29 target, citing the strength of the Canadian dollar and difficult newsprint fundamentals.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Banc of America initiated shares of JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) with Buy ratings and targets of $73 and $76, and initiated Horizon Lines (NYSE: HRZ) and Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) with Neutral ratings and targets of $34 and $14.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, JA Solar, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia and Ericsson were today's noteworthy initiations:
First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ: JASO) were initiated with Buy ratings and targets of $160 and $61 at Collins Stewart. Collins Stewart sees room for margin expansion and is positive on First Solar after channel checks; the firm expects JA Solar to expand capacity given its long-term supply agreements with four wafer suppliers.
Merrill Lynch started shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) with a Sell rating, citing a lack of revenue growth prospects.
The firm also started shares of Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) with a Buy rating, as they believe the company's share gains and margin expansion will continue.
Merrill also resumed coverage of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) with a Neutral rating, expecting high single digit earnings and share growth, but not enough for a Buy rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Goldman initiated the trucking and railroad sectors with Neutral ratings.