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Low cost carriers own 30% of domestic airline biz, growing fast

For years, it's been evident that smaller airlines have had an operating advantage, particularly when they use less expensive airports. They've been able to post better numbers as a result, and in the current travel slump, they've outperformed the larger carriers. Well, they've also picked up a considerable amount of market share.

According to a report by USA Today, low cost carriers now have 30% of the market in the United States. Price-sensitive consumers are turning to cheaper alternatives, even if it means (for fliers with elite status) giving up the perks they've earned through years of customer loyalty.

Continue reading Low cost carriers own 30% of domestic airline biz, growing fast

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMZN, BA, BAC, F, LUV, LYG T, WEN ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • RBC Capital upgraded Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to Outperform from Sector Perform and said the company has attractive franchise value and earnings power, and is nearing the start of a credit driven earnings recovery. The firm raised its target to $22 from $19.
  • Oppenheimer assumed coverage of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform. The firm expects Amazon's revenue growth to re-accelerate over the next several quarters, making consensus estimates too conservative. Opco set a $130 price target on the stock.
  • Barclays upgraded Ford (NYSE: F) to Equal Weight from Underweight and believes the company will report Q3 results above the Street. The firm raised its Q3 EPS estimate to 7 cents from 16 cents, vs. consensus of 21 cents, and its price target to $8 from $7.
  • Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • Briggs & Stratton (NYSE: BGG) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  • Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMZN, BA, BAC, F, LUV, LYG T, WEN ...

Southwest Airlines to post a profit for Q3?

Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), the Dallas-based low-cost air carrier, is scheduled to discuss its third quarter 2009 financial results in a conference call Thursday at 11:30 AM ET hosted by CEO Gary Kelly and CFO Laura Wright. You can catch the live webcast on the company's website.

During the three months that ended in September, Southwest began service to Boston Logan, prepared a bid to acquire Frontier Airlines, and declared its 132nd consecutive quarterly dividend. But analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report that earnings fell from 9 cents per share a year ago to a penny per share. Sales for the quarter are expected to be 9.7% lower to $2.6 billion.

Continue reading Southwest Airlines to post a profit for Q3?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMR, DT, HOG, JBLU, LULU, VLO ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • JPMorgan upgraded Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) to Overweight from Neutral following its gold valuation analysis. The firm set a $54 price target on Barrick shares and a $47 price target on Goldcorp shares.
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Market Weight and raised its target to $24 from $15, citing the company's improving end market demand, competitive position, and valuation.
  • Barclays upgraded AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the company's improved liquidity position and what they believe to be the beginning of a multi-year profit cycle for the sector. Despite the upgrade, the firm lowered its target to $14 from $20.
  • Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
  • Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMR, DT, HOG, JBLU, LULU, VLO ...

Short City Update: WPO: stopped-out; JBLU: cover short

Here's an update on two shorts: The Washington Post and JetBlue:

Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO). Short price on May 6, 2009: $344.72. Stopped out for loss at $460. Dead wrong with this one: can't win them all. The Post's education segment has grown revenue enough to offset the declines at the signature print newspaper. A modest U.S. recovery will continue to weigh on the print newspaper side's revenue and earnings, but cost cuts and the development of its online unit mean WPO will be a metro daily survivor after the news/media sector's Internet-compelled transformation.

Continue reading Short City Update: WPO: stopped-out; JBLU: cover short

August a sluggish month for U.S. airlines

August brought more misery to the airline industry in the United States. Seven of the country's nine largest carriers saw traffic drop, with only Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) and JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU) bucking the trend. The continued upward climb of unemployment, tighter corporate budgets and sluggish demand for leisure travel has resulted in fewer passengers in seats.

JetBue was the only carrier not to report a drop in available seat miles (ASMs), the primary measure of airline productivity. Load factors, however, which indicate how full a plane is, tended to be higher, largely a result of flights that have been cut in an effort to reduce costs.

Continue reading August a sluggish month for U.S. airlines

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BA, FRO, GENZ, JBLU, MS, VARI ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • FBR Capital upgraded Frontline (NYSE: FRO) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's above-average day rates and alleviated near-term financing pressures. The firm raised its target on shares to $23 from $14.
  • Baird upgraded Varian Medical (NASDAQ: VARI) to Outperform from Neutral and said checks at ESTRO meeting indicate European radiation therapy market demand will remain "respectable" in 2010 and that launch of Unique could drive incremental demand in developing markets. The firm has a $49 target on shares.
  • Goldman believes GameStop (NYSE: GME) Street expectations are beatable and valuation is attractive. The firm upgraded shares to Conviction Buy from Neutral and has a $28 target.
  • Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
  • KKR Financial (NYSE: KFN) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
  • Cathay Pacific (OTC: CPCAY) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BA, FRO, GENZ, JBLU, MS, VARI ...

Could cancellation fees save the airlines?

There may be new hope for the perpetually ailing airline industry. While I wouldn't expect these companies to become top performers anytime soon, it looks like the best revenue stream is the one nobody's been talking about: change and cancellation fees.

These penalties, which can reach up to $150, bring $2 billion in revenue into the industry annually. According to the Department of Transportation, they were good for $527.6 million in the first quarter -- in the United States alone. This is 3.2% of U.S. airline revenue.

American Airlines parent AMR (NYSE: AMR) raked in $116 million in revenue from these penalties in the first quarter of 2009 -- compared to $108 million from the more highly publicized extra bag fees. For JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU), the numbers are smaller (JetBlue, of course, isn't as big as AMR) but no less compelling. By pumping its change and cancellation fee from $100 to $150, the airline scored $32.2 million in Q1 2009, up from $25 million in Q1 2008.

Continue reading Could cancellation fees save the airlines?

JetBlue shakes tin cup, seeks around $250 million

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) is looking to sell 20 million shares of common stock and $150 million in convertible debt. Miserable conditions for the airline industry have led the low-cost carrier to turn to financial markets for the infusion that operations can't seem to deliver.

The debt, which is convertible into common stock, will be sold in two $75 million series. And the 20 million common shares would raise another $101 million (at yesterday's closing price of $5.03). If there's enough demand for the debt and equity securities, JetBlue may sell another 3 million shares of common stock and another $11.25 million in debt.

JetBlue isn't alone in raising capital. US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is planning to ask its shareholders to approve a measure that would double the amount of common shares it could issue to 400 million. The answer will come at the company's annual meeting on June 10, 2009.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CI, CCE, JBLU, LIZ, LLL

Analyst upgrades:

  • Oppenheimer upgraded FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) to Outperform from Perform on expectations the stock will outperform in the second half of 2009 due to easier comparisons and a "deeper and longer" restructuring cycle. The firm has a $62 target on shares.
  • Citigroup upgraded Cigna (NYSE:CI) to Hold from Sell to reflect reduced balance sheet risk following the company's capital raise and the potential for a PBM sale. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $13.
  • Goldman expects Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE) to benefit from favorable soda demand and lower commodity costs. The firm upgraded shares to Conviction Buy from Buy and has a $20 target on the stock.
  • Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill.
  • CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
  • Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CI, CCE, JBLU, LIZ, LLL

Short City: Washington Post, JetBlue, NJ Resources

Every market is a two-sided market, and while the typical investor makes money during bullish phases, experienced investors know how to make money during bearish phases, as well. In fact, many experienced and institutional traders make more money shorting stocks than by going long.

Short these shares if you can tolerate high-risk and are an experienced investor that does not remove Buy / Stop Losses.

Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO) The Post's education segment (Kaplan) has grown revenue nicely, but large-single digit (or worse) revenue declines in the flagship print metropolitan daily newspaper The Washington Post will continue to hurt results in F2009, and probably for longer. Buy / Stop Loss if you were to sell shares in this company: $460.

Continue reading Short City: Washington Post, JetBlue, NJ Resources

Earnings preview: Southwest Airlines to report Q1 in the red?

After American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) reported surprising first-quarter results today, eyes turn next to rival Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), which is scheduled to discuss its first-quarter results tomorrow, April 16, in a conference call at 11:30 AM ET with CEO Gary Kelly and CFO Laura Wright. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

For the quarter that saw Southwest declare its 130th consecutive quarterly dividend and named by Fortune magazine as one of the most admired companies in the world, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the Dallas-based airline to report a loss of $0.01 per share, compared to a profit of $0.06 cents per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenue for the quarter is expected to total $2.4 billion, 5.1% lower than a year ago. Southwest's earnings have beat estimates in the past five quarters, by as much as a nickel a share.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Southwest Airlines to report Q1 in the red?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMZN, LEAP, BBY, BANF, JBLU

Analyst upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to Overweight from Neutral as they believe the company's market share gains in the e-commerce sector will continue and that new product lines are adding diversification of revenue streams.
  • Wachovia upgraded Leap Wireless (NASDAQ:LEAP) to Outperform from Market Perform citing new market launches that should drive subscriber growth and reduced ARPU deterioration.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Pride International (NYSE:PDE) to Buy from Hold as they believe investors will view the stock as a pure deepwater play beginning in Q2.
  • PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ:PDLI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Altera (NYSE:ALTR) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded Southside Bancshares (NASDAQ:SBSI), Prosperity Bancshares (NASDAQ:PRSP), Cullen/Frost (NYSE:CFR) and BancFirst (NASDAQ:BANF) to Underperform from Market Perform on valuation and the weakening economic outlook in the Southwest.
  • Oppenheimer cut Varian Medial (NYSE:VAR) to Perform from Outperform as they believe U.S. hospitals could reduce capital spending budgets by 15%-25% in 2009.
  • Dress Barn (NASDAQ:DBRN) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust based on valuation and lack of near-term catalysts.
  • JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) was downgraded at Jesup & Lamont to Hold from Buy.
  • Credit Suisse cut Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) to Underperform from Neutral.
  • Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
Analyst initiations:
  • Merriman initiated Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) with a Neutral rating and finds the stock fairly valued at current levels.
  • Leerink sees a high likelihood that Momenta's (NASDAQ:MNTA) lead product candidates M-Enoxaparin and M-356 clear regulatory and legal hurdles. The firm has an Outperform rating and $16 fair value estimate on shares.
  • NCI (NASDAQ:NCIT) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Wachovia based on valuation.
  • Teradyne (NYSE:TER) was assumed at Barclays with an Overweight rating and $6 target.

Before the bell: Set for a lower start; SNE, GS, AMZN, AMGN, DOW, XRX ...

U.S. stock futures once again were lower this morning, albeit more moderately, pointing to another lower start and possibly another down day following Wednesday's declines. Investors concern over the economy remained unabated, especially in light of recent and future corporate profits. This morning, weekly initial jobless claims will be released an hour ahead of the opening bell, and the numbers are expected to show yet another increase. Meanwhile, investors will continue to eye oil prices, which rebounded from a 16-month low to above $67, and foreclosures, which grew by 71% in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2007.

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) drastically lowered profit and sales forecasts for the fiscal year Thursday, blaming weaker electronics sales and the stronger yen.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS)
is joining many other companies recently announcing layoffs as it also plans to cut about 3,260 jobs, representing about 10% of its total staff.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported a 48% climb in profit in the third quarter on strong sales of electronics, beating analyst estimates. But the company reduced its full-year profit outlook. AMZN shares traded down 14% in after-hours action.

Continue reading Before the bell: Set for a lower start; SNE, GS, AMZN, AMGN, DOW, XRX ...

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 02:00 PM

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