The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.

Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.

In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.

And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.

The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.

The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYE: AIG) reported a loss of $7.8 billion but raised its dividend.
• Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: BRL) missed earnings estimates and lowered its guidance.
• D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) posted a larger-than-expected Q2 loss on further write-downs.
• Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) posted its third straight quarterly loss on the continuing housing slump.
• Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) lower-than-estimated Q1 profit led shares to a 52-week low.
• Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) net income dropped 71% on a fall-off of M&A activity and a write-down.
• MGM Mirage Inc. NYSE: MGM) Q1 profits were dragged down by decreased consumer spending.
• Pilgrims Pride Corp. (NYSE: PPC) widened its Q2 loss due to the rising cost of feed.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) swung to a Q1 loss as revenue declined in all units.
• Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) net income and revenue fell in the first quarter.
• Scotts Miracle Gro Co. (NYSE: SMG) blamed a slow start to spring for its Q2 profit decline.
• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: TEVA) posted a Q1 loss due to a charge.
• THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) posted a loss for its fourth quarter and revenues flat for the year.
• Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) posted lower-than-expected Q4 results due to the U.S. economic slump.
• Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) Q2 loss widened and it suspended its quarterly dividend.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) posted stellar results on the popularity of Guitar Hero and Transformers.
• Airgas Inc. (NYSE: ARG) beat Q4 estimtates with record earnings and raised its guidance.
• Amkor Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: AMKR) beat Q1 expectations on strong demand for wireless.
• Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) reported strong Q1 results that beat Wall Street estimates.
• Barnes Group Inc. (NYSE: B) beat Q1 expectations on its "global reach" and raised its 2008 guidance.
• Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• DirecTV Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) posted better-than-expected results and announced share buybacks.
• Double-Take Software (NASDAQ: DBTK) beat Q1 expectations and raised its Q2 and 2008 guidance.
• Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) profits surged in the first quarter on record high gold prices.
• ICON plc (NASDAQ: ICLR) beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) easily beat Q1 estimates and raised its full-year guidance.
• Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) reported a surge in Q1 profits that beat Wall Street estimates.
• Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) beat Q1 expectations and lifted its Q2 and 2008 forecasts.
• Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) beat Q4 expectations and raised its Q1 outlook.
• Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG) Q1 profits more than doubled due to soaring oil prices.
• Unilever (NYSE: UL) posted strong results, with revenues beating estimates for the first time in six years.
• UTStarcom Inc. (NASDAQ: UTSI) released a preliminary guidance well above expectations.
• Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) posted better-than-expected results on success of its theme parks.

What's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.

Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).

Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.

Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.

In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) posted record third-quarter earnings and revenue.
• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) posted better-than-estimated first-quarter results and raised its outlook.
• CKE Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: CKR) posted third-quarter results that missed estimates.
• ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) third-quarter profit surged as strong sales offset commodity prices.
• Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI) beat third-quarter expectations and offered guidance.
• FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE: FDS) second-quarter results beat estimates and it raised its outlook.
• Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) remained upbeat despite a fourth-quarter loss.
• Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES) record fourth-quarter results beat Wall Street expectations.
• Inter Parfums Inc. (NASDAQ: IPAR) posted better-than-estimated fourth-quarter results and raised its outlook.
• Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) beat second-quarter expectations but lowered its guidance.
• JC Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) lowered its first-quarter outlook on weaker-than-expected sales.
• KB Home (NYSE: KBH) swung to a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss on write-downs.
• Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) posted a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss.
• Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) raised its second-quarter and full-year guidance.
• Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) merely met earnings expectations, sending shares lower.
• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) posted better-than-estimated fourth-quarter results and raised its outlook.
• Usana Health Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: USNA) posted lower-than-expected first-quarter results.
• Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) posted solid second-quarter results, including same-store sales growth.

Also, auction-rate securities issues may hurt some tech company results. Analysts keep cutting earings estimates for the big banks, but some are eyeing Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) earnings prospects as it expands in China, as well as Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) on soaring demand for commodities.

Upcoming results to watch for include Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Quiksilver, Omniture and Crown Holdings were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• B. Riley upgraded shares of Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and to reflect the EPS catalyst and debt reduction associated with divesting Rossignol.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) to Outperform from Market Perform following the recent pullback, as they believe the company is in its best competitive position ever, which should drive increasing win rates and help restore pricing power.
  
• Banc of America upgraded shares of Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's international exposure and believes metal packaging companies should be better able to manage input inflation.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS raised AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Stephens raised its rating on Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
  
• Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the number of things that went wrong in one day is astounding, and is led by the woes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

There aren't many days like yesterday. Or let's hope there won't be. Let me refresh all of the things that went wrong so we have the context of how treacherous this market really is.

1. The Treasury and the President saw fit not to endorse the "implicit" guarantee for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) paper. For those of us who have bought and sold this paper for most of our lives, this was the signal that almost everything could be worthless. Their refusal to acknowledge the problems was so in the Hoover playbook that it was shameful.

2. We always figured that you should be able to lever up if you are in the bond market, with nine to one being an acceptable level for rock solid collateral like Fannie Mae mortgage paper, which was presumed to pay off at par with the only question being when. Now, because the question is no longer "when," but "if" that level of leverage is going to be obliterated. Maybe three or four times is all we will get. There have to be trillions of dollars at risk in loans right now because of that loss of implicit guarantees.

J.C. Penney Company, Inc (NYSE: JCP) stock is falling sharply today after the retailer posted a 6.7% decrease in February same-store sales. Analysts had been expecting a 1.9% fall. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on JCP.

After hitting a one-year high of $84.70 in April, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.27 in January. This morning, JCP opened at $46.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.13 and a high of $46.66. As of 12:20, JCP is trading at $43.24, down $4.87 (-10.1%). The chart for JCP looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in two weeks as long as JCP is below $50 at March expiration. JC Penney would have to rise by more than 16% before we would start to lose money.

JCP hasn't been above $50 by more than a few cents since November and has shown resistance around $49.50 recently. This trade could be risky if consumer spending shows gains in the next two weeks, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance JCP might find around $50, where it has topped out twice in the past month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JCP.

You know the old adage for success in the stock market -- buy low and sell high. Well unfortunately too many Americans today are doing the exact opposite as they seek coverage from a very volatile stock market. They bought when this market was near the top and are now selling in panic.

I prefer to watch two men who clearly know how to buy low and sell high -- Warren Buffett (also known as the "Oracle of Omaha" and Bill Miller, a very successful fund manager at Legg Mason, who is known for his 15-year winning streak against the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.

So are they selling or buying? Both are buying and buying big. According to Sunday's Washington Post, Buffett upped his stake in Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). He also took a new stake in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK). Buffett disclosed that he owns 132 million shares in Kraft, which means he owns 8.6% in the maker of Ritz crackers, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Maxwell House coffee.

Struggling retailer J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) has reportedly attracted the interest of renowned bottom-feeder (I mean that as a compliment!) Carl Icahn.

According (subscription required) to the Wall Street Journal, "While the exact size of the stake in the 105-year-old retailer is unclear, one person said it is among Mr. Icahn's top five holdings, which could mean it runs into the hundreds of millions of dollars."

It's unknown whether Icahn will agitate for change at the company -- While he's made his name as a "raider" and activist investor, Icahn frequently buys and holds stocks simply because he thinks they're undervalued.

Earlier this week, Mr. Icahn said that retail stocks were "very cheap" but also sounded a cautious note, saying that he was not bullish on the economy and that retail stocks may well go lower before they go up again. But Icahn has never claimed to be a market timer: he buys stuff when he thinks it's a compelling value, and isn't easily shaken by short-term fluctuations.

Shares of J.C. Penney are up more than 1.5% today.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• With a possible coming recession, J.C. Penney Company Inc (NYSE: JCP) CEO Myron "Mike" Ullman is expected to today announce plans to merge the buying and marketing operations for store and online sales and cut up to 200 jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that the warning from UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) that its write downs for 2007 would be $4B higher than forecast is an indicator that other Wall Street banks are still vulnerable to the subprime crisis; Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) may be the most vulnerable to the next wave of write downs.

WEB SITES:

• Merck & Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) and Schering-Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP) perform quite differently, despite jointly marketing Vytorin, Barron's reported. while Merck offers a golden opportunity for bargain hunters, Schering's prospects remain less certain with the company relying on Vytorin for more than one-third of its pretax profits, according to estimates from Lehman Brothers.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sony, FiberTower and Cardiome Pharma were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman lowered its rating on Sony (NYSE: SNE) to Neutral from Buy, citing the yen strength and the economic slowdown.
• Merriman downgraded shares of FiberTower (NASDAQ: FTWR) to Neutral from Buy following the CEO resignation due to added uncertainty. They do not anticipate the valuation to improve from current levels until a permanent CEO is named.
• Cardiome Pharma (NASDAQ: CRME) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill following the FDA's decision to delay the Kynapid drug.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• American Express (NYSE: AXP) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
• JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper.
• Merrill added Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to its Bank Least Preferred List.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: National Semi, Cintas and J.C. Penney were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JMP Securities upgraded National Semi (NYSE:NSM) to Outperform from Market Perform citing strong Q2 results, as they expect growth to continue driven by continued success in high-end analog and power management products.
  
• Baird raised its rating on Cintas (NASDAQ:CTAS) to Outperform from Market Perform based on analysis that indicates the cyclical inflection point in the sector's stocks is near with U.S. employment growth is likely to bottom within 6-12 months and expectations that the Project One Team initiative is poised to surprise in early 2008.
  
• Lehman upgraded shares of J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) to Overweight from Equal Weight, as they believe the company is well-positioned to gain market share in the current environment.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  
• Goldman raised CA, Inc (CA) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Jefferies upgraded SunPower (SPWR) to Buy from Hold.

JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) is trading off almost 4% after cutting its holiday sales outlook.

InfoSpace (NASDAQ: INSP) is up 7% after announcing a special dividend.

Telestone Technologies (NASDAQ: TSTC) is trading up 26% on strong earnings.

Advanced Life Sciences (NASDAQ: ADLS) is up on news of a successful trial of one of its drugs.

Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) is down 10% on weak earnings.

NovaStar Financial (NYSE: NFI) is down 39% on poor earnings and the possibility that its shares could be de-listed.

Stocks trading in the pre-market may open at different prices in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The broadline retail sector, Coca-Cola Enterprises, PepsiCo, Pepsi Bottling and Discovery Holdings were today's noteworthy initiations:

• BMO Capital believes the broadline retail sector will be pressured until valuations reflect a potential recession in 2008, or the housing market begins to stabilize. The firm initiated the sector with an Underperform rating, and started shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) with Outperform ratings and a $52 target and $68 target, Macy's (NYSE: M) with a Market Perform rating and $35 target, and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) with an Underperform rating and $38 target.
  
• Bear Stearns started shares of Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) and Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) with Peer Perform ratings on valuation.
  
• Wachovia initiated Discovery Holding (NASDAQ: DISCA) with a Market Perform rating on valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating at CIBC.
  
• UBS resumed coverage of Capital Trust (NYSE: CT) and CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) with Neutral ratings and targets of $35 and $18, respectively.