jim stack posts
FeedPosted Oct 28th 2009 1:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Recession
"We're always ready to shift to an individual stock when we see an attractive investment opportunity like Equifax (NYSE: EFX)," says money manager and advisor Jim Stack, who incidentally, accurately called both the 2008 market top and the March bottom.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he explains, "The stock is attractively valued based on revenue, cash flow, and earnings power of the company." Here's his review of the credit reporting agency.
"Equifax is in the business of supplying clients with the power of information and is most commonly known as a credit reporting agency. The 'credit score' your banker looks at when you apply for a loan is derived from information supplied by Equifax and its competitors.
Continue reading Equifax (EFX): A good credit
Posted Sep 30th 2009 2:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, PepsiCo (PEP), Newsletters, Agriculture, Stocks to Buy
"There's a misconception out there about PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP); all too often, it's viewed as a stodgy soft drink company, fully reliant on its namesake soda line," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he suggests, "In reality, PepsiCo owns some of the most sought after brands in the world, including Gatorade, Tropicana, Frito-Lay and Doritos." Here's his review of the company and its outlook.
"PepsiCo does business in more than 200 countries worldwide, including key emerging market economies like China and India and, perhaps most important of all, it's a growth company with analysts expecting long-term future earnings growth of 10-12% per year.
Continue reading PepsiCo (PEP): An 'under-rated' growth company
Posted Jul 24th 2009 11:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Agriculture, Stocks to Buy
"Any company that can consistently create revenue out of air is worth a look," says Jim Stack, referring to Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD).
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, the advisor and money manager explains, "We especially like a company that can create over $10 billion a year in sales ... from air (actually industrial gases)." Here, he explains the reasons he rates the shares a 'buy' in his model portfolio.
"For APD, much of that 'air' revenue comes from the sale of tonnage gases. Tonnage gas delivery involves the on-site or pipeline delivery of hydrogen and other chemicals to oil refineries.
Continue reading Air Products (APD): More than hot air
Posted Jul 2nd 2009 11:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Newsletters, NIKE, Inc'B' (NKE), DJIA, Stocks to Buy, Recession
"The conditions are in place for a 'Best Buy' opportunity," says Jim Stack, whose buy signal should receive special attention give the accuracy of his sells signals which side-stepped the bear market.
In addition, the money manager and editor of Investech Market Analyst is beginning to increase his equity positions, such as Nike (NYSE: NKE). He states, "With a portfolio of iconic brands, an identified growth strategy, recognized innovation, and sound financial footing, Nike fits the bill of being a great company."
"Very rarely do we have all these conditions in place – that's only occurred five times in the last 45 years. Historically, this means we should give the growing evidence of a new bull market every benefit of doubt.
Continue reading Step up to Nike (NKE): A 'great company'
Posted May 28th 2009 11:00AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, United Technologies (UTX), Stocks to Buy
"Being a great company is just half of the equation; buying a great company at a great price is the key to successful investing," says Jim Stack, a money manager noted for having accurately forecast the market's troubles over the past year.
In InvesTech Market Analyst, he looks to one stock that meets this criteria. He states, "An enviable line-up of dominant brands, outstanding profitability, financial strength, and attractive valuation make United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) a compelling buy."
"For most people, UTX is a behind-the-scenes powerhouse, providing many of the everyday industrial components we take for granted, but rarely think about.
Continue reading United Technologies (UTX): A 'compelling' buy
Posted May 5th 2009 1:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
"Our confidence in this market is growing... albeit slowly; the fundamental blocks are already in place for a market bottom, and the technical blocks seem to be following," says Jim Stack, well known for having accurately forecast the market. housing and economic downturn.
In InvesTech Market Analyst, he suggests, "We are now stepping up our allocation. The newest addition to our Model Portfolio is VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC)."
"VF Corporation is the world's largest publicly held apparel manufacturer and distributor. It owns an incredibly diverse line of brands; including such well known names as Wrangler, Lee, North Face, Vans, and Nautica.
Continue reading VF Corp. (VFC): Dressed for success
Posted Feb 11th 2009 10:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Agriculture, Stocks to Buy, Green Stocks, Recession
"We are selectively taking advantage of deep values such as Waste Management (NTSE: WMI), which is selling at a compelling valuation," says Jim Stack, a safety-first money manager.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst he adds, "Waste Management displays the characteristics we search for in new investments including a distinct competitive advantage and solid financials.
"It is a giant in its industry; Waste Management is the largest solid waste management company in North America. Founded in 1894, it serves nearly 20 million customers.
"With the nation's largest network of landfills, Waste Management has significant pricing power and can charge fees to competitive waste haulers who don't own, or have access to, their own landfills.
Continue reading Waste Management (WMI): 'Deep value' in waste
Posted Nov 10th 2008 10:10AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Newsletters, Technical Analysis, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession, Financial Crisis
Money manager and advisor Jim Stack, who accurately sidestepped the bear market over the past year, is now turning more optimistic. Here's the latest from his InvesTech Market Analyst.
"As a bear market unfolds, investor emotions travel down a slippery slope of anxiety, fear and panic. And it is just this kind of emotional upheaval that creates some of the extremes that we are seeing now.
"Media headlines containing the word 'depression' and images like this are appearing more this year than in any year since the 1930s.
"Stock market volatility, as measured by the number of 1% daily closing moves in the S&P 500] Index, is near a record high. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 12-month lows is higher than any previous record level during the past 50 years.
"Yet, bear markets bottoms occur right in the midst of fear and panic – at the point of maximum gloom. And for consumers, it's hard to get much gloomier: In addition, more bear markets have ended in October than in any other month.
Continue reading Are market extremes calling a bottom?
Posted Oct 29th 2008 2:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis
Written before yesterday's sharp rise, stock market historian and advisor Jim Stack had forecast an "imminent bottom" for the market. A long-term timer, he is not looking for quick pops and drops; rather, the "safety-first" money manager focuses on slowing positioning his portfolio for long-term, secular trends.
Indeed, in his InvesTech Market Analyst he was among the few to accurately forecast the current crisis; over the prior year and a half, he predicated both the bust of the housing bubble and the derivatives-based meltdown that would result.
After maintaining a defensive, cash-heavy portfolio during the market's downturn, he is now becoming more optimistic, noting, "All of our bearish extremes readings that precede the best stock buy opportunities are now in place."
Stack explains, "How can we put this bear market in historical perspective? No doubt about it, this bear market is a whopper – both in size and severity.
"With a 42.5% loss in the S&P 500 Index, it is rapidly closing in on the big bear markets of 1973-74 and 2000-02. In fact, no bear market in the past 70 years has declined over 50%.
"In severity, this bear has unfolded much faster than past bear markets, wiping out $6.7 trillion in stock values in barely 12 months – equivalent to over 90% of the loss in the 2000-02 bear market in two-fifths of the time
"In measuring impact on investors' portfolios, this bear has 'repossessed' more than 84% of the prior 5-year bull market gains! Both the DJIA and S&P 500 Index are back to price levels seen over 10 years ago in 1998.
"Why has the stock market decline turned so precipitous in the last few weeks? In bigger bear markets, investors always end up throwing out the baby with the bath water.
Continue reading Jim Stack: Market historian calls 'imminent' bottom
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 10:35AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW), Stocks to Buy
"We continue to apply our value-oriented principles in selecting new growth stocks as we look for companies with superior profitability and strong balance sheets," says Jim Stack.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he and analyst Bruce Morison explain, "Our latest featured investment, Charles Schwab Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHW), is a prime example and stands out as a conservative way to access to opportunities in the battered financial group."
"We are increasing our equity allocation in stocks that should show strong relative performance in a market upturn.
"We continue, however, to be very selective in terms of quality, as well as downside risk. Over the past 20 years, brokerage/asset management firms have produced more than twice the return of the market following a bear market.
"The Charles Schwab brand is one of the most well-known and trusted names in the financial services industry. Its strategy is to be competitively priced, but more importantly to be positioned as the gold standard in client service and integrity.
Continue reading Charles Schwab (SCHW): Value play in 'battered' financials
Posted Jul 29th 2008 10:51AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology
Money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack, well-known for his safety-first strategy, recently added Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to his model portfolio, noting, "We had wanted to increase our allocation to technology which has typically been a leading sector in new bull markets."
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he explains, "This stock exhibits all the qualities we look for in a new purchase and is currently selling at a very attractive valuation."
"From its founding in 1975, Microsoft has become the world's largest software company with offices in over 100 countries. Its Windows operating system –which runs on 90% of all PCs currently in use – and for the Windows Office applications utilized by over 400 million users.
"This firm is extremely profitable with company-wide operating margins in excess of 40%. The Windows operating system and Office productivity suite have operating margins averaging closer to 70%.
"The company is completely debt free and generates over $1 billion in free cash flow each month. Management has done an excellent job of utilizing shareholder capital with a return on equity of over 40% compared to an average of 15% for S&P 500 companies.
Continue reading Microsoft (MSFT): A 'safety-first' tech play
Posted May 12th 2008 12:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession

"The Presidential Election cycle is one Wall Street truism that has historically proven to have merit for investors," explains money manager, advisor and market historian
Jim Stack.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, the advisor reviews the basics of this cycle, its historical merit, and what the Presidential cycle portends for the market's action between now and Election Day.
"Since we are in the midst of an election year, this cycle warrants review. During the 4-year Presidential Election cycle there is a characteristic variation in annual stock market returns that is evident in historical data and actually makes sense when one thinks about it.
"Basically, it boils down to just 'good politics.' Politicians worth their salt understand the goal: get any
bad economic news over early during your term and have the economy back on track and humming along
by Election Day.
"Consequently, the worst stock market performance typically occurs in the first two years after a Presidential Election. The third year, as politicians begin gearing up for re-election, is usually the
best year on Wall Street by a wide margin, and the only year where the average gain in the S&P 500 tops
10%.
Continue reading The Presidential election cycle: A market history
Posted Mar 21st 2008 1:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Green Stocks
Jim Stack is well known for his "safety-first" approach to money management, focusing on a balance between risk and reward. In his InvesTech market Analyst, he notes, "We now see a window of opportunity in Waters (NYSE: WAT).
Here, Bruce Morison, consultant for Stack Financial Management, explains, "In a market overreaction to a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, an opportunity has been created to invest in this high-quality company at an attractive valuation level.
"The stock dropped 20% when the company reported earnings that were $0.08 shy of the $1.06 estimate that Wall Street was forecasting. The shortfall was primarily a result of a higher-than-expected tax rate for 2007 and weaker sales in Japan.
"The Japan results reflected a change in government regulations for water testing. Our concern over this event is limited given that Japan accounts for less than 10% of the Waters' sales and is not a key growth market for the firm.
"A quick recap of the company ... Waters Corporation is a medium sized company based in Milford, Massachusetts which designs, manufactures, and services high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and mass spectrometry (MS) instrument systems.
Continue reading Waters (WAT): An 'environmental' investment
Posted Feb 5th 2008 9:31AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Newsletters, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing, Recession
Market historian, money manager and newsletter editor, Jim Stack avoids short-term forecasting but has an uncanny record of being properly positioned for major market turns (gaining 81% since 12/99 versus a gain of 13.9% for the S&P over the same period).
Here, the editor of InvesTech Market Analyst assesses the odds for a bear market and/or a recession, looking at various metrics from housing and consumer confidence to interest rates and the Presidential cycle.
"Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has fallen over 24 points in just 4 months – a precipitous decline matched only by past recessions, or in the first year coming out of recession. Housing and automobile sales are clearly in a recession, but other sectors of the economy still seem very resilient .
"Unemployment is now running at 5%, up 0.6% pts. from a 5-year low of 4.4% early last year. It doesn't take an economics major to look back on 60 years of unemployment history and recognize this is not good news for the U.S. economy.
"We have review all periods when the Unemployment Rate has risen 0.6% pts. from a 2-year low. In 6 out of 9 instances, the economy was already in recession. In the remaining 3, a recession wasn't far off. Are these the kind of odds you want to bet against, as an investor?
Continue reading Bear markets and recessions: An historical perspective
Posted Dec 24th 2007 9:15AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Walgreen Co (WAG), Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"If investors are looking for value in this market, it's hard to pass up the nation's largest drugstore chain -- Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), my favorite more speculative idea for 2008," says Jim Stack, money manager and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst.
"Over the past 10 years, Walgreen's revenue and earnings-per-share have grown steadily at an average annual rate of 15% and 16%, respectively. Moreover, the company has competitive advantages that should help it maintain this enviable growth record.
"In particular the firm is noted for its customer-oriented philosophy and real estate acumen. It is adept at locating freestanding stores on prime corners, with each site required to meet multiple criteria based on traffic flow, demographics and other factors.
"In addition, Walgreen is innovative. The firm pioneered the concepts of a drive-thru pharmacy and keeping selected stores open 24 hours. It was also the first drugstore chain to offer prescription drugs in multiple languages.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Innovation and quality at Walgreen Co. (WAG)
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