Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.
Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:
Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I've taken a leg in the Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QLD). The market has popped 2% off lows, the question is will it pop the full 7%?
I'm seeing a few positive divergences and the percentage of stocks below the 50 day moving average is well below the 2002 levels. I haven't looked at the percentage of stocks below the 200 day, but I'm sure the reading should be equally distressed.
I know people are pricing in earnings per share Armageddon in tech land -- so the question is, what happens to many of these stocks if it's really just sort of "punk" and not a total cataclysmic drop in revenue guidance.
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 update as they believe the quarter marks a turning point.
Merill raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) and Total SA (NYSE: TOT) to Neutral from Underperform.
DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was lifted to Hold from Sell at Soleil.
Friedman Billings upgraded Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's deposits are showing stability despite the massive sell-off.
Kaufman Bros. raised Longtop Financial (NYSE: LFT) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe Chinese software service stocks now reflect the investment risks.
Lear (NYSE: LEA) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
Analyst downgrades:
Morgan Stanley downgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing checks that indicate deteriorating trends are worst than expected.
Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) and Pediatrix Medical (NYSE: PDX) were downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
Merrill cut StatoilHydro (NYSE: STO) to Underperform from Neutral.
HSBC (NYSE: HBC) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette.
CIBC initiated Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) with a Sector Performer rating based on what they see as the company's limited growth and margin prospects.
Needham initiated Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Hold rating, citing valuation.
Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) was initiated with a Hold by Needham, which would like to see if the company's turnaround is sustainable before becoming more constructive on the shares.
If you were looking for another hard day of profit taking on a summer Friday, the markets escaped the hangman. A barely positive durable goods of big ticket items was enough to send the pessimists to the showers and gave the bulls a little more ammo. Throw in an oil ticker showing a drop of more than $2.00 to almost $123.00 per barrel and that's all that was needed. Look at bond yields and you'll see we gave back almost all of yesterday's move.
Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) tripled earnings posted EPS of $0.78 vs. $0.64 estimates. The stock was up more than 3% in pre-open but was up almost 9% at $55.45 in the final minutes of the day.
Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) led the garbage stocks after a very ugly earnings warning last night. It now sees sales for all of 2008 modestly lower than 2007 and is now only targeting a break-even result for 2008. Retailers were noted as keeping inventory re-orders at low levels, which is hard to blame them considering the ugly shoe fad has already started its workdown. Shares were down 44% at $4.99 after shares had already sold of more than 80% from 52-week highs.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Ensco International (NYSE: ESV) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they find the company's long-term EPS growth and potential upside from the GOM/Mexico jack-up market compelling.
Friedman Billings upgraded Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) to Outperform from Market Perform following the better-than-expected Q2 report. The firm raised Juniper's target to $29 from $27.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness. Southwestern's target was raised to $43 from $40.
Merrill also upgraded Delta (NYSE: DAL) to Buy from Neutral.
Analyst downgrades:
Baird downgraded Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) to Neutral from Outperform following the company's weak Q2 report and guidance.
Merriman cut Nautilus Group (NYSE: NLS) to Sell from Neutral to reflect the company's dependence on the consumer home fitness market at a time when consumer spending trends are weakening. The firm believes shares are overvalued and could potentially decline to the $4.00-$4.50 level.
E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
HSBC lowered Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI) to Neutral from Overweight.
U.S. stock futures were lower Friday morning, a day after a selloff triggered by housing data. Today investors are bracing for more housing data at 10:00 a.m. EDT after already hearing that foreclosures soared 121% during the second quarter. Other point of interest will be durable goods data reported an hour before the opening bell. Meanwhile, oil continued the steady climb that started Thursday as the dollar weakens, trading above $126 a barrel. It's Friday, and no many earnings reports are due.
While there aren't many earnings reports today, there are a few including Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) among others.
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) shares are tanking over 44% to $5 after after it cut its earnings outlook significantly on softer demand for its plastic shoes. With all those knockoffs around, is it any wonder? Robert W. Baird downgraded Crocs from Outperform to Neutral, slashing the target price from $21 to $5.
Meanwhile, Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) surged 12% in premarket trading after the company not only beat estimates when reporting quarterly results Thursday, but also increased its sales forecast for the third-quarter much higher than analyst estimates. Friedman Billings and Citigroup both upgraded Juniper to Outperform and Buy respectively.
In deal news, Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) shareholders on Thursday approved a $17.9 billion takeover by private equity funds Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital. This ends the 20-month long effort.
Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) is recently up 15 cents to $23.04 in pre-open trading.
JNPR named Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) veteran Kevin Johnson CEO. JNPR is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close tonight. RBC Capital Markets has a $30 price target on JNPR.
JNPR August option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Perhaps no one should be surprised that the head of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s internet unit left the company. Its bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) did not exactly work out well. Redmond will probably not have a big online empire to run without the buyout of the portal company.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Kevin Johnson, 47 years old, will take a job as chief executive of Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR), a Silicon Valley maker of networking hardware." The new position sounds like a pretty large step down.
As part of the effect of the departure, Microsoft will separate its Windows group from its online operation.
At this point, who would want to run the Microsoft internet division? It now stands as a distant third in the search business. It competes with Yahoo! and AOL in the portal segment. Display advertising growth rates are slowing.
Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer may say otherwise, but his company has lost the online war. There is nothing left that he can do about that. Spending billions of dollars has yet to gain his company any ground. No executive with a brain is going to want the chance to run a fading business.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Shanda Interactive, Evergreen Solar, SunPower and Marriott were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ:SNDA) to Hold from Buy following the company's lower-than-expected guidance as they see a lack of positive catalysts.
Merrill downgraded Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Sell from Neutral citing a potential reduction in German tariffs.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Marriott (NYSE:MAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing economic pressures on business travel.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Vivus (NASDAQ:VVUS) was downgraded at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
UBS lowered Juniper(NASDAQ:JNPR) to Neutral from Buy.
Cemex (NYSE:CX) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
After hitting a one-year low of $19.86 last April, the stock hit a one-year high of $37.95 in October. This morning, JNPR opened at $24.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.69 and a high of $24.39. As of 12:40, JNPR is trading at $24.39, up 1 cent (0.04%). The chart for JNPR looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $31 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.1% return in 3 and a half months as long as JNPR is below $31 at July expiration. Juniper would have to rise by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
JNPR hasn't been above $31 since January and has shown resistance around $26 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/24) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance JNPR might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $31.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JNPR.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq and Cognicase were today's noteworthy initiations:
Friedman Billings believes Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is well-positioned to take advantage of "Business 2.0" applications and to gain share in a slower economic environment. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $31 target.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) were assumed with a Neutral rating and $72 target and $44 target, respectively, at UBS. The firm cited increasing competition and moderating volumes.
Deutsche Bank believes Cognicase (COGI) is one of the few carriers offering high-capacity commercial Internet access to enterprise customers at a discount to nearly all of its competitors. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $23 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
China Housing (OTCBB: CHLN) was initiated at Merriman with a Buy rating.
Goldman started Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Market Perform rating and $27 target.
Suntrust initiated hhgregg (NYSE: HGG) with a Buy rating and $16 target.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) shares are trading higher today after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform as noted by our own Eric Buscemi. We always think what kind of trade might make sense in light of the news. If you think that the company's stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JNPR.
After hitting a one-year low of $17.21 in March, the stock hit a one-year high of $37.95 in October. JNPR opened this morning at $26.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.54 and a high of $27.36. As of 11:20, JNPR is trading at $27.16, up 97 cents (3.7%). The chart for JNPR looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just two months as long as JNPR is above $22.50 at April expiration. Juniper would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.
JNPR hasn't been below $22.50 since last May and has shown support around $25 recently. This trade could be risky if JNPR continues its recent downward slide, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock has found just below $25 over the past month. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JNPR.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genentech, ESS Technology and SemGroup Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Rodman & Renshaw upgraded Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Outperform from Market Perform citing the FDA's approval of Avastin in mBC.
Jefferies raised ESS Technology (NASDAQ: ESST) to Hold from Underperform to reflect the offer from Imperium Partners.
Citigroup upgraded shares of SemGroup Energy (NASDAQ: SGLP) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the significant accretion expected from the partnership's recent asphalt terminal acquisition is not priced into the stock.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
RBC Capital upgraded Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Goldman raised its rating on BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) to Neutral from Sell.
Technology shares have been battered over the last three months, but I expect the group will lead the broader market to new highs later in the year. While everyone is worried about the economy, the earnings numbers and forecasts that tech companies are providing should make investors very bullish for '08.
The likes of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) all beat the Street's estimates and raised guidance. What makes this even more interesting is that each company operates in different technology sectors, so it appears that corporate spending is still strong, and that should have a big impact on earnings going forward.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 1/25/08