Analyst upgrades:

• Collins Stewart upgraded General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) to Buy from Hold as it finds the valuation compelling at current levels and sees potential upside from a better economy and better-than-expected defense budgets.
• SunTrust views the sell-off in shares of Cabot Oil (NYSE: COG) as a buying opportunity and expects the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection order to be resolved quickly. The firm upgraded Cabot to Buy from Neutral.
• Barclays upgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on expectations for improved carrier demand, continued U.S. momentum, and an improved Europe.
• Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
• Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL) was upgraded to Gradually Accumulate from Hold at Soleil.
• Grupo Televisa (NYSE: TV) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Outperform from Market Perform due to valuation and the company's capital position. The firm has an $8 target price on the stock.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded its view of the semiconductor sector and upgraded Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Buy from Neutral, LSI Corp. (NYSE: LSI) to Buy from Underperform, and Maxim (NASDAQ: MXIM) and National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM) to Neutral from Underperform. The firm now sees 2010 revenue growth of 21% vs. its prior estimate of 14% due to improving electric demand and lean inventories.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded Vital Images (NASDAQ: VTAL) to Overweight from Market Weight based on compelling valuation and potential upside from its new ViTAL Enterprise product offering.
• Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• Nationwide Health (NYSE: NHP) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

Analyst upgrades:

• Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's capital buffer could keep outrunning credit losses.
  
• Friedman Billings also upgraded Office Max (NYSE: OMX) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm believes the risk of recourse to Office Max from the Timber Notes formerly backed by Lehman is low and that any litigation by noteholders will have a low level of success.
  
• Citigroup upgraded CF Industries (NYSE: CF) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness but lowered their target to $113 from $128.
• Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Granite Construction (NYSE: GVA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  

Analyst downgrades:

Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ - option chain) shares are dropping today after the company got a slate of bad news. First, S&P downgraded the stock today and cut its price target by 47%. Also, September retail sales came in way lower than expected, which is driving retail stocks lower today. Lastly, competitor Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) lowered its EPS guidance and is off by more than 20% today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LIZ.

This morning, LIZ opened at $11.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $9.99 and a high of $11.15. As of 12:40, LIZ is trading at $10.59, down $1.17 (-10.0%). The chart for LIZ looks bearish and S&P gives LIZ a 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $15 range.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with gas coming down further, the coming rally could be broad and fierce.

The great hurricane fakeout leaves us with oil much lower than it began, having launched itself from $112. Now that the $110 level's been breached and natural gas has gone as low as $7.50, we can begin to put together a holiday scenario that might -- just might -- explain the incredible run in retail that's been going on.

The presumption in retail, if you use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) as retail, was that once the stimulus wore off, presumably last month, the stocks would get hammered. On Aug. 7, Wal-Mart as much as told you that, and the stock dropped to $57 from $60.90.

Ever since then, it has been creeping up. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) dropped a point from that warning, going from $45 to $44. It is now at $49. Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) went from $19.80 to $18.90 before bouncing to $20.82. Jones (NYSE: JNY) (Cramer's Take) went from $17.40 to $17.20 before roaring to $19.80. Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) (Cramer's Take), because of a great quarter, didn't even get hurt, rallying from $67 to $75.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: ComScore, Duke Realty, Nordstrom and Sun Healthcare were among today's noteworthy upgrades:

• ComScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer to reflect the strong Q1 report and strong customer additions.
  
• Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia upgraded based on valuation.
  
• Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• Sun Healthcare (NASDAQ: SUNH) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings based on valuation and notes the Medicare rate cuts will be as drastic as feared.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• MedAssets (NASDAQ: MDAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper, which thinks the company's acquisition of Accuro will strengthen its revenue cycle management offering, and the firm believes the tight credit markets make the company's MedAssets a compelling product in the short-term. In addition, Piper notes that the company has recently had success with large hospital systems.
  
• Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill citing sales expectations for the l.e.i. brand at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and margin improvements from leaner inventories.
  
• Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies based on valuation and expectations for better bookings.

Here are some highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) first-quarter profits fell due to market conditions.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) lowered its earnings forecast on declining sales.
• Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) posted unexciting second-quarter results, but shares rose anyway.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) posted solid results but fell short of expecations.
• Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) beat expectations and annouced it first dividend in a decade.
• Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) fourth-quarter results were dragged down by the sale of restaurants.
• General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) posted a record loss and made a buyout offer to union employees.
• Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) post better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on popularity of the Transformers.
• Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) narrowed its loss in the fourth quarter as restructuring continued.
• Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) missed earnings estimates despite strong revenue growth.
• Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) profit fell on losses from discontinued operations.
• Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) beat estimates as profits rose 75%.
• PolyOne Corp. (NYSE: POL) beat expectations and raised its guidance.
• Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE: SGP) beat expectations, excluding a charge for acquistion costs.
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) posted a big loss on write-downs due to the subprime crisis.
• VNUS Medical Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: VNUS) beat expectations on strength overseas.
• World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE) beat expectations despite weakness in its movie business.

Also, Jim Cramer defends his interest in GM after its record loss.

Upcoming results to watch for include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Safeway (NYSE: SWY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Really, Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) could not have picked a better day to report fourth quarter earnings if it tried. When the government reports surprisingly strong retail sales for January, with clothes in particular up 1.4% during the month, that fact can only help a clothing retailer.

Jones, still executing its restructuring plan, said its fourth-quarter net loss narrowed to $89.8 million, or $1.06 per share, from $269.5 million, or $2.51 per share, last year. Without the gain on the sale of its high-end department-store chain, Barneys New York, and other costs, net income was nine cents per share, beating the seven cents per share analysts had been expecting.

Jones, which exited several lines during the quarter and along with the rest of the market suffered from weak holiday shopping season, posted a 17% decline in revenue to $838.5 million from $1.01 billion last year. Analysts expected revenue of $874.8 million. To get a better feel for the retailer's performance during the quarter, same-store sales fell 4.8%.

Lots more quarterly reports rolled out this past week, and here are some highlights of earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reported more losses and more job cuts.
• Alvarion Ltd.'s (NASDAQ: ALVR) record quarter fuels speculation of a Cisco (NYSE: CSCO) buyout.
• Avon Products Inc.'s (NYSE: AVP) profit rose 61%, buoyed by strength in emerging markets.
• Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) fell short of expectations due to tighter margins.
• CIGNA Corp. (NYSE: CI) had a solid quarter but warned about 2008 earnings.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) blamed profit loss on materals costs, and announced acquistion of Burt's Bees.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) beat estimates by a penny and had strong sales overseas.
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) beat earnings estimates and revised its full-year forecast.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) announced it would restate revenues, ahead of its November quarterly report.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) missed expectations, also due to tighter margins.
• Given Imaging Ltd. (NASDAQ: GIVN) cited FDA approval delays for disappointing results.
• Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTZ) posted record revenues and appointed a new CFO.
• Humana Inc.'s (NYSE: HUM) positive surprise lifted the share price to a new all-time high.

Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) shares are rising today after the company's Q3 earnings release. Earnings skyrocketed to $3.97 per share, up from $0.56 in the year-ago period, thanks to a hefty income tax benefit and other one-time gains. Revenues fell 5% but still exceeded analysts' expectations. Excluding one-time items, the company's adjusted EPS was $0.51, ahead of analysts' expectations of $0.34. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JNY.

After hitting a one-year high of $35.54 in January, the stock fell to a 52-week low of $16.73 in August. JNY opened this morning at $22.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.70 and a high of $23.08. As of 10:35, JNY is trading at $20.07, up $0.37 (1.9%). The chart for JNY looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 3 months as long as JNY is above $17.50 at January expiration. Jones would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Radian Group (RDN), Heelys (HLYS), Sonus Networks (SONS), Leap Wireless (LEAP) and MetroPCS (PCS) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Radian Group (NYSE: RDN) was downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $23 target at Citigroup on concerns over the company's potential merger with MGIC Investment (MTG).

• Heelys (NASDAQ: HLYS) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, to Hold from Buy at Brean Murray, to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, to Sector Performer from Outperformer at CIBC and to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia following the company's FY07 guidance which was well below the consensus.

• Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Merriman, as the firm believes there are a number of concerns that are not reflected in shares, including a flat N-T revenue outlook, a cut in 700bp in gross margins and a sharp uptick in receivable days, among other things.

• LeapWireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) and MetroPCS were both downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, as they believe the break in subscriber momentum will last for 6-9 months. Wachovia downgraded Leap Wireless to Market Perform from Outperform citing mixed Q2 results and weak Q3 guidance.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• UBS removed Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Coach (NYSE: COH) from its Strategic Stock Selection List.

• Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

• CBRE Realty (NYSE: CBF) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) were downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The value of luxury retailing chain Barneys New York, currently owned by Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY), just got a little steeper. Over the weekend, Japan's Fast Retailing Company said it would pay $950 million to acquire the Barneys chain. Since July 5, Fast Retailing has been trying to beat out Dubai investment group Istithmar, which originally offered $825 million for the chain but has since upped its bid to $900 million.

The latest offer is 15% higher than Istithmar's original acquisition price and nearly 140% above what Jones paid to buy-out Barneys in December 2004.

Jones Apparel officials have responded by saying Istithmar has two business days to respond with an offer that, according to a statement published by the Associated Press, is "at least as favorable to Jones as the amended Fast Retailing offer." If Jones decides to deal with Fast Retailing, it will owe the Dubai suitor a $22.7 million break-up fee.

Jones shares have dropped more than 2% today to hit a new 52-week low of $19.79. The stock may be continuing to real from its disappointing earnings report last week.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: British Airways (BAIRY), Symantec (SYMC), OfficeMax (OMX), Qwest (Q) and Metlife (MET) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• ABN Amro upgraded British Airways (OTC: BAIRY) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Friedman Billings believes Symantec's (NASDAQ: SYMC) fundamentals are about to show significant improvement over the next year and upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform.

• JP Morgan raised OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) shares to Overweight from Neutral on valuation.

• Qwest (NYSE: Q) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, expecting revenue growth to be driven by the improving enterprise business. JP Morgan added Qwest to its Focus List.
  

• Metlife (NYSE: MET) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill, based on valuation...
  

OTHER UPGRADES:

• ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest.

• Penn West (NYSE: PWE) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.

• Friedman Billings upgraded Cubic (AMEX: CUB) to Market Perform from Underperform.

• Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) to Equal Weight from Underweight.

• Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The market spent most of the day in the red, but shot up in the last hour to close in the green. The NYSE had volume of 4.1 billion shares with 1,398 shares advancing while 1,906 declined for a gain of 18.55 points to close at 9,573.05. On the NASDAQ, 2.9 billion shares traded, 1,263 advanced and 1,810 declined for a gain of 7.6 to 2,553.87.

Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) plummeted $3.10 (-12%) to $21.86 after a second quarter net loss. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) rose $10.85 (12%) to $99.19 as second quarter profit doubled. Trump Entertainment Resorts (NASDAQ: TRMP) lost $0.48 (-7%) to $6.22. OfficeMax Incorporated (NYSE: OMX) gained $2.23 (7%) to $35.11 on a small increase in net profit.

In options there were 9.0 million puts and 7.2 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 1.25. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) saw heavy volume on the December 32.50 calls (BMYLZ) with over 52,000 options trading. ALCOA Inc. (NYSE: AA) saw heavy volume on the August 47.50 calls (AAHW) with over 35,000 options trading. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) saw heavy volume on the August 75 calls (ZPYHO) with over 34,000 options trading. General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) saw heavy volume on the September 32.50 puts (GMUZ) with over 53,000 options trading.

The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (NASDAQ: $VIX) saw heavy volume on the August 25 calls (VIXHE) with over 55,000 options trading. The CBOE Volatility Index is a measure of option volatility and effectively a fear index of the market. The VIX jumped from 15.00 area in the beginning of July to a recent reading of 23.67 (see chart). The index being up indicates that there is still fear in the market. The heavy call option activity at the 25 strike represents a bet that fear will increase or a large insurance policy against further market downturns.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.