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Ray of Light: March's Jobs Gain Is More Evidence of Healing Labor Market

job growthThis past week's data point of significance for investors has to be March's job report, which indicated the U.S. economy created a better-than-expected 216,000 jobs, the U.S. Labor Department said.

Also, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.8% from 8.9%. A Bloomberg survey had expected the economy to create 200,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.9%. Further, job creation totals for February and January were revised higher: February to 194,000 from the initially estimated 192,000 gain; January to 68,000 from 63,000.

Continue reading Ray of Light: March's Jobs Gain Is More Evidence of Healing Labor Market

Ray of Light: U.S. Private Sector Hiring Increases

private sector hiringThis past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the February nonfarm payroll report by the U.S. Department of Labor, which indicated that the U.S. economy created 192,000 jobs last month -- roughly in-line with the consensus estimate.

The good news was complemented by the fact that January's job gain was revised up to 63,000 from 36,000 and December's to 152,000 from 121,000. January's low job tally was probably skewed lower by the winter blizzards and storms that hit the Northeast and Midwest; hence, it's safe to say that the economy is creating jobs. What it needs now is sustained demand to drive GDP growth, which will lead to stronger job growth.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Private Sector Hiring Increases

Australia's Job Boom Continues -- Is the U.S. Next?

Australia's economy added 54,600 jobs in October. What, you ask, does that have to do with U.S. investing?

Well, adjusting for Australia's population, November's job growth down under is the equivalent of a 728,000 monthly job gain in the United States -- in other words, a Roaring 90s-level monthly job growth performance.

Continue reading Australia's Job Boom Continues -- Is the U.S. Next?

Bright Spot: Economy Adds 151,000 Jobs

help wanted signHere is some good news. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in October. Plus, there were revisions for the previous two months, with private employers adding 107,000 jobs in September and 141,000 in August. This data were reported in the Wall Street Journal.

The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 9.6%. A broader measure of unemployment which includes people who stopped looking for work and those settling for part time jobs was at 17% for October.

Continue reading Bright Spot: Economy Adds 151,000 Jobs

Service Sector Growth Increases, Stocks Rally

help wanted signFavorable economic data pushed stocks near a 100-point gain Tuesday morning. One of the positive reports came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which noted that its service-sector index increased to 53.2 during September. This reading easily outpaced August's reading of 51.5 and handily trumped the Street's estimate for a reading of 52.0.

This reading is good because any readings above 50 signal growth in the service sector. This sector is considered the area where the most jobs are created; ergo, growth in this sector suggests that there will be more hiring on the horizon. On a yearly basis, the index shows that service companies have expanded every month this year.

Continue reading Service Sector Growth Increases, Stocks Rally

For Dow Clues, Monitor U.S. Job Growth

The obvious question many investors will ask, amid a Dow that surged ahead 200 points or so on Thursday, is "Does this mark a turning point for the market?" or 'Is now a good time to start committing more money to stocks?'

Let's ignore technical indicators for the moment, as more than one bullish fundamental indicator during this long recession -- an economic statistic or otherwise -- has signaled a "false rise" or a "sucker's rally."

Continue reading For Dow Clues, Monitor U.S. Job Growth

U.S. Job Market: Are Rays of Light Starting to Appear?

July's U.S. nonfarm payroll report by the U.S. Labor Department, commonly known as the monthly jobs report, was hardly something to write home about: an increase of 71,000 private sector jobs, after subtracting government jobs.

That's well below the 100,000 to 125,000 new jobs the U.S. economy needs to generate monthly just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Clearly, the nation has to do much better, but July's jobs report was not 'all-bad.' For the record, Ellen Zentner, a senior U.S. macroeconomist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, found a few rays of light.

Continue reading U.S. Job Market: Are Rays of Light Starting to Appear?

May Jobs Report Could Show a U.S. Expansion That's Gaining Momentum

May's economic data resolved little, as it relates to the direction of the U.S. stock market. Additional evidence of a U.S. manufacturing recovery was tempered by continued tepid consumer sentiment and little progress relating to initial jobless claims.

The debate now defaults to June's data, with the exception, of course, of May data reported in June. One May data point that could prove to be seismic is the May jobs report, scheduled to be released by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, June 4.

Continue reading May Jobs Report Could Show a U.S. Expansion That's Gaining Momentum

NBER: Recession Not Officially Over, Yet

One economic condition nearly every American can agree on -- as an everyday reality, or real-world feel: the recession is not over. In practical terms, with the U.S. unemployment rate at a totally unacceptable 9.7%, the recovery has not started.

Still, from a GDP standpoint, the economy is growing -- GDP has been positive for two quarters -- and many other economic fundamentals are signaling that the economic recovery probably started in July/August 2009.

Continue reading NBER: Recession Not Officially Over, Yet

Inflation Level, Not Q1 Earnings, to Determine Rally's Fate

Will the market rally continue?With institutional bulls and bears engaged in a battle over Dow 11,000 and with market's bull run showing signs of getting a little long in the tooth, investors are legitimately asking whether now is good time to exit certain stocks that have registered impressive gains, in anticipation of a correction.

The major unknown, of course, is whether a correction is up ahead. What's one act that will add ammunition to the bears' argument? The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Continue reading Inflation Level, Not Q1 Earnings, to Determine Rally's Fate

Manpower Survey Shows Some Hiring Potential

According to a study released earlier this morning by the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, roughly 5% of employers believe they will hire during the second quarter. While this percentage is better than the same quarter a year ago, it is virtually flat from the first quarter. In fact, it is down slightly, as a net 6% of firms hired in the first quarter.

Keep in mind that the data doesn't measure the number of jobs. It measures the portion of firms planning to hire less those intending to lay off workers.

Continue reading Manpower Survey Shows Some Hiring Potential

Straight Ahead: First Key Economic Data Point of the New Year -- December 2009 Jobs Report

The new year 2010 wastes no time in offering investors a "data point of consequence" -- the U.S. Labor Department's December 2009 monthly nonfarm payroll report, commonly known as the jobs report, scheduled to be released Friday January 8 at 8:30 a.m. EST.

It's a data point of note because job growth is the key to a sustained U.S. economic recovery and earnings growth: although the economy certainly can grow for a while without net monthly job gains (as it did in 2002), it's hard to envision a scenario in which the expansion continues for two, three, four or more years without job growth. And, by extension, job growth is intrinsic to both household formation, rising corporate revenue and stock prices. A Bloomberg News economists survey expects the U.S. economy to record zero job growth in December 2009, after losing a scant 11,000 jobs in November 2009.

Continue reading Straight Ahead: First Key Economic Data Point of the New Year -- December 2009 Jobs Report

California's Gov. Schwarzenegger Likely to Seek More Federal Assistance to Cut Deficit

California update: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-Calif.) is expected to ask President Obama to ease federal mandates and minimums on social programs to save the state up to $8 billion.

The action is needed because California, which has already cut programs to eliminate previous budget deficits, faces up to a $21 billion budget deficit for this fiscal year, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Continue reading California's Gov. Schwarzenegger Likely to Seek More Federal Assistance to Cut Deficit

Geithner Expects U.S Job Growth by Spring

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said he's expecting net, monthly U.S. job growth to resume by spring.

"Most economists would say that, by the spring, we'll have positive job growth," Geithner said in an interview Wednesday on ABC's "Good Morning America," while adding that it's unlikely there was any job growth in December.

Geithner also emphasized that the U.S. economy is "growing, it's getter better, getting stronger," while underscoring that the big variable in the expansion concerns when the U.S. economy starts adding jobs again.

Continue reading Geithner Expects U.S Job Growth by Spring

Want to know where the Dow is headed? Keep an eye on job growth

Now that the U.S. economy is growing -- GDP grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3, according to U.S. Commerce Department data, one key question for investors large and small is: Is the U.S. economic expansion sustainable?

Investors can immerse themselves in data on consumer spending, retail sales, new home sales, auto sales, and factory output etc., and all of those provide clues, no question. But if you're time-pressed and you want one metric to gauge the U.S. economy's likely health 6-9 months from now, monitor: monthly non-farm payrolls, as tallied by the U.S. Labor Department. I.E., how many jobs the U.S. economy lost or created in the previous month.

Continue reading Want to know where the Dow is headed? Keep an eye on job growth

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 01:45 PM

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