Today's weaker than expected job report supposedly contributed to its 250 point drubbing. But the simple reality is that nobody knows why the market went down.
If the market had gone up today, so-called analysts would have been available to explain that the market rose because weak job market results meant that the Fed was more likely to lower interest rates than it otherwise might have been.
After all, some analyst could have argued, the risks of not cutting interest rates -- in the form of a weaker economy -- far outweigh the inflationary risks. In fact, those analysts might argue, a decelerating job market means that there is a bigger risk of deflation. And what better way to counter that risk than to cut rates?
So why didn't the market rally today? Nobody who knows the answer is talking to the media. It's safe to say that the wisdom of those who comment to the press on market movements is worth exactly what you paid for it -- nothing.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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