The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its next Beige Book report of economic conditions on Wednesday, offering perhaps the best glimpse yet whether the recession has bottomed in the United States. The Beige Book report in March suggested that, by most measures, the economy was continuing to deteriorate and that prospects for near-term improvement was poor. But the April report showed that the deterioration was beginning to slow in some regions. Also, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled to be released Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out Friday. So by the end of the week, we could have a good gauge of the mood over the U.S. economy.