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Unemployment claims: you can make it look good if you want

Ten months ago again, newly laid-off unemployment claims fell to their lowest level in close to a year, suggesting that the job market may be showing signs of life. It feels like today's situation is the same.

Of course, declining claims isn't the same as new hiring, but at least it suggests that the bleeding is slowing down. The new unemployment rate is due to be published in a few minutes, and economists expect the rate to rise to 9.9%, a hair over September's 9.8%.

Continue reading Unemployment claims: you can make it look good if you want

Consumer debt declines for seventh month in a row

Consumer debt levels fell again in August for the seventh month in a row. Facing continued instability in the job market, people are paying down their debt, as a way to protect themselves. Savings are up, and borrowing is down – which could weaken the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States.

Total consumer debt outstanding dropped by $12 billion in August, according to the Federal Reserve, reflecting an annualized rate of 5.8%. Reality outpaced Wall Street's expectations, which were around $10 billion. In July, consumer debt outstanding fell $19 billion (9.1%), which was the largest in hard-dollar terms since 1943 and on a percentage basis since June 1975's 16.3%.

While consumer fear is playing a significant role, as a touchy housing market and dicey job situation leave little to lean on, the banks are also responsible for the change in direction. They aren't lending as easily, with stricter standards limiting the amount of credit available to consumers. You can't spend what you can't borrow.

Continue reading Consumer debt declines for seventh month in a row

Apartment vacancies spiked in Q2 in U.S.

Apartment vacancies in the United States hit their highest level in 22 years in the second quarter of 2009. Job losses are to blame, according to Bloomberg, as tenant demand falls when people don't have any income. Vacancies rose to 7.5% from 6.1% year-over-year, according to Reis Inc. But this still doesn't reach the 1987 level of 7.6%. In June, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a 26-year high, with payrolls dropping faster than expectations.

Conventional wisdom has it that potential homebuyers turn into renters when the job market softens. The rental pool is shrinking, however, leading to the high rate of apartment vacancies as landlords struggle to fill units. Asking rents for apartments fell 0.6% last quarter (for the second in a row), according to Reis, the largest fall since the company started to track this measure in 1999. Overall, asking rents (including other types of residences) were off 0.7% year-over-year, down to an average of $1,040 a month.

Continue reading Apartment vacancies spiked in Q2 in U.S.

Nervous workers opt against vacation time

Travel-industry experts hypothesize that employees may be opting out of summertime travel this year, out of concern that their jobs will be deemed unnecessary or easily replaced while they are out of the office.

What's worse? Coming back from a week in the mountains to find a mountain of work, or a boss newly cognizant of the fact that you're not as indispensable as everyone thought! Nervous workers appear to be fearing the latter, and whether or not this is driven by paranoia and panic, the travel market is suffering.

"People are scared of losing their jobs and want to stay in touch with their work," one travel expert told The Washington Times. Another noted that ". . . people feel guilty about indulging themselves and are nervous to leave their office for too long." And one New York-based advertising firm's survey showed that just over half of parents asked said they planned to cut down on vacation spending.

Continue reading Nervous workers opt against vacation time

The job market's thriving at Apple, even as iPhone concerns multiply

While my colleague Joseph Lazzaro noted earlier that continuing jobless claims are at a jaw-dropping 25-year high, we certainly can't blame the gadget-masters at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for this weakness in the job market. According to an SEC filing on Wednesday, the tech-sector heavyweight ramped up its payroll by 48% in fiscal 2008.

The Cupertino, California-based company reported 32,000 full-time and 3,100 temporary and contract employees as of September 27. That's up from 21,600 full-time workers and 2,100 temporary or contract staffers in fiscal 2007. Of those new hires, it seems that 8,000 went to work at Apple's retail outlets -- 50 new Apple stores were opened during the course of fiscal 2008.

In its first full quarter on the market, Apple reported that it sold 6.9 million iPhone 3Gs. However, it seems unlikely that sales of the smartphone will be so impressive in the future. Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. have already warned that their checks indicate a significant slip in iPhone production, and that sentiment was echoed Wednesday by UBS. Analyst Maynard Um warned that "recent data points may suggest unit volumes weaker than our current estimate of 5 million" for the December quarter. The production slip could reduce Apple's earnings per share by 5 cents.

At last check, AAPL is down about 3% to hover near the century mark.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

When Wall Street gets bloody, the tough make cupcakes

jslanderBloomberg News reports that Wall Street layoffs are putting blood on the streets. But those Wall Street vets have turned those layoffs into new careers -- one Harvard economics grad who formerly worked for Bear Stearns has started a business making cupcakes. That's because, as Bloomberg reports, Michael Maloney, who recruits finance professionals for Maloney Inc. in New York, said, "The job market is in the worst, most chaotic state I've ever seen it in fixed income. I've been doing this for over 30 years and I've never seen anything like this."

The statistics Bloomberg cites are stunning. 76,670 investment jobs "in the Americas" have gone up in smoke "following the global credit crunch that started a year ago." And 33,300 finance jobs in New York City, or "7.1% of the 2007 peak, will be cut by June 2009." And those who lose their jobs will be giving up big money. Wall Street workers averaged $399,360 in 2007 -- six times the $62,390 for New York City jobs outside the securities industry.

So the tough are turning to making cupcakes. Jessica Walter, who studied economics at Harvard, was vice president in credit strategy at Bear Stearns. Bloomberg quotes Walter as saying, "I want to teach kids to cook. The goal is to have this be my full-time job and make enough to live.'' To that end, she founded Cupcake Kids! in New York to provide birthday parties and cooking classes for children.

Continue reading When Wall Street gets bloody, the tough make cupcakes

The big chill for MBAs

This week, I'm going to be on a panel for an event at the USC Business School. And, I'm sure the big question will be: what's the job outlook for venture capital and private equity?

Unfortunately, my response won't be too optimistic. M&A is soft and the IPO market is soft. Moreover, if things continue, it's a good bet we'll see fewer venture capital deals.

All in all, it means fewer job opportunities for MBAs.

In fact, with the meltdown of Bears Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC), the firm is actually nixing some job offers for MBAs (which is a pretty rare thing). Although, they will still get their signing bonuses and relocation fees.

Interestingly enough, according to a recent piece in BusinessWeek, it looks like that MBAs that enter the workforce during tough times wind up having diminished compensation over their careers. In fact, it could mean millions of dollars.

The solution? Funny enough, it may mean staying in school until good times return.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Consumers picked up spending in July

The Commerce Department reported July consumer spending numbers this morning, and as expected, consumers picked up the pace during July. Spending during July rose 0.4%, matching what analysts had been expecting to see.

What surprised analysts was the degree to which incomes lifted in the month. July saw a 0.5% rise in income, which was the best move in the past four month.

While it is great to see spending on the rise, we should definitely be cautious to read too much into the July figures. Consumer confidence has been eroding in August, so do not be surprised if July's increases wind up being temporary as the mortgage meltdown has started to weigh in on every one's mind.

Continue reading Consumers picked up spending in July

Companies cave into helicopter parents

When I graduated college, the idea of having my parents negotiate a job offer for me would have sent shivers down my spine. Apparently, this current generation has no such qualms.

They call them "helicopter parents," and according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, they are annoying some of the biggest names in corporate America including General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) and The Vanguard Group.

What's even more shocking is that the hiring managers are ACCOMMODATING these overbearing people. They are taking a page from the U.S. Army, which now targets its advertising to prospective recruits. The world has certainly changed since I graduated college in 1991 and not for the better.

If I were a hiring manager, I would immediately revoke any job offer for those who had their mom or dad act as their agent. That is ridiculous.

If you are unable to speak for yourself when you graduate college, something has gone terribly wrong. Do today's twenty-somethings expect mom and dad to fight all of their workplace battles for them? When does it stop? This isn't healthy for either parent or child.

Helicopter parents are the types of people who would wrap their children in bubble wrap to protect them from all of life's disappointments. They make sure that no kid gets cut from a sports team and that everyone gets a trophy. These days, there are no winners and losers.

Unfortunately, life doesn't work that way.

Before the bell 3-07-07: Finding the right theme song for the market

What this market needs more than anything else is its own theme song, something that accurately reflects the current mood of investors. Here are a couple of ideas: "Upside Down" by Diana Ross, "Love Rollercoaster" by the Ohio Players, "Enter Sandman" by Metalica or "Sugar We're Going Down" by Fall Out Boy. None of them seem quite right though. If anyone has any suggestions, let me know.

Getting back to the market, stocks are headed down again. ADP Employer Services releases its report at 8:15 a.m. Eastern time, that may show that companies in the U.S. added 100,000 jobs in February, the slowest pace of increase since September, according to Bloomberg News. The Federal Reserve releases its beige book at 2 p.m. today. Meanwhile, stock futures are trading down.

How about "Signs" by the Five Man Electrical Band for the market's theme song?

In other news, Nikko Cordial Group's largest shareholder rejected Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) $10.8 billion buyout bid as too low. Several other big shareholders including Chicago-based Harris Associates made the same complaint, according to Bloomberg.

Dell Inc. (NYSE:DELL) in considering offering the free Linux operating system as an alternative to Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows. Consumers angry at Dell's poor quality machines now have an alternative to Microsoft's mediocre software.

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has privately questioned recent testimony about Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SIRI) acquisition -- not a merger -- of XM Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR), according to the New York Times. Martin questioned Sirius CEO's Mel Karmazin's claim that subscribers would get more programming for the same monthly rate.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:49 PM

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