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Corn conundrum? Stick with Caterpillar

With his latest research reports titled "Corn Conundrum" and "Grain Mayhem" a reader might be concerned that the latest ideas from Kevin Kerr are complex agricultural vehicles.

On the contrary, the editor of Marketwarch Global Resources Trader -- who is currently visiting farms and ethanol plants to get a first hand look at the situation -- believes that the investment vehicle of choice within the agricultural market is a farm equipment maker.

Corn and soybeans have rarely been a hot topic among average investors. But with ethanol now on the "front burner," farming has gotten a new-found interest among speculators. Indeed, Kerr is bemused that the financial news recently featured a "countdown clock" when the rather obscure USDA's planting intentions report was released.

He quips, "The latest planting intentions report garnered much fanfare. But a countdown clock? The report was hardly in need of one." And while this report might be of interest to grain traders, Kerr notes that most investors are best focused elsewhere.

He says, "Whatever side of the fence you fall on in the great corn-ethanol debate, one thing remains clear. Farmers have been having some banner years lately and it's almost like a new gold rush. And whether corn surges and soybeans fall or if soybeans rally and corn backs off, farmers still need new equipment."

Continue reading Corn conundrum? Stick with Caterpillar

John Deere is looking good for 2007

John Deere / Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is shaping a nice outlook for 2007. First consider their recently announced quarterly dividend increase from .39 cents to .44 cents a share. Then factor in an equipment contract to build 300 TRAM units like the one pictured above for an estimated total of $47 million (as much as $243 million if the Department of Defense wants all the bells and whistles). Deere and Co. is right on track for a banner year in 2007.

For the year 2007, Deere projects that equipment production and sales shall remain firm and steady with an overall increase of as much as 4%. They continue to advance and upgrade their manufacturing stream in an effort to become more efficient and accomplish quicker reaction times to fluctuating production demands. Given the fact that the above mentioned TRAM contract is for equipment manufactured by their construction and forestry division which was previously projected to be down in production by 5% in 2007, Deere's actual increase in production could become somewhat greater than 4%.

John Deere Capital Corporation, Deere's credit subsidiary, is expected to be their substantial performer in the coming year. For fiscal year 2006 DOCC reports net income of approximately $290 million. Deere projects net income in the range of $340 million for 2007 from their credit operations and cites portfolio growth as the main reason that should happen. They do make clear that it is their intent to continually reinvest that profit into creating continued new growth.

Some analysts are saying that Deere is being conservative in its projections for next year.

Continue reading John Deere is looking good for 2007

GE could see some upside thanks to the falling dollar

It would be easy for General Electric shareholders to miss the good news in today's Wall Street Journal. But tucked near the end of a story with the ominous headline, "Dollar's Slide Could Roil Stocks," (subscription required) was a mention of how the falling dollar could be a positive for GE.

Currency moves are always a mixed bag for businesses -- one reason they are so hard for investors to interpret. On the one hand, the dollar's slide makes foreign products more expensive. That's bad news for companies that rely on imports -- like retailers. For the economy, a falling dollar can lead to two major problems --  higher interest rates and rising inflation (as import prices rise).

But a falling dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper, which can increase the competitiveness of U.S. goods both at home and overseas. As a major exporter, General Electric, along with Caterpillar and  John Deere, is an "obvious beneficiary" of the dollar's recent slump, the Journal notes.

 

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