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Chasing Value: Shocked By Toxic Stock and Still Finding Deals

Yesterday I was shocked by the response to a poll I conducted in this very same column where I suggested that six out-of-favor stocks were a buy and would out perform the over all market. The results left me puzzled for several reasons.

For one thing I have been blogging for Aol. for over four years and I cannot remember an occasion that there was so much unanimity on anything before. I expected approximately equal votes for each of four possible responses to my question, and an appreciable number that might think I was off my rocker. Instead, I was jolted to a new reality when 84% of the respondents agreed that the six toxic stocks would outperform.

The six stocks are Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), BP p.l.c. (BP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Transocean (RIG). I thought I was taking a contrarian position and based on recent market activity that would seem to be the case. This raises another question. If my readers are any reflection of the market, how could the market move in the opposite direction of such overwhelming sentiment?

Continue reading Chasing Value: Shocked By Toxic Stock and Still Finding Deals

Johnson & Johnson Reports In-Line Second-Quarter Earnings

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported second-quarter net earnings and diluted earnings per share of $3.4 billion and $1.23, respectively. Taking an after-tax gain of $67 million out of the equation (stemming from the net impact of "litigation matters"), the company earned $1.21 per share and $3.4 billion. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $1.21 per share and revenue of $15.69 billion.

Quarterly revenue checked in at $15.33 billion. In addition, JNJ revised its full-year estimate, now expecting adjusted earnings between $4.65 and $4.75 per share. This new range includes the impact of the recalls of some OTC medicines, the suspension of production at a plant in Pennsylvania, and poor foreign-exchange rates.

Continue reading Johnson & Johnson Reports In-Line Second-Quarter Earnings

Blue Chip Buys: The Timely Ten

"Our primary purpose is to assist investors in growing their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their current and future needs," says blue chip stock specialist Kelley Wright.

The editor of Investment Quality Trends explains, "To that end we believe that high-quality stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.

"The Timely Ten list of stocks is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.

Continue reading Blue Chip Buys: The Timely Ten

Goldman Sachs Targets Allergan as Takeover Candidate

If you're interested on taking a bet on a potential high-flyer, you might want to take a look at Allergan (AGN).

Goldman Sachs recently said they expect more M&A activity in pharmaceutical and that Allergan is a prime candidate for a takeover. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) are two companies analysts are speculating may be interested in acquiring Allergan.

Goldman also upgraded its price target for Allergan on its Conviction Buy List from $78 to $81.

Continue reading Goldman Sachs Targets Allergan as Takeover Candidate

ADHD Patch Helps Investors Focus on Shire

ShireThe Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently gave Shire Plc (SHPGY) shareholders something to smile about when it approved Daytrana for treating patients between 13 and 17 years who suffer from Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

Daytrana is the only ADHD treatment that is available in a transdermal patch, which delivers methylphenidate through the skin into the bloodstream. It is already approved for use by patients between 6 and 12 years.

With this announcement, Shire -- which licensed Daytrana from Noven Pharmaceuticals -- stands to gain market share and increase revenues.

Continue reading ADHD Patch Helps Investors Focus on Shire

Chasing Value: American Eagle Will Soar Again

Let's go around one more time with American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), the retailer with the pristine balance sheet that designs and manufactures its own clothing line targeted at the 15 to 25 year old age group.

It was one of my successful picks for 2009, rising from $9.13 to a closing price of $16.98, with a 52 week high of $19.86. Today it is trading near its 52 week low of $11.35, opening at $11.61 and trading up at mid-day.

I think this eagle will soar again and surpass it's previous high.

Continue reading Chasing Value: American Eagle Will Soar Again

Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders

Stories are starting to appear that "my pal Warren" is gearing up for a major foreign acquisition. One of my dear friends Randy S. is taking a post graduate business class at UCLA where this issue is a part of the course. He is supposed to figure out what non US companies Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), led by Warren Buffett, might be considering for investment.

Ahh yes, the prediction business, quite tricky indeed. Starting with some basics, in most cases I would stick to the time tested philosophy that past performance is not an indicator of future success. That said, I think in the case of Buffett, it does. There are many clues along the trail based on his past performance.

Here are some basic consistencies from the existing portfolio that I would expect to hold true going forward.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders

Johnson & Johnson a Safe Buy?

It looks like some members in Congress are not too happy about the way Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has behaved in the aftermath of the recent recalls involving some medicinal products.

That may be, but I'll tell you, the stock is trading with a pretty cool dividend yield attached right now. At the time of this writing, shares were exchanging hands during the afternoon session at a price of $58.12. That means that the yield is about 3.7%.

Continue reading Johnson & Johnson a Safe Buy?

Motrin Causes More Headaches for Johnson & Johnson

JNJ logoJohnson & Johnson (JNJ) looks like it may need to take some Motrin to stave of the public-relations headache it's facing. Oh wait ... maybe that's not such a good idea. Motrin is the problem.

It turns out Johnson & Johnson learned about some problems with its Motrin formulas in November 2008. But instead of issuing a recall and letting the public know of the problem, Johnson & Johnson hired an outside contractor to go around and collect samples to see if the company should issue a full recall. Oops.

Continue reading Motrin Causes More Headaches for Johnson & Johnson

Be Careful When Buying Low

I want to buy something today. I haven't yet, but I really just want to get in there and get something. Here's what's stopping me:

Uncertainty. Yes, the dreaded unknown, the beast that is lurking around the corner, the one that might look an awful lot like an angry ursine monster. The way the market is falling, I get the feeling we could be in for a rough summer. There's no way of knowing, of course; stocks could return to bull-mode status tomorrow. Seriously, though, does it honestly feel that way? I'd be shocked if anyone could proffer such a sentiment with unwavering truthfulness.

Continue reading Be Careful When Buying Low

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions

The twelve super caps are down to seven: Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Johnson & Johnson, China Mobile, PetroChina, Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Five are American companies and two are Chinese. The five U.S.-based enterprises have historically strong management teams and balance sheets. If this was the only criteria, I might take pause when considering the two Chinese companies only because I do not know enough about them to make a judgment, except that they have been very successful.

"My pal Warren" placed a large bet on PetroChina (PTR), which he has since sold off, but he always makes a big deal about management, so we will give these two the benefit of the doubt. The two also pay the highest yields among the group.

So where do we stand today? We'll stick with all seven and here is why.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC

The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).

I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 4 -- the Dividend

China Mobil CHL logoIt's a cliché but it rings so true: just show me the money! In the case of stocks that's profits and distributions, or dividends.

The super cap review, in which I examine large cap stocks through different valuation methods, started with the 12 stocks with the highest capitalization and through several stock screens has been trimmed to just 10 stocks.

It has been widely reported that dividends contribute as much as 40% of the market stock appreciation on long term holdings. All things being equal, a diversified basket of dividend paying stocks should outperform a similarly diversified portfolio that does not.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 4 -- the Dividend

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 3

Exxon Mobil XOM logoOver the years I have referred to "my pal Warren" (Warren Buffet) on many occasions. He has taught me a great deal. I have learned a few things from Sir John Templeton (RIP) as well. But when I think about the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratios, it is Peter Lynch who stands tall.

Lynch has been retired for many years and has been generous enough to share some of his thoughts in a couple of worthy books: One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street. I highly recommend these best sellers to anyone that wants to expand their knowledge of value investing or manage their own finances.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 3

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2

In my search for value investments among the top twelve stocks by capitalization -- the "super caps" -- I began by reviewing the price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. Today we will move on to examine price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF).

If you are one of the lucky ones that benefited from the market's long rise from the depths of Hades and are now looking to rotate into less volatile positions, or you still remain apprehensive and want to stake out a new position, some of these super caps may be just for you.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2

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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 04:52 PM

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