So, Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholders are bracing themselves for another big weekend at the box office. Remember when we were bracing ourselves for the release of the Jonas Brothers concert film? Yeah, that failure. I certainly hope Miley Cyrus does a lot better with her project.

But I have my doubts. Hannah Montana: The Movie opened Friday at over 3,100 domestic theaters. I just don't feel the kind of buzz I had hoped to be feeling at this point surrounding the movie. I don't have the sensation that I've been inundated by the feature's brand equity.

Then again, I'm not the target demographic. Perhaps Disney is reaching all tweens as we speak via the platforms that they frequent and I'm just not aware of it. Tough to tell. Nevertheless, I've seen some of the commercials, and they don't seem overwhelmingly exciting.

Continue reading Is Disney's Hannah Montana movie going to fail this weekend?

Is Disney's Hannah Montana movie going to fail this weekend? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Well, it looks like Disney (NYSE: DIS) redeemed itself after the awful Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert disappointment.

According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, the Mouse's new movie, Race to Witch Mountain, was the number-one flick at domestic theaters this past weekend. The remake of the classic Disney film Escape to Witch Mountain took in roughly $25 million.

That was more than enough to send Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Watchmen to second place. The superhero project made around $18 million. Coming in third was another remake, although this is no family movie, I can tell you that. Distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, The Last House on the Left, a grim horror film full of terror and torture, took in $14 million.

Continue reading Dwayne Johnson and Disney conjure up a hit with 'Race to Witch Mountain'

Dwayne Johnson and Disney conjure up a hit with 'Race to Witch Mountain' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) won the box-office battle this past weekend. I have no idea what Watchmen is all about, except that there's a collection of superheroes and some sort of mutant blue dude in it, but I do know that it grossed around $55 million at domestic theaters, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo.

For a rated-R mainstream pic that is over two and a half hours long, that isn't too bad. If it had been shorter and a little more open to younger demographics with a PG-13 rating, it probably would have taken in even more revenue. Come on, guys, think next time! Go for profit maximization.

Continue reading Time Warner's 'Watchmen' takes over the box office while Jonas Brothers tank

Time Warner's 'Watchmen' takes over the box office while Jonas Brothers tank originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Mar 2009 11:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This was a big weekend for me. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience was released in over 1,200 theaters. No, I had no plans to see the movie at my local IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) auditorium. The reason I was so excited is because I own shares of Disney (NYSE: DIS). And I was praying that the film would firmly cement the Jonas Brothers in the collective consciousness of tweens across the globe.

Unfortunately, that didn't happen. In fact, the Jonas movie failed at the domestic box office. Don't even try to spin it. According to Boxofficemojo, the film came in second place with a little under $13 million (keep in mind I am working off estimates, final figures will be released later). Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) latest Tyler Perry project, Madea Goes to Jail, was number one again for the second week in a row, grossing about $16 million. This is really, really disappointing.

Continue reading The Jonas Brothers fail at the box office -- will they survive?

The Jonas Brothers fail at the box office -- will they survive? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Whoa, what a terrible quarter for Disney (NYSE: DIS)! Forget the magic. There's no magic going on at Disney. For the fiscal first quarter, revenues decreased 8%, earnings per share decreased 29%, operational cash flow decreased 60%, and free cash flow was negative. Decrease, decrease, decrease! Looks like Disney's brands cannot fend off a recession, no question. Sorry, Jonas Brothers and Hannah Montana.

Disney, which competes with Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), CBS (NYSE: CBS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, earned, after taking out a $0.04 per-share benefit from an investment sale, $0.41 per share. According to my earnings preview, the call was for around $0.52 per share. Well, I thought the Mouse was going to miss, but I think I characterized the potential miss as maybe being on the "slight" side. Yeah, this wasn't a slight miss.

Continue reading The Mouse is caught in recession trap: Should you sell Disney?

The Mouse is caught in recession trap: Should you sell Disney? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Feb 2009 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was reading an article from Fortune yesterday about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Bob Iger. When I got to the end of it, I had the biggest feeling of deja vu that I had ever experienced. Yes, I had heard it all before.

You've heard it all before, too, I'm willing to bet. Here's the basic gist of the piece: Bob Iger knows what he's doing. He's a genius. He's a creative powerhouse, a business wunderkind, a man who has studied the Disney brand, knows it inside and out, and is capable of leveraging that brand over multiple platforms to create immense economic value for shareholders. You know the examples,: you've got your Jonas Brothers, your Miley Cyrus, your Zac Efron and the whole High School Musical gang migrating from Disney Channel to concert stages to DVD releases to the silver Iger was the prescient exec who realized that Pixar should be acquired (take that, Michael Eisner!).

Only problem is, none of this seems to be working. I base this statement on the fact that Disney really hasn't broken out of a really long-term range. I honestly have to wonder if shareholders will ever see Disney at better than $50 per share in their lifetime. I can't be the only one wondering this. That's why I get a little annoyed when I read puff pieces like this one on Iger. Is he really that much of a visionary? And is he doing anything that original? Did he invent the concept of synergy? As far as I know, he did not. One of the main points of the article centered on the major franchises that Disney has going for it. Just once, I'd love to hear about Disney's plans to take one of its existing Disney Channel properties that has not hit franchise status and turn it into the next Hannah Montana phenomenon. To be fair, there may have been a few articles here and there on the subject, but none have studied it to my satisfaction, certainly.

Continue reading Can Bob Iger really turn Disney's stock around?

Can Bob Iger really turn Disney's stock around? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.

Well, 2008 has come and gone. If you were looking to be entertained over the past 12 months, you had a lot of choices. From Batman's battle with the maniacal Joker to Hannah Montana singing her little heart out in 3-D, there was something for everyone. Let's look at five of the hottest properties that made their way into the heart of the cultural mindshare in '08.

Up first is The Dark Knight, the second iteration of director Christopher Nolan's new vision of the Caped Crusader. That movie killed at the box office, and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) could not have been happier. Knight scored almost $1 billion at the global box office. More than half that number was captured in the domestic marketplace. There's no question that the movie mesmerized the collective intellect of the audience. There's also no question that Heath Ledger, who tragically passed away earlier in the year, impressed everyone with his portrayal of the chaotic and cruel Joker villain. I, however, do have a question. Is it just me, or was Knight not as awesome a film as the hype makes it out to be? I saw it, thought it was okay. I don't know, I'm just not sure that this new entry in the cinematic Batman mythos would have brought in as many bucks if the notoriety of Ledger's death wasn't attached to these particular reels of celluloid. To be honest, I didn't think Ledger did that unique of a job. And I thought The Joker's voice was annoying, almost sounding like Sam Raimi -- did anyone else happen to think that? Maybe it's just me. Nevertheless, I salute the success of Knight and respect the project for the impact it had on theaters 'round the world.

Continue reading Best & Worst in Money 2008: Hottest in entertainment

Best & Worst in Money 2008: Hottest in entertainment originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 06 Dec 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Get ready, Mouse fans. Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be letting Wall Street know this Thursday if its fourth quarter was a good one or not. A lot of eyes will be on the company. Shareholders will want to know the outlook for the theme parks and how the advertising marketplace is treating the company's media holdings. So far, things haven't been too bad at Disney, but many on Wall Street are expecting the recession is to catch up to the company. I expect this myself. So I'll be perusing the conference-call transcript for such items as guest spending at the parks and the quality of the scatter advertising market at ABC. I'll also be keeping my eye out for comments about the consumer-products segment and the company's investments in the video-game division. Disney is spending a lot on the latter, and I think shareholders need to have an idea of how the portfolio of games to be released during the holiday season is expected to perform. In terms of the former, I want to know if the Disney brand is working its magic in the retail channels.

In terms of the bottom line, Earnings.com says that income should be about $0.49 per share. That would represent growth of roughly 17%. I'd be happy with that double-digit number. And I'm pretty sure that estimates will be beat by a penny or two, knowing the company's reputation. But as a shareholder, I tend to be more interested in the cash-flow statement. I like to see how much free cash has been generated, and how the company is using it. In fact, we'll get the cash-flow number for the last twelve months this Thursday. I'll want to see how many shares have been repurchased, and I'll be interested in attempting to gauge what the next dividend increase is likely to be. Disney likes to take shares back as a way of rewarding shareholders, but management really needs to do a better job with the dividend, as I think it could be higher. I would expect that Disney will deliver a decent cash-flow statement.

And how are the Disney Channel franchises faring? Is Hannah Montana wearing out her welcome? Somehow, I don't think that will be the case; someday soon, sure, but not just now. And will the next High School Musical movie be released on the big screen with a new cast? I would appreciate one of the analysts out there inquiring about that. The whole Disney-Channel-incubator thing has been a powerful force for both the company and the brand, and I'm sure CEO Bob Iger will be crowing about it. But I'd love to know what his spreadsheets are saying about the longevity at this point for the current franchises. Will Disney know when it's time to sell out of one fad and invest in another? For that matter, how are the Jonas Brothers doing? We do hear about them, but they don't have the same iconic value of a Miley Cyrus, do they? They don't to me, at least, but maybe I'm just out of the loop. Iger should explain what plans the company has to turn them into the next truly big thing.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession?

Earnings preview: Will Disney resist the recession? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Nov 2008 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Will the Jonas Brothers be the next big thing for Disney? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There's good news and bad news for shareholders of Disney (NYSE: DIS). The good news, according to data published in this Hollywood Reporter article, is that the latest Disney Channel movie, Camp Rock, achieved better ratings than the first High School Musical movie. Rock attracted 8.9 million eyeballs while the first Musical brought in about 7.7 million viewers. The bad news is that Rock unfortunately couldn't match the success of the second Musical project, which captured the attention of over 17 million viewers.

This movie is extremely important. Disney execs want to find out if they truly know the formula for creating new fads for the kids. This is definitely a strong start, although I thought the movie's ratings might come a little closer to the second Musical film since all we've been hearing about lately is how hot the Jonas Brothers act is right now. It at least should have brought in over 10 million viewers.

I don't know, maybe it's me, but I just don't feel the same kind of buzz for this project as I do for the Musical franchise. Here comes the interesting part: Can Disney grow the movie from here? That will depend on how fickle the Disney Channel audience actually is. Don't fool yourself, the powers that be at Disney are under pressure to form a suitable pipeline of intellectual properties to replace the aging Musical and Hannah Montana brands. Make no mistake, they are aging quickly, as these kinds of things don't have terribly high half-lives.

Shareholders will want to see the Jonas Brothers and Camp Rock really grow into a merchandising phenomenon in the coming months. No matter what, though, the cable channel is a great asset, and it is a strong competitor of Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Nickelodeon network.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.

Will Disney's 'Camp Rock' be another 'High School Musical?' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Jun 2008 12:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Merchandise sales based on characters and intellectual properties owned by companies such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), which licenses heroes such as Batman, and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Nickelodeon, which has had great success with SpongeBob SquarePants, don't compare.

The article rightfully reminds readers that the total amount generated in retail sales is only an indication of how seemingly popular a company's brands are in the marketplace. It does not point to the amount of revenues or profit a company books on the sales (Disney will only receive a small percentage of those sales, perhaps between 5% and 15%).

The important thing I take away from this as a shareholder is that Disney is doing a reasonably good job of milking its franchises. As one might expect, the usual suspects were cited as drivers: Hannah Montana, High School Musical, the Jonas Brothers music project, and Disney Princesses are doing the heavy lifting for Disney's consumer-products division, along with a property that continues to surprise me: Cars. Amazing that the latter remains a popular seller in the boys category.

Continue reading Disney is a licensing king

Disney is a licensing king originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 14:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.