Continue reading Chasing Value: No Double-Dip Recession

Chasing Value: No Double-Dip Recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Sep 2010 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) had a blowout quarter with profits up 76%. Net income totaled $4.8 billion, up from $2.7 billion a year ago. Earnings per share came in at $1.09, topping Wall Street's estimates of 72 cents.

CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that a reduction of $1.5 billion of loan losses did not reflect "normal ongoing earnings." Dimon went on to say: "[O]ur wholesale businesses experienced reduced net charge-offs that led to reductions in loan loss reserves, and are currently seeing credit costs which reflect the increasingly healthy condition of our wholesale clients."

Continue reading JP Morgan Chase's Profit Jumps 76%

JP Morgan Chase's Profit Jumps 76% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Actually Better Than It Looks (LEN, GE, GME, BBBY, SHLD, QCOM, BA, BAC)

Closing Bell: Actually Better Than It Looks (LEN, GE, GME, BBBY, SHLD, QCOM, BA, BAC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Technician Leo Fasciocco, who focuses on stocks breaking out of resistance zones, is banking on JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), as a breakout buy on its rise over $39. Here's the latest from Ticker Tape Digest.

"JPM is one of the dominant financial firms. It has 30 million consumer customers and the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients.

"Recent tape action indicates good institutional buying interest. JPM's long-term chart shows the stock making a bottom around 15 in March. It has since rallied and double in price.

Continue reading JPMorgan (JPM): A breakout buy

JPMorgan (JPM): A breakout buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: The almost great and almost poor day (AXP, AIG, BRK-A, DRYS, IBM, PG)

Closing Bell: The almost great and almost poor day (AXP, AIG, BRK-A, DRYS, IBM, PG) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade

Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) is recently trading at $20.56 in pre-open trading, above its close of $19.51. JPM reduced its quarterly dividend to 5c and provided an inline Q1 update. JPM March 20 straddle is priced at $5.55, June 20 straddle is priced at $9.55. JPM March option implied volatility of 123 is above its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC) Financial Services closed at $24.61. PNC March option implied volatility is at 137; June is at 108; above its 26-week average of 77, according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: JP Morgan options expensive into dividend reduction originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Not that I necessarily thought the data would. Revenues from continuing operations decreased a whopping 23%, coming in at $16.7 billion. Net loss from continuing operations was $3.4 billion. This compared to a net profit of $2.1 billion in last year's similar quarter. The loss per share from continuing operations was $0.71. The big driver was, of course, a major collective write-down in the Securities and Banking category. Citigroup had to eliminate $4.4 billion of value in this area. Just about all the numbers in this report inspire no confidence. As market volatility to the downside worsens, assets under management are taking a hit. The Institutional Clients Group saw a major drop in its revenue base, diving 48%. And according to this source, this is the fourth quarterly loss for Citigroup in a row. In addition, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is now the largest bank in terms of assets. This major financial brand has taken quite the fall.

Citigroup is going to continue to have a tough time as the market and the consumer make their way through the credit crisis. The negative wealth effect that is surely coming (if it hasn't already arrived) will cause further deterioration in Citigroup's value. Earlier in the year, I was bullish on the company as a value play. I certainly no longer am. I see the bank's stock breaking through its 52-week low. I think the company will ultimately survive, but I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything in these days of surreality.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Citigroup's Q3: Par for the course, unfortunately originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With shares in Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) losing another 14% of their value Monday, and the stock trading under $13, rumors are swirling as to what the bank is planning to do. While there has been speculation that the bank may be taken private, an option that I think is very interesting, others have said that another bank is going to swoop in and take over the company. At the discount levels the stock is trading, that may make sense. The only problem is who the buyer will be.

MarketWatch has an interesting article about this issue and the claim is that there really is no one out there to make a bid for the struggling investment bank. The article quotes Jeff Harte, a securities industry analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners, " I'm hard pressed to give you many viable buyers of Lehman. Most large banks are focused on their own capital issues. Even if a bidder did come forward, it would have to win over a lot of Lehman employees -- who control around 30% of the stock -- or risk losing them once the deal was complete."

The most obvious suitor would be JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), but it has its hands full with Bear Stearns. Other banks like Citigroup (NYSE: C) or Wachovia (NYSE: WB) are fighting for survival. That leaves us with European banks, many of whom are also trying to stay afloat. One bank that has the money needed to finance a deal could be Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB). It could be interested in a deal as it would gain a foothold into the fixed-income desk at Lehman. The only problem is that the bank is focused on growing its retail banking franchise, not investment banking.

Which leaves us with the first option as the best one. Go private. Clean up the balance sheet, get profitable, wait a few years for the financial storm to pass, and go public once again.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/15/08.

Does anyone want Lehman? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to people familiar with the discussions, the Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) has held discussions with Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) and News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), among others, about joining it in a deal that could lead to the breakup of Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO). Some of the sources said the preliminary talks are unlikely to result in a deal with Yahoo!
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is reportedly in exclusive talks to sell its wound-care business Ethicon to the private-equity arm of JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), according to the Wall Street Journal. Terms of the potential deal were not disclosed.

• Sources familiar with the inquiry said that the Justice Department has opened a formal antitrust investigation into a deal that would allow Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) to provide some search advertising for Yahoo!. The Washington Post reported that investigators will demand documents from Google and Yahoo!, as well as other large companies in the media and Internet industries.

• Reuters reported that regulators in the European Union are looking at the long-term effects of BHP Billiton Limited's (NYSE: BHP) $170B bid for Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RTP). Sources familiar with the EU questionnaire said regulators have asked competitors and customers about effects of the deal on their businesses through 2015.

Newspaper wrap-up: EU investigating the long-term implications of Rio Tinto deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Jul 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD) is going to turn down InBev's unsolicited $46.35B takeover offer and that may come before week's end, the Wall Street Journal reported. InBev is then expected to pursue a hostile takeover and Anheuser will say the offer undervalues the company. Instead, Anheuser will attempt to boost its share price by selling non-core assets such as its theme parks.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Belgian-Dutch financial firm Fortis NL (OTC: FORSY), in a move to increase its solvency, will attempt to raise $12.54B, and will also cancel its interim dividend and sell some assets.
• According to people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported that JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) reportedly dropped out of the bidding for General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) $30B credit-card business. The sources said Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) are not expected to submit bids, as a result of charge-offs and rising delinquencies in their own credit card portfolios.
• The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange, in a joint venture with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), unveiled a pan-European equities trading platform to fight rivals that are hurting its market share.

Newspaper wrap-up: Anheuser-Busch prepares to battle InBev originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Jun 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks baby is preparing to leave Viacom (NYSE: VIA). That sounds bad, doesn't it? I mean, Viacom should, in theory, be freaked out about losing the star asset.

Yet, an analyst working at JP Morgan has a different take on things. According to Bloomberg, Imran Khan thinks that DreamWorks may be perceived as an expensive business asset. He pointed out that the expenses associated with DreamWorks helped drive a 22% decline in operating income for Viacom's film division in 2007. He further pointed out that films with more modest budgets will aid in generating better returns and will, in fact, reduce the risk of investing in the movie business.

Khan is absolutely correct on his call. I've been talking about the need to reduce film budgets for a long time now, probably to the point where people are sick of me, so I'm always glad when I read an opinion such as this. Only problem is, will the studios listen? Well, they should. Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Sony (NYSE: SNE) would all benefit from increased financial restraint when it comes to the business plans of their respective film units.

Continue reading An analyst thinks Viacom can afford the loss of DreamWorks

An analyst thinks Viacom can afford the loss of DreamWorks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 21 Jun 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Long Island, NY's Astoria Financial Corp (NYSE: AF) has found a novel way to reduce the number of its nonperforming loans by changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. By counting home loans as non performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, not two, Astoria reduced its non-performers to $69M from $106M in three months.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that the indictments of Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi, two former Bear Stearns hedge-fund managers, are expected to cite a personal e-mail suggesting the funds were "toast," four days before they told investors they had little to worry about. JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) has said it will cover the legal costs of the fund managers.
• Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) is set to reorganize its printer unit. The Wall Street Journal said that the unit's five business units will be cut down to three to become more efficient at adapting to a marketplace in which consumers are relying less on printing.
• According to people close to the situation, the Financial Times reported that Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc's (NYSE: BUD) board of directors is planning to meet this week to discuss the $46B bid from rival brewer InBev.

Newspaper wrap-up: When a troubled home loan is not originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that executives from Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) informed plant managers and union representatives that they intend to reduce overtime and that additional buyouts of union workers were necessary to cut costs.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that federal prosecutors are preparing to file criminal charges against Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, two hedge fund managers at Bear Stearns, now part of JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), with securities fraud.
• Investors who helped U.S. financial companies raise capital are currently losing nearly $10B on paper, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

• Fortune reported that the materials used to build Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) new 3G iPhone could cost as little as $100, while the components of the old iPhone cost $170, according to analysis by Portelligent, an Austin, Texas-based teardown specialist.
• Steve Jobs appeared to be extremely thin during the unveiling of Apple's new iPhone last Monday, causing speculation by observers. Fortune speculated that Jobs' weight loss over the years is being caused by a complex operation he underwent in 2004, in order to treat a rare type of pancreatic cancer.

Newspaper wrap-up: New iPhone materials are cheaper, firm says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Jun 2008 08:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of a series on some of the most memorable companies that have disappeared.

Going, going, gone!

No more Bear Stearns. What a shame. It did not have to be, but alas -- bad management, greed, and too much negativity on Wall Street made it unsustainable when sustainability is the word of the day. It is, or should I say was, one of the foremost investment banks on Wall Street for many decades.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) completed it acquisition of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) on May 30, 2008. As a result, Fitch Ratings has upgraded the ratings of BSC and removed them from Rating Watch Positive, where they were originally placed on March 17. As the direct and sole owner of BSC, JPM has assumed the capital structure of BSC.

Bear Stearns had been one of the top investment banking, clearing, and brokerage firms in the United States, serving major corporations, institutions, governments, and high net worth individuals. Through several subsidiaries, it provided asset management, lending, and merger and acquisition advisory services. It's been a leading market-maker for NYSE-listed securities (through Bear Wagner Specialists), as well as for OTC shares, corporate and government bonds, and derivative products.

It was these derivative loan instruments that did them in. Bear Stearns, a company that for decades was relied upon to help its customers assess risk, fell short when it came to managing its own. Management was not watching very closely, and if they were, they did not understand what they were seeing. (See Serious Money: The page on Buffett Part V: Company Management.)

Continue reading Companies that vanished: Bear Stearns -- a lesson learned?

Companies that vanished: Bear Stearns -- a lesson learned? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) and Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), is in talks to acquire Alltel Corp. in a deal valued at about $27B, the Wall Street Journal reported. If successful, the combined companies would create the largest cellphone company, and would be better positioned to compete against AT&T Inc (NYSE: T).
• Gregory B. Penner, the son-in-law of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) chairman S. Robson Walton, is expected to join the company's board of directors, a move seen as the beginning of a leadership change at the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• The Financial Times reported that Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek refused to provide funds to Bear Stearns shortly before Bear's sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). Temasek reportedly refused the request for practical and political reasons.
• Russia's Interior Ministry questioned the head of BP Plc's (NYSE: BP) Russian oil venture as part of a criminal investigation into possible large-scale tax evasion, the Financial Times reported.

Newspaper wrap-up: Verizon Wireless may acquire Alltel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Jun 2008 08:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When it comes to M&A, JP Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) Jamie Dimon is a pro. But, when he agreed to purchase the distressed Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC), he had to reinvent the playbook. After all, he had only a couple days to evaluate the transaction.

Well, there's an excellent piece on this in the Wall Street Journal [a paid publication]. Basically, Dimon realized that speed was critical -- as well as real-time communications. In a complex deal, things can implode easily.

For example, JP Morgan quickly setup fiber cables to connect its information technology (IT) system with that of Bear Stearns. This was critical to allow for the unloading of portfolio assets, which helped to reduce the overall risk of the deal.

In fact, JP Morgan has an army of advisers and employees that are combing through many documents and computer files. No doubt, there are thousands of reports trying to track the progress. And so far, it looks like things are running smoothly.

Continue reading JP Morgan's Bear of a deal

JP Morgan's Bear of a deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 24 May 2008 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When the CEO of one of the world's largest money center banks says things in the credit market will be bad for a long time, it is at least worth a listen.

James Dimon, head of JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) told German publication Welt am Sonntag that he thinks the financial crisis in the U.S. could go on for much longer, according to a report by Reuters. Because Dimon's bank is in fairly good shape and has not had to level of write-offs that many of his peers have suffered, the long cold Winter of finance may not harm his company too badly. That does not go for other banks.

If the stock market is a fairly good proxy for which financial firms are likely to be OK in a prolonged crisis and which are not, then Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) have to be the top candidates for more trouble. Over the past year, JPM's shares are off about 5%. Citi is down 50% and Merrill is off by over 40%.

If Dimon is right, many big banks and brokerages are in for more write-offs as mortgage defaults move up, LBO debt loses more of its value, and consumer credit card paper gets hit by delinquencies. More write-offs mean raising more capital, something which Merrill and Citi have been doing with regularity.

If the two weak firms need to raise another $10 billion each, it is not hard seeing their shares slide by 15% or more. They almost certainly will survive, but not without shareholders paying a big price.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

JP Morgan CEO: Financial crisis still has legs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 May 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With Citigroup's (NYSE: C) quarterly report, many investors hoped that the bank had gotten most of its bad news out. It wrote off a great deal of its mortgaged-backed inventory and LBO-debt. The firm also said it would fire 9,000 people. That number will likely rise. Citi has pledged that it will cut nearly 20% of its total operating costs.

Some of the gloom around the stock lifted. It traded over $25. It was as low as $17.99 recently.

But, many still view the future of Citi as grim. In an odd way, the quarterly report showed the bank as weaker than investors thought. According to Bloomberg, "The writedowns burned through much of the $30 billion of capital Citigroup has raised since late last year, leaving it vulnerable to further charges and loan-loss provisions." In other words, the bank may have to raise more money, or sell one of its successful divisions. Smith Barney often comes up in that conversation.

Or, if matters get worse quickly and there is not ready capital to bail out the bank, it could still be dismantled in a fire sale. Whether the Fed would turn to JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) or Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to buy Citi and handle the decisions of which parts must go or whether the firm's board would do it, the alternatives would ruin one of the world's largest financial companies. But, it did get into the mess all on its own.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Many analysts see Citigroup as still troubled originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 Apr 2008 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.