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Sunday Funnies: Economics -- art or science

In running a very tight stock screen recently for value plays Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) showed up on a list of 14 stocks. Interestingly all the large railroad stocks did. This reminded me of several stories I have done on the subject, the most recent being Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup.

To summarize, about six weeks ago a Citigroup (NYSE: C) analyst declared it was time to sell the stock when BNI was trading in the mid $60s -- I said investors should do the opposite, it was a great value. Friday the stock closed at $76.98. Even at this price it is a value and ever more so with oil prices steadly creeping up.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Economics -- art or science

What will move the Dow? A look inside the average

"What can get this market going again?" asks Chuck Carlson. In The DRIP Investor he says, "It's helpful to understand what stocks within the Dow need to do well for the index to do well."

"Not surprisingly, IBM (NYSE: IBM), the highest-priced stock in the Dow, carries the greatest weighting at more than 9% of the index. Obviously, with such a heavy weighting in the index, IBM will need to be a decent performer for the Dow to do well going forward.

"And when you total up the exposure of IBM with the other tech stocks in the Dow - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) - the total tech weighting in the Dow is 16%. Thus, tech stocks matter to the Dow, so it is diffcult to see the Dow sustaining a move upward without a nice rebound in the tech sector.

Continue reading What will move the Dow? A look inside the average

Banks not disclosing billions -- why all the secrecy, Paulson?

A spokesman for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Thomas Kelly said his firm has not disclosed what it did with the $25 billion in emergency bailout money it has received. In fact, JPMorgan Chase is declining to provide any such disclosure.

AP has reported that none of the 21 banks that received $1 billion or more from taxpayers is tracking, or at least willing to disclose how they are using the money. Let me be clear -- THIS STINKS TO THE HIGH HEAVENS!

What kind of deals did Treasury Secretary Paulson make with these favored financial institutions? The money would be very easy to track. Why wouldn't that be a part of the bargain?

Paulson obviously did not read Conservative bankers? Surely you jest!, but he should have. Of course, having former Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO Paulson negotiate with his Wall Street buddies on behalf of the taxpayer is highly suspect. At a minimum we have the good 'ol boy network operating in full form.

The banks simply are avoiding what should be required scrutiny by pleading ignorance. I don't believe the money can't be tracked, or even traced now after the fact. What happened to the idea of more transparency? More cover up I fear!

The banks should be subject to full disclosure. The use of the funds should be subject to review. Government money should be subject to the Freedom of Information Act. Why all the secrecy?

PS: Personal emails I have been receiving and the initial comments indicate strong sentiment about this issue. I encourage those that care to forward this story to their elected officials and friends encouraging full disclosure -- as promised! Obama used the internet to help win the White House, lets use it to get someone to listen with an internet blast from all over the country!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Chasing Value: JPM creates JNJ opportunity

Yesterday, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was downgraded by JP Morgan as reported by my colleague Melly Alazraki in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded - really?.

I wanted to further elaborate on some issues because of the position Johnson & Johnson holds in our hearts, and many of our portfolios. I should also point out that the downgrade did have a caveat, the analyst believes the stock may very well regain strength toward the end of 2009.

JPM believes Johnson & Johnson is expensive relative to it's peers. That should be expected from my point of view because it is considered the measure of a safe haven in our uncertain times. The tougher the economy becomes the more one should expect JNJ to separate itself from others.

Continue reading Chasing Value: JPM creates JNJ opportunity

Citigroup's Q3: Par for the course, unfortunately

Citigroup (NYSE: C), whose financial colleagues include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB), reported results for the third quarter on Thursday. And they tell me that, no, we haven't seen the end of the issues plaguing the financial sector.

Not that I necessarily thought the data would. Revenues from continuing operations decreased a whopping 23%, coming in at $16.7 billion. Net loss from continuing operations was $3.4 billion. This compared to a net profit of $2.1 billion in last year's similar quarter. The loss per share from continuing operations was $0.71. The big driver was, of course, a major collective write-down in the Securities and Banking category. Citigroup had to eliminate $4.4 billion of value in this area. Just about all the numbers in this report inspire no confidence. As market volatility to the downside worsens, assets under management are taking a hit. The Institutional Clients Group saw a major drop in its revenue base, diving 48%. And according to this source, this is the fourth quarterly loss for Citigroup in a row. In addition, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is now the largest bank in terms of assets. This major financial brand has taken quite the fall.

Citigroup is going to continue to have a tough time as the market and the consumer make their way through the credit crisis. The negative wealth effect that is surely coming (if it hasn't already arrived) will cause further deterioration in Citigroup's value. Earlier in the year, I was bullish on the company as a value play. I certainly no longer am. I see the bank's stock breaking through its 52-week low. I think the company will ultimately survive, but I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything in these days of surreality.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Option Update: JP Morgan Chase volatility elevated; shares near five-year low

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) recently down $1.65 to $32.86:


JPM is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 17. JPM call option volume of 42,387 contracts compared to put volume of 33,557 contracts. JPM July 32.5 straddle was priced at $3.84. JPM August option implied volatility of 72 was above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Anheuser-Busch prepares to battle InBev

MAJOR PAPERS:

Newspaper wrap-up: When a troubled home loan is not

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Long Island, NY's Astoria Financial Corp (NYSE: AF) has found a novel way to reduce the number of its nonperforming loans by changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. By counting home loans as non performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, not two, Astoria reduced its non-performers to $69M from $106M in three months.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that the indictments of Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi, two former Bear Stearns hedge-fund managers, are expected to cite a personal e-mail suggesting the funds were "toast," four days before they told investors they had little to worry about. JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) has said it will cover the legal costs of the fund managers.
  • Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) is set to reorganize its printer unit. The Wall Street Journal said that the unit's five business units will be cut down to three to become more efficient at adapting to a marketplace in which consumers are relying less on printing.
  • According to people close to the situation, the Financial Times reported that Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc's (NYSE: BUD) board of directors is planning to meet this week to discuss the $46B bid from rival brewer InBev.

Newspaper wrap-up: Verizon Wireless may acquire Alltel

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) and Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), is in talks to acquire Alltel Corp. in a deal valued at about $27B, the Wall Street Journal reported. If successful, the combined companies would create the largest cellphone company, and would be better positioned to compete against AT&T Inc (NYSE: T).
  • Gregory B. Penner, the son-in-law of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) chairman S. Robson Walton, is expected to join the company's board of directors, a move seen as the beginning of a leadership change at the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The Financial Times reported that Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek refused to provide funds to Bear Stearns shortly before Bear's sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). Temasek reportedly refused the request for practical and political reasons.
  • Russia's Interior Ministry questioned the head of BP Plc's (NYSE: BP) Russian oil venture as part of a criminal investigation into possible large-scale tax evasion, the Financial Times reported.

Newspaper wrap-up: Bad news for banks, but it could have been worse

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • While bank stocks aren't exactly hot, they triggered yesterday's rally because when J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) reported, there were no unexpected surprises, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". The ups and downs in the sector are expected to continue.
  • According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) may be moving closer to outsourcing its search advertising to Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) after an initial test yielded what they considered to be positive results.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The New York Times reported that AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) is planning today to make an announcement that they will gift $100M to improve the skills of the nation's work force and fight the problem of high school dropouts.
WEB SITES:
  • Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) is best known for its blockbuster drug Revlimid which is used treat multiple myeloma, a cancer which attacks blood and bones. For patients, it can prolong their lives about 2.9 years, or longer, according to Investor's Business Daily's "The New America".

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Q1 profits expected to fall

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) to post smaller profits in the first quarter. Both banks are scheduled to report results on Wednesday.

JP Morgan is expected to earn 65 cents per share, which is down 51% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.34. The company has tended to beat quarterly estimates recently. However, it fell short of the consensus fourth-quarter 2007 estimate by six cents, or 6.8%.

New York-based JP Morgan is the third largest financial services firm in the U.S, behind Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and recently agreed to buy Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). In the past year, JP Morgan's revenues were $116.3 billion and its net income totaled $15.3 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is -23.4%, much worse than the banking industry average and the S&P 500. Yet the consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy JPM and has been for most of the past three months.

The stock has fallen 15.5% in the past year and trades at a P/E of 9.47. Shares closed Monday at $41.50.

Continue reading JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Q1 profits expected to fall

Q1 expectations for big banks look familiar

The quarter has hardly begun and, with analysts and investors watching nervously, the earnings crunch is about to begin anew. The following 11 big banks are among companies reporting results the week of April 14 to April 18.

These three are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to be the the top performers in the first quarter, based on earnings growth from the same period of last year:

These also happen to be three of the four forecast top performers from just before fourth quarter of 2007 results were reported back in January.

Continue reading Q1 expectations for big banks look familiar

Newspaper wrap-up: Citigroup closing in on deal to sell $12B of its leveraged loans

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • In an effort to increase sales in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is in talks with a government-owned vehicle in Dubai called Tecom about establishing a joint venture.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM), which obtained a $7B capital infusion from TPG and other investors, had reportedly been working on the TPG deal while negotiating with JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), which made a preliminary takeover bid of about $7B, people familiar with the deal said.
  • Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is close to reaching a deal to sell $12B in leveraged loans at a discount to a group of leading private equity firms, the Financial Times reported. Although details of the deal were still being worked out, inside sources said Apollo Management, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The UK Times reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is today expected to announce that its 787 Dreamliner has been delayed by 18 months, a setback which will affect all airlines that have ordered the 787, including British Airways Plc (OTC: BAIRY) and Virgin Atlantic.

Newspaper wrap-up: TPG, others, to invest $5B Washington Mutual

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Evergreen Solar Inc (NASDAQ: ESLR) is expected to announce today that it will double the size of its manufacturing facility in Massachusetts and add about 350 new jobs as part of its ongoing expansion, according to the Boston Globe.
WEB SITES:
  • Bloomberg reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) has been the only major investment bank that has refused to reduce its leverage. In fact, Goldman's adjusted leverage ratio of assets rose to 18.6 at the end of February, from 17.5 at the end of November.

Is Citigroup appealing right now?

It's been a vicious down market in financials. Hey, I know of what I speak -- I own CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE), Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) in my portfolio. I've previously discussed how my investments have been left wounded and bloody at the claws of the angry bears that have been running rabid-crazy on Wall Street as of late.

But -- is it me, or do things feel a little better? Has the price action on the major market indexes put you in a better mood? Of course, I'm writing this before the market opens, so sentiment can change on a moment's notice, but still, it's worth noting that investors must study those beaten-down stocks that have a great brand history behind them and that one assumes will still be around years from now. Citigroup (NYSE: C) is a stock I've been thinking about the last couple days, especially after JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) found itself raising its bid for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). What I find somewhat appealing about Citi's stock is its 52-week range -- the low point was a share price of $17.99, while the high point was north of $55 per stub. No, I don't think Citi will rocket back to the high end of that range anytime soon, but I like that it has bounced off the low. As of yesterday's close, Citi was valued at $23.42.

Naturally, I'm trying to figure out if that $17.99 is the final low. I think it just might be, but I want to wait to see if Citi can go higher from here before deciding whether or not to enter. It would be hard to believe that Citi isn't going to be higher a few months from now than where it is trading at currently, especially considering its post-dividend-cut-yield. But I think the market is still capable of volatile swings even though, as I've stated, my mood has improved. Bottom line: Citi isn't far enough away from its low for me to enter right now. I guess those financials that I already own have got me thinking twice about this Dow stock.

Disclosure: I own shares in CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, MFA common stock, and MFA preferred stock; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 11:56 PM

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