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JPMorgan (JPM): A breakout buy

Technician Leo Fasciocco, who focuses on stocks breaking out of resistance zones, is banking on JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), as a breakout buy on its rise over $39. Here's the latest from Ticker Tape Digest.

"JPM is one of the dominant financial firms. It has 30 million consumer customers and the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients.

"Recent tape action indicates good institutional buying interest. JPM's long-term chart shows the stock making a bottom around 15 in March. It has since rallied and double in price.

Continue reading JPMorgan (JPM): A breakout buy

Closing Bell: The almost great and almost poor day (AXP, AIG, BRK-A, DRYS, IBM, PG)

Today was like the love interest from school that got away, but at the last minute came back. Things were looking great with a near 200 point rally on the heels of much better than expected new home sales and after durable goods posted a gain rather than another loss.

But the Treasury auction followed the UK's trend of a dismal auction and things rolled over to go all the way deep into negative territory. A late day recovery came out of nowhere, probably on funds buying in with late day orders. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 7,749.81 +89.60 (1.17%)
S&P 500 813.88 +7.63 (0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,528.95 +12.43 (0.82%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: The almost great and almost poor day (AXP, AIG, BRK-A, DRYS, IBM, PG)

Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade

Today one of my picks for the year, Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), was upgraded from neutral to buy at the investment bank now regular bank Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS).

It was only yesterday that AAUK was downgraded from neutral to underweight by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). No doubt they were responding to the news that Standard & Poors cut Anglo's rating two notches to 'BBB' based on it's 40% leverage and the potential for its cash-flow and income to be impacted by continuing soft markets throughout the year in many commodities.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade

Options Update: JP Morgan options expensive into dividend reduction

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) is recently trading at $20.56 in pre-open trading, above its close of $19.51. JPM reduced its quarterly dividend to 5c and provided an inline Q1 update. JPM March 20 straddle is priced at $5.55, June 20 straddle is priced at $9.55. JPM March option implied volatility of 123 is above its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC) Financial Services closed at $24.61. PNC March option implied volatility is at 137; June is at 108; above its 26-week average of 77, according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Citigroup's Q3: Par for the course, unfortunately

Citigroup (NYSE: C), whose financial colleagues include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB), reported results for the third quarter on Thursday. And they tell me that, no, we haven't seen the end of the issues plaguing the financial sector.

Not that I necessarily thought the data would. Revenues from continuing operations decreased a whopping 23%, coming in at $16.7 billion. Net loss from continuing operations was $3.4 billion. This compared to a net profit of $2.1 billion in last year's similar quarter. The loss per share from continuing operations was $0.71. The big driver was, of course, a major collective write-down in the Securities and Banking category. Citigroup had to eliminate $4.4 billion of value in this area. Just about all the numbers in this report inspire no confidence. As market volatility to the downside worsens, assets under management are taking a hit. The Institutional Clients Group saw a major drop in its revenue base, diving 48%. And according to this source, this is the fourth quarterly loss for Citigroup in a row. In addition, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is now the largest bank in terms of assets. This major financial brand has taken quite the fall.

Citigroup is going to continue to have a tough time as the market and the consumer make their way through the credit crisis. The negative wealth effect that is surely coming (if it hasn't already arrived) will cause further deterioration in Citigroup's value. Earlier in the year, I was bullish on the company as a value play. I certainly no longer am. I see the bank's stock breaking through its 52-week low. I think the company will ultimately survive, but I can't say I'm entirely confident about anything in these days of surreality.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we get fed support for a housing bottom, we can really turn things around.

If I were at Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), today would be a day where I issued several billion in preferred stock or I issued a multibillion equity offering. Why? Because the deed is done; the shorts panicked and covered and took the stock up where it could now be worth doing a deal.

If things are so great at WFC, why do they have to do a deal? Simple: They have a big increase in nonperformers, and when you have a big increase in nonperformers ,you raise capital. Period.

Yesterday's relief rally was not about housing prices bottoming -- I think that will happen next year, not this year -- it was about getting the shorts. The shorts had had their way all over everything. Suddenly you get this surprise smackdown by Chris Cox of the so-called naked shorts -- it's really not at all about that if these stocks aren't hard to borrow -- and you get a dividend boost, something that shorts don't like to pay.

I think today's "upside surprise" from JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) will generate more short-covering. So will Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) when it declares its dividend.

Which it will.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now

Does anyone want Lehman?

With shares in Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) losing another 14% of their value Monday, and the stock trading under $13, rumors are swirling as to what the bank is planning to do. While there has been speculation that the bank may be taken private, an option that I think is very interesting, others have said that another bank is going to swoop in and take over the company. At the discount levels the stock is trading, that may make sense. The only problem is who the buyer will be.

MarketWatch has an interesting article about this issue and the claim is that there really is no one out there to make a bid for the struggling investment bank. The article quotes Jeff Harte, a securities industry analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners, " I'm hard pressed to give you many viable buyers of Lehman. Most large banks are focused on their own capital issues. Even if a bidder did come forward, it would have to win over a lot of Lehman employees -- who control around 30% of the stock -- or risk losing them once the deal was complete."

The most obvious suitor would be JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), but it has its hands full with Bear Stearns. Other banks like Citigroup (NYSE: C) or Wachovia (NYSE: WB) are fighting for survival. That leaves us with European banks, many of whom are also trying to stay afloat. One bank that has the money needed to finance a deal could be Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB). It could be interested in a deal as it would gain a foothold into the fixed-income desk at Lehman. The only problem is that the bank is focused on growing its retail banking franchise, not investment banking.

Which leaves us with the first option as the best one. Go private. Clean up the balance sheet, get profitable, wait a few years for the financial storm to pass, and go public once again.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/15/08.

Newspaper wrap-up: EU investigating the long-term implications of Rio Tinto deal

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Sources familiar with the inquiry said that the Justice Department has opened a formal antitrust investigation into a deal that would allow Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) to provide some search advertising for Yahoo!. The Washington Post reported that investigators will demand documents from Google and Yahoo!, as well as other large companies in the media and Internet industries.
WEB SITES:
  • Reuters reported that regulators in the European Union are looking at the long-term effects of BHP Billiton Limited's (NYSE: BHP) $170B bid for Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RTP). Sources familiar with the EU questionnaire said regulators have asked competitors and customers about effects of the deal on their businesses through 2015.

Newspaper wrap-up: Anheuser-Busch prepares to battle InBev

MAJOR PAPERS:

An analyst thinks Viacom can afford the loss of DreamWorks

Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks baby is preparing to leave Viacom (NYSE: VIA). That sounds bad, doesn't it? I mean, Viacom should, in theory, be freaked out about losing the star asset.

Yet, an analyst working at JP Morgan has a different take on things. According to Bloomberg, Imran Khan thinks that DreamWorks may be perceived as an expensive business asset. He pointed out that the expenses associated with DreamWorks helped drive a 22% decline in operating income for Viacom's film division in 2007. He further pointed out that films with more modest budgets will aid in generating better returns and will, in fact, reduce the risk of investing in the movie business.

Khan is absolutely correct on his call. I've been talking about the need to reduce film budgets for a long time now, probably to the point where people are sick of me, so I'm always glad when I read an opinion such as this. Only problem is, will the studios listen? Well, they should. Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Sony (NYSE: SNE) would all benefit from increased financial restraint when it comes to the business plans of their respective film units.

Continue reading An analyst thinks Viacom can afford the loss of DreamWorks

Newspaper wrap-up: When a troubled home loan is not

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Long Island, NY's Astoria Financial Corp (NYSE: AF) has found a novel way to reduce the number of its nonperforming loans by changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. By counting home loans as non performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, not two, Astoria reduced its non-performers to $69M from $106M in three months.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that the indictments of Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi, two former Bear Stearns hedge-fund managers, are expected to cite a personal e-mail suggesting the funds were "toast," four days before they told investors they had little to worry about. JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) has said it will cover the legal costs of the fund managers.
  • Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) is set to reorganize its printer unit. The Wall Street Journal said that the unit's five business units will be cut down to three to become more efficient at adapting to a marketplace in which consumers are relying less on printing.
  • According to people close to the situation, the Financial Times reported that Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc's (NYSE: BUD) board of directors is planning to meet this week to discuss the $46B bid from rival brewer InBev.

Newspaper wrap-up: New iPhone materials are cheaper, firm says

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that executives from Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) informed plant managers and union representatives that they intend to reduce overtime and that additional buyouts of union workers were necessary to cut costs.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that federal prosecutors are preparing to file criminal charges against Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, two hedge fund managers at Bear Stearns, now part of JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), with securities fraud.
  • Investors who helped U.S. financial companies raise capital are currently losing nearly $10B on paper, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Fortune reported that the materials used to build Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) new 3G iPhone could cost as little as $100, while the components of the old iPhone cost $170, according to analysis by Portelligent, an Austin, Texas-based teardown specialist.
  • Steve Jobs appeared to be extremely thin during the unveiling of Apple's new iPhone last Monday, causing speculation by observers. Fortune speculated that Jobs' weight loss over the years is being caused by a complex operation he underwent in 2004, in order to treat a rare type of pancreatic cancer.

Companies that vanished: Bear Stearns -- a lesson learned?

This post is part of a series on some of the most memorable companies that have disappeared.

Going, going, gone!

No more Bear Stearns. What a shame. It did not have to be, but alas -- bad management, greed, and too much negativity on Wall Street made it unsustainable when sustainability is the word of the day. It is, or should I say was, one of the foremost investment banks on Wall Street for many decades.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) completed it acquisition of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) on May 30, 2008. As a result, Fitch Ratings has upgraded the ratings of BSC and removed them from Rating Watch Positive, where they were originally placed on March 17. As the direct and sole owner of BSC, JPM has assumed the capital structure of BSC.

Bear Stearns had been one of the top investment banking, clearing, and brokerage firms in the United States, serving major corporations, institutions, governments, and high net worth individuals. Through several subsidiaries, it provided asset management, lending, and merger and acquisition advisory services. It's been a leading market-maker for NYSE-listed securities (through Bear Wagner Specialists), as well as for OTC shares, corporate and government bonds, and derivative products.

It was these derivative loan instruments that did them in. Bear Stearns, a company that for decades was relied upon to help its customers assess risk, fell short when it came to managing its own. Management was not watching very closely, and if they were, they did not understand what they were seeing. (See Serious Money: The page on Buffett Part V: Company Management.)

Continue reading Companies that vanished: Bear Stearns -- a lesson learned?

Newspaper wrap-up: Verizon Wireless may acquire Alltel

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) and Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), is in talks to acquire Alltel Corp. in a deal valued at about $27B, the Wall Street Journal reported. If successful, the combined companies would create the largest cellphone company, and would be better positioned to compete against AT&T Inc (NYSE: T).
  • Gregory B. Penner, the son-in-law of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) chairman S. Robson Walton, is expected to join the company's board of directors, a move seen as the beginning of a leadership change at the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The Financial Times reported that Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek refused to provide funds to Bear Stearns shortly before Bear's sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). Temasek reportedly refused the request for practical and political reasons.
  • Russia's Interior Ministry questioned the head of BP Plc's (NYSE: BP) Russian oil venture as part of a criminal investigation into possible large-scale tax evasion, the Financial Times reported.

JP Morgan's Bear of a deal

When it comes to M&A, JP Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) Jamie Dimon is a pro. But, when he agreed to purchase the distressed Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC), he had to reinvent the playbook. After all, he had only a couple days to evaluate the transaction.

Well, there's an excellent piece on this in the Wall Street Journal [a paid publication]. Basically, Dimon realized that speed was critical -- as well as real-time communications. In a complex deal, things can implode easily.

For example, JP Morgan quickly setup fiber cables to connect its information technology (IT) system with that of Bear Stearns. This was critical to allow for the unloading of portfolio assets, which helped to reduce the overall risk of the deal.

In fact, JP Morgan has an army of advisers and employees that are combing through many documents and computer files. No doubt, there are thousands of reports trying to track the progress. And so far, it looks like things are running smoothly.

Continue reading JP Morgan's Bear of a deal

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 08:20 PM

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