This morning, I speculated that Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) might reunite with its former parent -- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). It looks like I was wrong about that. But the basic idea of finding a merger partner for Morgan Stanley is still alive. The New York Times reports that Wachovia (NYSE: WB) has been in talks with Morgan Stanley about a possible combination.

Morgan Stanley's stock fell another 24% today and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), about which I posted this morning, hired Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to find a buyer. So it could be that less than a decade after Congress repealed the Glass-Steagall act -- which prohibited investment and commercial banks from combining -- we will solve our current catastrophic financial problems by reconstituting the very thing that contributed so heavily to the Great Depression.

This looks to me like a desperate move that is only possible because commercial banks were required -- due to their regulations -- to hold more capital than investment banks. The investment banks were vulnerable because they bought such a huge volume of complex securities that nobody now wants to buy. And the decline in the value of these securities is wiping out the slim sliver of capital that they held.

DealBook reports that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon let out some bad news on JPMorgan's conference call today. Despite beating estimates, DealBook reported that JP Morgan's highest quality, so-called Prime mortgages, were, as Dimon said, "terrible, and we're sorry. We can say it eight times. It looks terrible."

Prime mortgages are not supposed to behave like subprime ones. But disappointment seems to be the big theme with the mortgage industry. Prime mortgages barely defaulted at all in the second quarter of 2007 -- JPMorgan wrote off 0.05% of them a year ago -- taking a $4 million charge. But in the same quarter of 2008, JPMorgan wrote off 0.91% -- and charged off $104 million.

And Dimon expects those Prime losses to triple -- to $300 million. If there's any good news, that $300 million is a mere 15% of the net income it earned this quarter. Still, it suggests the depth of the economic problems that lie ahead.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Reuters reports that today is a big one for bank and technology earnings. It looks like Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) will lose big and will try to soften the blow with an announcement about selling its 20% of Bloomberg LP for $4.5 billion to its founder, New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and a handful of big technology companies are expected to report profits. But will they be enough?

Meanwhile, how can we make sense of yesterday's 276 point rally on Wall Street? Nobody knows what happened, but theories abound: the price of oil fell -- possibly due to anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates to deal with inflation that is roaring out of control. Higher interest rates would strengthen the dollar, which would drive down the price of oil since it's traded in dollars. But I think yesterday's market was a short-covering frenzy. With the SEC foolishly squeezing the shorts, they needed to cover their bets that financials would fall further. Of course good news from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) didn't hurt.

Today's earnings -- with estimates courtesy of a Reuters analyst survey -- are likely to move the market. Here's a roundup:

• Merrill Lynch is expected to lose $1.94
• JPMorgan was expected to make $0.44, down 63% from 2007. At a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.4 and a P/E of 12 on earnings forecast to grow 31% to $3.34 in 2009, it looks cheap. CNNMoney reports it made 54 cents -- well ahead of expectations and its shares are up 5% in premarket.
• Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) will earn 47 cents a share, a 21% increase from last year. At a PEG ratio of 1.1 and a P/E of 15 on earnings forecast to grow 14.3% to $2.16 in 2009, it looks reasonably priced.