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Mortgage applications fall as home builders' stocks rise. Huh?

Jonathan Berr — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:10:00 EST

Filed under: Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL), Economic Data, Housing, Financial Crisis

Everywhere I go in the suburban wonderland where I live there seems to be a new housing development. When I visited my brother- and sister-in-law in a neighboring town, I must have passed seven of them. Apparently, word of the housing slowdown has not reached Burlington County, New Jersey.

This seems like madness. After all, the housing market is in the tank. Applications for mortgages fell 23% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended September 26, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association cited by Reuters. U.S. single-family home prices fell a record 16.3 percent in July from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes.

Consumer confidence is shaky -- heck, I am not feeling so confident even though I bought a car. Foreclosures are at record levels -- still. Banks are tightening their credit standards, making it difficult for borrowers without sterling credit to get loans or refinance their existing ones. That's what makes the rise in the home builder stocks even more baffling.

Shares of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) all gained double-digit percentages in the third quarter. The reason? Investors are chomping at the bit to call a bottom in the housing market. But I sat that's premature. S&P points out that many metropolitan areas are showing double-digit declines in home values. "There are signs of a slowdown in the rate of decline across the metro areas but no evidence of a bottom," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in a statement.

Continue reading Mortgage applications fall as home builders' stocks rise. Huh?

Mortgage applications fall as home builders' stocks rise. Huh? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The week in preview: A bottom for the housing sector?

Trey Thoelcke — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 12:30:00 EST

Filed under: Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Economic Data, Housing

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares~~, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they~~ are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. ~~Friday,~~ shares of Lennar ~~also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they~~ are down 6.4% year to date.

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The week in preview: A bottom for the housing sector? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 21 Sep 2008 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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CEO scandal? No worries, says Cramer: buy KB Homes

Jon Ogg — Mon, 13 Nov 2006 19:40:00 EST

Filed under: Analyst Reports, Management, Scandals, KB HOME (KBH), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN)

Options backdating scandals have felled many a tech CEO, and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) had the unlikely distinction of being an unlikely choice for an options backdating scandal. The company's CEO, Bruce Karatz, resigned today over stock options misdeeds. Jim Cramer (among others) didn't mourn him much, however, and said it's actually a good thing. Cramer says you have to go buy shares of KBH, because as the options scandal pressures a stock down, then it inches up, and then on the resolution of the scandal you must buy. With the CEO resigning, that is now out of the way.

Cramer said that even if you back-date options you have to think you are looking out favorably on the company down the road anyway. If a CEO was willing to take stock over cash then you should be inclined to take his lead. He thinks at 1.25 times book value that is a very cheap price. It has almost no debt. It could be a takeover target because it is so cheap. Cramer thinks private equity buyers could do it, or even a Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN).

KBH is widely and wrongly perceived as a California and Las Vegas homebuilder, but that isn't the whole truth, says Cramer. California is now 31% of sales and the company builds homes in 13 states. When California comes back, so will KBH. It also builds award-winning neighborhoods. He said he didn't like it when the shares were super-high, but now closer to lows he likes it.

CEO scandal? No worries, says Cramer: buy KB Homes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Nov 2006 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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