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The week in preview: Earnings season winds down

While the release of economic data doesn't stop next week (see economic schedule highlights below), the earnings season does wind down dramatically. Most of the S&P 500 companies already have reported on the past quarter, which means dismal earnings news is largely behind us, at least for a while. About the only companies of note expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters to report falling earnings this week are Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc. (NYSE: WEN), Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), and Steinway Musical Instruments Inc. (NYSE: LVB).

While PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM) and Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) quarterly profits are expected to be about the same as a year ago, Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ), Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (NYSE: KCP), Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) are expected to have swung to losses in the most recent quarter.

Continue reading The week in preview: Earnings season winds down

The week in preview: Macy's, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, JCPenney, and Kohl's

Update Nov. 26, 2008: See all 2008 Black Friday deals.

This week, some apparel and accessory producers and retailers offer a look at how they've been doing between early summer's economic stimulus spending and the coming holiday season. While Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) reported higher earnings last week, Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR), Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EBHI), Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (NYSE: KCP), and K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) all reported net losses as consumers pulled back on spending over the summer due to higher fuel prices and other economic worries. The expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial for such companies scheduled to report this week don't look much different; i.e., a bright spot or two among lower expectations overall.

Hip retailer Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post earnings 22.9% higher than a year ago, to $0.35 per share, on revenue of $475.9 million (+26.4%). The Philadelphia-based company already said that same-store sales in the quarter were 10% higher. Urban Outfitters has beat expectations in recent quarters, by 11.5% in the previous quarter, and analysts on average recommend buying URBN. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $16.61 per share on Friday, and are down 29.5% from a year ago. Other companies expected to report more modest earnings growth in the coming week include watch and accessory maker Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), parent of such discount retail chains as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. These three companies have tended to top analysts estimates in recent quarters, and Fossil and TJX ended the week near their 52-week lows.

While Los Angeles-based American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) had a strong second quarter, the casual wear maker is expected to report $0.13 per share earnings for the third quarter, the same as in the year-ago period. And analysts anticipate that Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) will report that profits fell 16.4% to $0.51 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion (+1.9%). Though same-store sales for October fell 9%, the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based company reaffirmed its third-quarter forecast. Kohl's has offered positive surprises in recent quarters, topping estimates by 5.6% in the previous quarter. The consensus recommendation remains to buy KSS. Shares have been climbing after reaching a 52-week low in late October, but are still down 32.8% from a year ago.

Continue reading The week in preview: Macy's, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, JCPenney, and Kohl's

Nike sells Starter brand to Iconix for $60 million

Nike (NYSE: NKE) has agreed to sell its Starter brand to Iconix (NASDAQ: ICON) for $60 million.

Starter is best known for its jackets bearing the logos of professional sports teams that were wildly popular during the early 1990s. As evidenced by the low price Nike is receiving for the brand, Starter has been in decline for years.

But the deal is consistent with the Iconix strategy of acquiring brands off the scrapheap and seeking to resuscitate them through licensing deals and clever marketing. Iconix does none of its own manufacturing, leaving it free to focus on maximizing brand value and selling licenses.

Iconix has been tremendously successful (take a look at the stock chart) with this approach, and owns brands including Rocawear, Danskin, London Fogg, Mudd, Joe Boxer, and Candie's.

Interestingly, Iconix founder and CEO Neil Cole is the less-known brother of Kenneth Cole, the founder and embattled CEO of Kenneth Cole (NYSE: KCP). Neil labored in anonymity for decades while his brother became a household name, but Iconix's market value has eclipsed that of Kenneth Cole. Still, numerous parties have called for a new CEO at that company.

Is Kenneth Cole on the way out as CEO? Is the company on the way in?

As its shares sag, Kenneth Cole (NYSE: KCP) is finding itself the target of much media coverage -- Everyone has an idea for how to right the ship!

Fortune
thinks it's time for the CEO leave the company he built: "Now there are signs that Cole, the company's chairman and chief executive as well as a notorious micro-manager, may finally be ready to step aside and relinquish day-to-day control to a more seasoned executive, though he would remain in an oversight role. A search is currently underway for such a person, and at least one major department store executive has been contacted about the job, Fortune has learned."

Barron's is optimistic: " ... Cole's shiny black leather jackets and funky, square-toed shoes remain must-have items for urbane 30-somethings, and the company is launching initiatives, including a new line of mens' sportswear, that promise to get its financial house in order and more than double the stock over the next three years."

The problem is that Kenneth Cole's sales have been pretty flat, and earnings are also on the decline. And with a price-sales ratio of 0.74, it's not cheaper than Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) is at 0.56, another classic couturier that has watched its share price tank.

One way to try to determine if a stock is really cheap is to ask whether it's a buyout target at the current price: I doubt that Kenneth Cole is. An investment in Kenneth Cole looks like a bet that the company will be able to turn itself around in the most fickle industry on the planet. That sounds more like gambling than investing.

Is Kenneth Cole a good fit? How about his brother?

Barron's thinks (subscription required) that it might be time to look at Kenneth Cole Productions (NYSE: KCP), which currently trades right around its four-year low. With its cash pile and strong same store sales growth, the company could be an attractive value -- a rarity in fashion stocks.

Recently, BusinessWeek looked at Iconix Brand Group (NASDAQ: ICON), the company of Kenneth Cole's younger brother Neil. Iconix has a very different business model though. The company's strategy is to acquire brands, and then license design, manufacturing, and distribution out to third parties. This leaves Iconix to focus on acquiring strong brands and developing innovative marketing campaigns. Judging from the company's robust profits and strong share price growth, it's a strategy that's working. The company currently owns brands including Candie's, Bongo, Badgley Mischka, Joe Boxer, Rampage, Mudd, London Fog, Mossimo, Ocean Pacific, and Danskin.

Interestingly, Kenneth Cole may be borrowing a bit from his brother's playbook, recently snapping up '80s icon Le Tigre for up to $25 million.

Which of these is a better buy here? The Iconix model seems to have a lot more appeal, as the company relies on license fees and is able to maintain a lean operation. The multibrand strategy also eliminates the risk of an essentially single-label fashion company.

But the contrarian in me wants to go with Kenneth Cole, the once-proud fighter whose fallen on (relatively) hard times. But given that they trade at similar valuations and Iconix has much more impressive growth, I'd probably go with the little brother.

Analyst initiations: KCP, TPX, BIIB, CBST and SHOR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kenneth Cole, Tempur Pedic, Biogen Idec, Cubist Pharma and ShoreTel were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • B. Riley started shares of Kenneth Cole (NYSE: KCP) with a Neutral rating and $21 target, citing a lack of near-term catalysts and the challenging environment for footwear companies.
  • William Blair resumed coverage of Tempur Pedic International (NYSE: TPX) with an Outperform rating, and finds the current valuation attractive for long-term investors.
  • Banc of America assumed coverage of Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) with a Neutral rating and $79 target, as they see less than 50% probability of a sale at current prices and expect shares to trade back to pre-announcement levels in the mid-to-high $60s if no sale is made.
  • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CBST) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating at CIBC, citing competitive headwinds.
  • ShoreTel (NASDAQ: SHOR) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Nollenberger on valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • UBS initiated CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) with a Buy rating and Rite Aid (RAD) and Walgreen (WAG) with Neutral ratings.
  • Caris initiated Starent Networks (NASDAQ: STAR) with an Average rating and $23 target.

Kenneth Cole has the eye of Le Tigre

Kenneth Cole Productions (NYSE: KCP) recently announced that it has acquired the Le Tigre brand for $13 million, plus an earn-out that could escalate the value of the deal to as much as $25 million.

Kenneth Cole will gain all intellectual property related to the company. CEO Kenneth Cole said that "We are pleased to add such a strong and internationally respected brand to our portfolio. We believe there is significant upside for the Company, specifically through various licensing opportunities as well as through the introduction of men's, women's and children's footwear."

I agree with him, and the price certainly looks right. Le Tigre was founded in 1977, and was big for awhile, before going out of production in the 1990s. Re-launched in 2003, Le Tigre has made a quick impact. Its products are sold in stores like Nordstrom and Lord & Taylor and, given the brand's status as a household name, there are likely to be numerous licensing opportunities.

I would say that a lot of lesser brands are receiving much higher valuations, and expect that, under the umbrella of a larger company like Kenneth Cole, Le Tigre will shine.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 03:23 AM

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