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Analyst downgrades: CSCO, KEX and FED

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, Kirby and First Fed Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Neutral from Buy after channel checks indicated orders are slowing, which gives them concern over the July quarter.
  • Stephens cut Kirby (NYSE: KEX) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they believe a good 2008 is already priced into shares and that the liquid barge industry cycle may be nearing a top.
  • First Fed Financial (NYSE: FED) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing credit quality deterioration.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Kirby Corporation: Share price defines bullish 'flag' pattern

Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) is the largest inland tank barge operator in the United States, transporting petrochemicals and agricultural chemicals via a fleet of some 900 barges and 240 towboats. The firm also owns and operates four ocean-going barge and tug units, transporting dry-bulk commodities along the coast. Further, Kirby is a leading provider of diesel engine services for the marine, rail, and industrial markets. Customers include Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

The company pleased investors last week when it announced that it was expecting Q4 EPS to exceed 62 cents. That topped the average Street expectation for a 61 cent per share profit. Management cited continued strength in Kirby's core businesses for the positive view. KEX shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the stock with five "strong buys," two "buys" and three "holds." Analysts see a 19% average annual growth rate through the next five years. The KEX PEG ratio (1.01), Sales Growth rate (14.36%), EPS Growth rate (33.33%) and Return on Assets (8.44%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 87% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $34.36 and $50.72. A stop-loss of $34.15 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to release fourth quarter results on January 30, after the close.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.

Kirby Corporation (KEX): A positive financial outlook

Efficient transportation of bulk industrial fluids is a tricky specialty. When plans call for movement by inland waterways, one of the best known U.S. specialists is an outfit down in Houston.

Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) is the largest inland tank barge operator in the United States, transporting petrochemicals and agricultural chemicals via a fleet of some 900 barges and 240 towboats. The firm also owns and operates four ocean-going barge and tug units, transporting dry-bulk commodities along the coast. Further, Kirby is a leading provider of diesel engine services for the marine, rail and industrial markets. Customers include Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

The company pleased investors earlier in the week, when it announced that it was expecting Q3 EPS to exceed sixty cents. That topped the average Street expectation for a 58 cent per share profit. Management cited strong demand and favorable pricing environments in all of its transportation markets for the positive view. Cantor Fitzgerald subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $53. The stock popped on the news and has since moved into a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the issue with five "strong buys," two "buys" and three "holds." Analysts see a 20% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The KEX PEG ratio (1.12), Price to Cash Flow ratio (13.25), Sales Growth rate (18.37%), EPS Growth rate (27.27%) and Return on Assets (7.98%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 89% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $30.54 and $44.90. A stop-loss of $38.40 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to release third quarter results in late October.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

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DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 06:05 AM

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