Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Cogdell Spencer (CSA) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Micron (MU) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• El Paso Electric (EE) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• MICROS Systems (MCRS) and Harmony Gold (HMY) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Verso Paper (VRS) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Sony (SNE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Noble Corp. (NE) and Baker Hughes (BHI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) and Smithfield Foods (SFD) to buy from hold at BB&T.

Only a year ago, the belief was that the private equity world was doomed. But as is common in the financial markets, this was big exaggeration. If anything, private equity firms have shown that they can adapt quite well.

Just look at KKR (KKR). In its latest quarter, the company posted a profit of $180.6 million or $0.86 per share. The consensus estimate was for $0.42 per share.

But private equity firms like to point to another metric: economic net income, which focuses on fees and gains from investments. This came to $714.6 million in the quarter. Yes, the private equity game can be wildly profitable.

Ford (F) overall option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

KKR & Co. (KKR) February 15 and 17 calls are active on total call volume of 9,000 contracts, compared to 3,000 puts. February call option implied volatility is at 43, March is at 41; above its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data. Active volume suggest traders positioning for larger price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst Upgrades

• Electronic Arts (ERTS) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Helix Energy (HLX) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Quest Software (QSFT) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• LTX-Credence (LTXC) to buy from hold at Needham.
• Anadarko (APC) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Walgreen (WAG) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Pericom (PSEM) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.

Since early September, shares of the major private equity firms Blackstone Group (BX) and KKR & Co. (KKR) have seen strong gains. Of course, part of the reason has been the bull move. But at the same time, the prospects for private equity are looking brighter. In fact, the upcoming year is shaping up to be strong for public offerings.

According to a report from Bloomberg.com, it looks like private-equity backed deals will account for roughly half the volume. And they will generally be massive transactions. Some that are on deck include HCA Holdings, Nielsen Holdings and Kinder Morgan.

If you are looking for clues telling you which stocks have a good chance of increasing in value, you might want consider watching what insiders are doing. After all, talk is cheap, but when insiders put their own money on the line, you should sit up and take note.

Coca-Cola (KO) topped the insider-buying charts for the week ending July 9th as insiders snapped up 270,000 shares of company stock at a market value of $16,899,786. During the past six months, insiders have increased their overall holdings in the company by 3.15% and now own 0.55% of KO stock.

Del Monte (DLM - option chain) shares are rising today on reports that the company is in advanced discussions with KKR (KKR) regarding a possible takeover of DLM. KKR is offering $18.50 per share for DLM, according to a Reuters report. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DLM.

DLM opened this morning at $17.46. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.07 and a high of $17.72. As of 12:05, DLM is trading at $17.20 up $1.49 (9.5%). The chart for DLM looks bullish.

Analyst Upgrades

• Qualcomm (QCOM) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• JPMorgan upgraded Allegheny Tech (ATI) to overweight from neutral.
• NetApp (NTAP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Estee Lauder (EL) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Citigroup upgraded Suntech (STP) to hold from sell.

Analyst Upgrades

• BB&T (BBT) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• Amylin (AMLN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Morton's Restaurant (MRT) to outperform from market perform.
• Check Point (CHKP) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Excel Maritime (EXM) to buy from hold.
• JinkoSolar (JKS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Compellent (CML) to overweight from neutral.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Crane (CR) to buy from neutral.
• Goldman upgraded Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to conviction buy from buy and American Electric (AEP) to buy from neutral.
• Motorola (MOT) was upgraded due to increasing carrier support by MKM Partners.
• Under Armour (UA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.

JPMorgan (JPM) closed down 4.1% Friday on mortgage lender practices. November 40 calls are active 8K contracts. November put option implied volatility is at 33, January is at 37, versus its 26-week average of 34, according to Track Data. Large option volume suggests traders positioning for price movement.

Seagate (STX) closed up 18% on reports the company is in acquisition talks with TPG Capital and KKR & Co. (KKR). November option implied volatility is at 45, January is at 38, versus its 26-week average of 46, according to Track Data. Large call volume suggests traders positioning for upside price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company (KKR) is preparing for an initial public offering next week, and if you are smart, you will steer clear.

After a three-year struggle to make this IPO a reality, company founders Henry R. Kravis and George R. Roberts -- who each own 13% of the company -- are excited to see their shares actually start trading on July 15 on the NYSE. After all, they each stand to make nearly $800 million on the venture.

Individual investors, on the other hand, should avoid this IPO. Here's why.

At midday this afternoon Harley-Davidson (HOG) was more than 5% higher, trading above $28 thanks to rumors of a potential leveraged buyout. Reportedly, private-equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) was named as the potential purchaser. That said, both HOG and KKR have declined to comment on the rumor. Thanks to the rumor, trading has been brisk across both the stock and options markets.

If you're looking to buy into an upswing post-recession, it doesn't look like the private equity market will be on your list. Valuations didn't fall as much as you might think, meaning that the bargains you usually find during a downturn just aren't showing up this time.

In the leveraged buyout market, prices were around 25% higher, on average, than they were in 2001, when the dotcom economy fell apart, according to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary & Data. And transactions closed in the past three months have hit heir highest levels since the private equity market peaked in 2007.

Says Christopher O'Brien, president for U.S. and Europe of Investcorp Bank BSC, another "golden era" isn't coming. He tells Bloomberg News, "There's a lot of pressure to put investors' money to work now, and valuations are still high. It's a seller's market."

About a month ago, Dollar General (DG) pulled off a successful IPO, selling 34.1 million shares at $21 each. Investors were attracted to the company's long-term growth path as well as the trend for bargain-hunting for consumers.

This week, Dollar General reported its quarterly results. No surprise, the good times haven't gone away.

Could it be that private-equity buyouts are making a comeback? There are certainly signs of a return. Just last week, TPG and the Canada Pension Plan agreed to shell out $4 billion for IMS Health (RX).

This week, we have another interesting deal: KKR and General Atlantic will buy TASC for $1.65 billion. TASC is the consulting unit of Northrop Grumman (NOC).

Actually, the military giant had little choice but to unload the division because of a conflict of interest. How can you provide unbiased consulting to the U.S. government as well as sell weapons to it?