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U.S. initial jobless claims hit 26-year high

Yet another ignominious data point for the job market, and by extension, for the U.S. economy and the stock market.

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 30,000 to 586,000 for the week ending December 20, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday -- the highest initial weekly jobless claims total since 1982.

"Any level above 500,000 is high, but now we're soaring toward 600,000. This has to be reversed soon, or the unemployment rate is going to sail over 8% by the time the recovery starts," economist Peter Dawson said.

The U.S. unemployment rate currently is 6.7%. An 8% unemployment rate "would be very bad news for corporate revenue and earnings, and the stock market, in addition to increasing social service costs of the states," Dawson said.

Continue reading U.S. initial jobless claims hit 26-year high

Is unemployment really above 10%?

If people don't know this, it is worth pointing out. If they do, it is worth repeating. Unemployment in the U.S. is well above 10%. The government numbers do not include those people who are "no longer looking for work" or those who are not receiving unemployment payments.

According to The New York Times, "The Labor Department does publish an alternate measure of unemployment, which counts part-time workers who want full-time work, as well as anyone who has looked for work in the last year."

That would put the total "unemployment" rate closer to 13%.

It raises the issue of how close the U.S. is to the much higher rates of joblessness in the Great Depression. The number of people without work rose to 25%. The government did not make the distinctions then by subtracting people who were part-time.

If, using the government's yard stick, unemployment in the U.S. gets to the double digits next year, the economy is closer to a depression than it might appear.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Oil prices move back higher today

After a brief selloff yesterday, oil prices have been moving higher in today's action. Buyers have come back into the market today and pushed prices up as high as $95.00 earlier in the session, Prices nd are now up $1.20 to $94.69.

The main reason why prices have turned higher today is optimism about the economy created by this morning's better than expected October payroll report. According to the U.S. Labor Department, October saw a 166,000 increase in payrolls, which was more than twice the 80,000 increase that analysts expected.

The better-than-expected payroll report was enough to create some optimism of the overall economy, and put some recession fears to rest. According to Michael Lynch, who is president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc., "It suggests that concerns about the economy ... are overblown a little bit."

Continue reading Oil prices move back higher today

October job growth strong, but only in the lower-paying service industries

WaitstaffEveryone's cheering today the strong payroll report released by the Labor Department, but if you take a closer look at the numbers you'll understand why so many middle class folks do not think the labor market offers them any good news. While the government reported that unemployment held steady at 4.7% and 166,000 jobs were created, you must look at where those jobs were created and where jobs were lost to get the true picture.

Job growth was created in the service sector, which added 190,000 jobs - led by food services (37,000 jobs - primarily at restaurants), employment services (34,000 jobs) and health care (34,000 jobs). Job losses were seen in the higher paying manufacturing sector where 21,000 jobs were lost in October and 203,000 jobs have been lost in the last year. Employment at banks and mortgage brokers dropped 5,000 where 56,000 people lost jobs since February and more layoffs are expected as the mortgage mess continues to grow.

Richard Moody, Chief Economist for Mission Residential, also found that 21,500 jobs were lost in retail trade during October, which he said is the third consecutive monthly decline. In his October NonFarm Report, he wrote, this "is a sign that retailers are not expecting great things in the coming months."

Earnings also were flat. Just a 0.2 cent gain in average hourly wage to $17.58 an hour with no gain in the average workweek of 33.8 hours.

If you're in the top executive ranks you're pay may look good, but for the middle class these numbers don't show much hope of earning a better paycheck.

Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including the Complete Idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score due out in December.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) slides on jobless data

Sears logoSears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) -- as well as most other retail outlets -- is taking a dive this morning after the Labor Department reported the biggest increase in the number of jobless claims since February. Worries of a weak consumer environment going into the holiday season have weighed heavily on retail, with several stocks across the sector trading at new 52-week lows today. Sears is hit particularly hard by reports like these because the company does not report its interim data between earnings releases. All investors in SHLD have to go on in the quarterly report, similar companies' performances and broad economic data. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SHLD.

After hitting a one-year high of $195.18 in April, the stock slipped to a 52-week low of $123.39 in September. This morning, SHLD opened at $134.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $132.12 and a high of $134.75. As of 11:05, SHLD is trading at $132.61, down $2.61 (-1.9%). The chart for SHLD looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.


Continue reading Sears Holdings (SHLD) slides on jobless data

U.S. jobs rebound in September, but long-term trend is key

September's U.S. job report released Friday reinforced two economics adages. Namely: 1) it's best to not put too much confidence in the U.S. Labor Department's initial monthly job statistic, as it will undoubtedly be revised; and 2) regarding job creation/reduction, it's best to use a 3-month or 6-month average, as it gives a more-complete and more-accurate picture of hiring conditions.

For example, in September's report, which indicated that 110,000 jobs were created -- more than analysts had expected -- the U.S. Labor Department also its revised the August job report to indicate that 89,000 jobs were created, up from a 4,000-job loss the Labor Department reported in its initial August tally.

Wall Street was encouraged by September's upside jobs surprise with the Dow gaining about 85 points to 14,063 in early Friday afternoon trading.

Continue reading U.S. jobs rebound in September, but long-term trend is key

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 02:09 PM

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