For Boeing (NYSE: BA), there's more hinging on today's machinists' contract vote than the company's primary labor costs over the next three years.

"The fate of future orders for the 787 Dreamliner could weigh in the balance," stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday.

About 27,000 members in the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union in Washington State, Oregon and Kansas will vote today concerning whether to accept a three-year contract, The Associated Press reported Wednesday. Contact vote results are expected Wednesday night.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) rose 90 cents to $66.79 in Wednesday morning trading.

Despite Boeing's offer of a $5,000 signing bonus and a pay increase totaling 11% over the 3-year contract, its passage is hardly a slam dunk, Bauer said. "I know the media likes to portray every major union contract as a big deal, but this one really is a big issue. There are a lot of nervous parties watching this vote, parts suppliers to Boeing, businesses in the affected regions, and of course, almost every major airline around the world," Bauer said. "A protracted strike at Boeing would jeopardize several commercial airplane delivery timetables."

Work stoppage could hurt 787 orders

This is not the way to kick off the fall production season, typically a time when companies introduce new products and plans. Boeing (NYSE: BA) could lose up to $3.5 billion per month in revenue if a threatened strike by a machinist union occurs next week, USAToday reported Friday.

The potential action by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers could also delay the 787 Dreamliner program and other aircraft programs. About 27,000 machinists in Washington state, Oregon and Kansas would be affected.

Boeing's latest contract offer calls for an 11% pay increase in annual increments of 5%, 3%, and 3%, Bloomberg News reported Friday. Machinists would also get a $2,500 payment if they approve the new contract by September 3.

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday Boeing "will probably have to increase its offer to the IAM, given what's at stake for Boeing."

"Boeing is in a position where it can increase its labor cost base. Revenue remains strong, with large backorders," Bauer said. "Those facts, plus the fact that Boeing can not afford any more delays in the 787 program, means the IAM has the upper hand in these contract negotiations. I'm sure the machinists don't want a strike, either, so my call would be for Boeing to up its pay raise offer to 6%, 5%, and 5% for a 16% pay increase." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.

What's good for Ford may also be good for General Motors and Chrysler, Canada-wise.

The Canadian Auto Workers have voted to ratify a three-year contract with Ford, a pact the union expects General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler to match, The Associated Press reported Monday.

The deal, which freezes wages and reduces vacation pay but avoids changes to base wages, was approved by 78% of the membership.

Ford (NYSE: F)'s shares fell 2 cents to $8.23 on the news during Monday morning trading.

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Monday the deal, in his interpretation, represents "a qualified win for both sides. The Canadian workers got most of what they wanted, which mainly was an avoidance of the two-tier wage system that Ford is implementing in the United States," Felson said. "But Ford also got the wage freeze and vacation changes critical to bringing Canadian labor costs down."

Further, while both GM and Chrysler, which are set to begin talks with the CAW, may initially view the Ford deal less-favorably, Felson said he expects both to negotiate similar deals with the CAW.

"The downside is GM and Chrysler accepting a deal that's slightly more generous than they'd want to offer," Felson said. "But the upside is avoiding a major production shut-down during a critical transition period for the automakers, as they adjust their fleets to compete better with more-efficient foreign vehicles."