SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), which warned earlier in the month, made comments in yesterday's Q4 earnings conference call point to Larry Ellison's prognostication of SAP's demise being more and more correct.

Back in September, after reporting a blow-out quarter, Oracle Corporation's (NASDAQ: ORCL) Ellison said SAP is a number of years behind. Ellison went as far to say that if Oracle doesn't screw up, SAP is in big trouble.

Since Ellison made those comments, more and more evidence is coming out supporting his view. Since late 2006, SAP has reported poor results and IBM has reported weak results in businesses that work closely with SAP.

SAP said it is going to spend an extra 300 to 400 million euros over the next eight quarters for new software development. This further supports Ellison's claim of SAP beginning behind the curve.

Oracle's stock had a good year in 2006 with industry spending in a lull. But now it appears the lull is over and Oracle could be off to the races again.

Before the U.S. market closed yesterday, SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), the German-based software giant, reported a big miss with the stock dropping over $5 in the last hour of trading.

Oracle Corp's (NASDAQ: ORCL) revenue also came up soft in its last quarter, but not as soft as SAP's. Meaning: I'd stay with Oracle and avoid SAP. Oracle's numbers were better, but more importantly, it appears its strategy of bringing together high-end vertical software applications through acquisition is right on target.

In a September earnings conference call, Oracle CEO Larry Ellison all but said goodbye to SAP. Ellison said that SAP is at least two years behind Oracle and suggested that if Oracle did not make some big missteps, it would be tough for SAP to catch up. It appears from SAP's results, that Ellison's comments might have some truth to them.

Price weakness in Oracle's stock might be a good buying opportunity. While Oracle reported a weak quarter, it appears the economy and corporate spending are fine. That means spending should pick up for Oracle's products during the year.

Over the past few years, Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) has been a top-performing software company on Wall Street. Basically, it delivers its software via the Web, which has been a formula for stunning growth.

Well, expect similar companies to go public this year (especially in light of the pick-up in the IPO market). One prospect? NetSuite.

Like Salesforce.com, the company is a pioneer in on-demand software (the software helps companies manage things like payroll, ecommerce, customers and so on). What's more, the company's majority investor is Oracle's CEO and co-founder, Larry Ellison.

This week, NetSuite announced that it has named Billy Beane to its board. He is the star of the popular book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning An Unfair Game. It tells the story of how -- as the GM of the Oakland A's – he used innovative statistical techniques to manage talent (without having the luxury of a payroll like the Yankee's).

Perhaps he can bring some of his statistical magic to NetSuite?

What's more, hiring board members is usually a sign a company is preparing for an IPO. After all, because of Sarbanes-Oxlely, a company is required to have a majority of independent board members.

Interestingly, a recent article in BusinessWeek speculates that NetSuite is indeed an IPO prospect.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

The 10 highest paid CEOs are amply rewarded -- earning an average of $58 million in the last year -- but they are not producing equally: three bargain CEOs created shareholder value on the cheap, three hogs added shareholder value but got paid too much to do so and four value destroyers were paid big bucks to lose shareholder value. Finding those bargain CEOs could be a great way to look for investment opportunities if you think that they can keep creating shareholder value at the same rate as they have in the past. (A map of the location of these CEOs is here.)

I calculate that in the last year, these 10 CEOs presided over the creation of $12 billion in stock market value -- their $58 million average CEO pay works out to 0.5% of that $12 billion in additional stock market value. But lest you get too excited, the average stock price of the 10 companies increased 12% while the S&P 500 rose 15%.

If CEOs were paid for value creation, I would expect all 10 of these companies to be contributing to that $12 billion in increased stock market value. But the reality is quite different -- four of the 10 destroyed shareholder value in the last year while the remaining six increased it. Who are the bargain CEOs, hogs, and value destroyers?

Last week Microsoft's Bill Gates expressed regret about being the world's richest man. When I read this, I was reminded of the expression, "be careful what you wish for, you might get it."

Before launching into an analysis of how Gates could be toppled from his throne, it's worth noting that I've admired Microsoft and wondered whether it's lost its elbow room. I praised Microsoft's ability to adapt to change in two of my books, The Technology Leaders and Value Leadership. But in the last several years, Microsoft seems to have lost its mojo as I noted in these interviews by Red Herring and The Washington Post.

Here's a surprise. The biggest threat to Gates's top rank on the Forbes 400 comes not from the number two on the list, but from numbers 15 and 16. According to that September 2005 list, Gates's net worth totaled $51 billion. Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett came in second at $49 billion. And he was followed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen ($22.5B), Dell's Michael Dell ($18B) and Oracle's Larry Ellison ($17B). Spots six through 12 were occupied by descendants of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton, Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer, and heiresses from Cox Enterprises and Fidelity.