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Option update: Las Vegas Sands (LVS) volatility elevated

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) -- volatility elevated. LVS, a leading international developer of multi-use integrated resorts operated by Sheldon Adelson, is recently trading near its all time high. LVS has a market cap of $41.5 billion. Unconfirmed chatter is circulating that LVS could announce a potential secondary stock offering. LVS October option implied volatility of 48 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Build a Bear Workshop (NYSE: BBW) -- volatility elevated into EPS and Strategic Alternatives. BBW, a company providing make-your-own stuffed animal, interactive retail entertainment experience, is recently up 40 cents to $17.44. BBW is expected to report EPS on 10/18. On 9/11, Buckingham Research reiterated its Accumulate rating on BBW and lowered its price target on BBW to $25 from $29. Buckingham Research says, "the company is addressing weakness in the top-line with more frequent introductions of new product and more targeted marketing." BBW announced on 6/28/07 it retained Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to assist in potential strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value. BBW September option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: volatility Up as Sheldon Adelson opens Venetian Macao

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) volatility Elevated into Macao Resort Hotel opening. LVS opened the Venetian Macao Resort Hotel today. Sheldon Adelson, chairman & chief executive officer, said "it is no overstatement to say that the opening of Venetian Macao represents a massive paradigm shift for Macao and the future of tourism development in Asia." Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) says "the scale is enormous and the detail impressive." LVS over all option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA) implied volatility Elevated at 43. ASCA, a Las Vegas based gaming and Entertainment Company, is recently down $0.55 to $28.39. ASCA has a market cap of $1.6 billion with long term debt of $878 million. ACSA over all option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Dubai gambles on Las Vegas (MGM)

Over the past decade or so, Dubai has placed big bets on its ability to become the world's top tourist destination. Now Dubai is taking its plans to sin city itself, Las Vegas. Dubai World, which is the investment holding firm of the Dubai government, has decided to invest $5 billion in MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) for a 9.5% stake.

In addition, Dubai World will also be getting a 50% interest in the yet to be finished CityCenter development project.

Continue reading Dubai gambles on Las Vegas (MGM)

A numbers game: Wedding industry can't wait for 7-7-07

Sometimes, the numbers just wink at you. Ask any gambler. Or ask one of the many people scheduled to tie the knot this coming Saturday, July 7, 2007. They might tell you that there's a little extra magic to getting married on 7/7/7, a date that only comes around once a century. And heck, when it comes to marriage, half of which end in divorce these days, every little bit helps.

Seven seas, Seven Virtues, seven days of the week, all named for Roman Gods. Seven Dwarves. Lots of sevens in the Bible. Lots of good reasons folks think this date will be especially lucky.

The $80 billion American wedding industry doesn't ask why. It's simply gearing up for boffo boxoffice.

According to CNN, marriage planners nationwide are reporting huge demand to take the plunge on this auspicious date. Churches are booked, dress makers are working overtime, and just try getting a Limo that weekend.

Continue reading A numbers game: Wedding industry can't wait for 7-7-07

Kerkorian dumps plans for joint venture with Sol Kerzner

Today's Wall Street Journal reports that Kirk Kerkorian has dropped his plans to acquire two of MGM Mirage's (NYSE: MGM) gems, the Bellagio Hotel and the $7.4 billion project City Center, opting instead for a joint venture with Sol Kerzner to create a multi-billion dollar resort at the north-end of the Las Vegas strip.

That news today sent MGM shares down more than 10% in pre-market trading. The stock currently sits at $80.97, down 6.4% this afternoon.

Kerkorian's announcement to acquire the Bellagio and City Center last month seemed to put all of MGM in play, with the company forming a special committee to advise management on how to proceed. Shares of MGM Mirage -- which Mr. Kerkorian owns a 56% stake in -- have jumped as much as 27% since last month's offer.

The real question: Is MGM Mirage still a takeover target? There are a number of analysts who remain convinced that MGM is a prime candidate, possibly by private-equity players looking for land deals. MGM owns a third or more of the Vegas Strip and the land could fetch a pretty penny -- BMO Capital believes a successful bid for MGM could be worth more than $100 a share.

But what about Kerkorian? Dana Cimilluca, a writer for the WSJ, considers Kerkorian's decisions a sign that it may be time for him to retire. She says that Kerkorian has now swung and missed three times: The unsuccessful attempt to ally with another auto maker--General Motors (NYSE: GM), the failed Chrysler (NYSE: DCX) bid and now the retreat from MGM's two gems.

That may seem harsh, but hey, the man is 90.

Kerkorian bails on MGM Mirage property purchase

Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. has dropped its attempt to cherry-pick MGM Mirage's Bellagio and CityCenter properties after the corporation announced a new deal with Bahamas casino owner Sol Kerzner to build a multi-billion dollar casino complex on the Strip in Las Vegas.

Many thought that Kerkorian's intention was to nudge MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM) onto the sale block, to see what his 56% of the remaining company assets might fetch in a buyout-friendly climate. The latest deal, with its implications for increased debt and holdings value, apparently caused him to rethink this move, at least for the moment.

MGM Mirage already has a huge footprint in Las Vegas, but remains very aggressive (i.e. carrying a considerable debt load) in pursuing further growth. Its new $725 million Detroit casino is scheduled to open late this year. The CityCenter complex in Las Vegas has tied up $7.4 billion and won't be ready until 2009, and MGM has put another $1 billion into a cooperative venture, MGM Grand Macau, opening later this year. It is also in talks about another huge development on the Cotai strip in Macau.

Those punters who jumped on the bandwagon at the initial announcement of Kerkorian's interest in Bellagio are jumping back off this morning. MGM Mirage stock was down more than 10% in early trading.

Should casinos be judged for reaching out to Asians?

It is not a secret that casinos have been investing a lot of resources into catering to their Asian clients, but should it be acceptable for them to actively and aggressively try to pull Asians into their gaming facilities? According to any article from The New York Times, the recent promotional blitz by Las Vegas toward the Asian community has created emotions ranging from concern to downright extreme anger.

There are basically two ways in which Las Vegas casinos are able to lure in and keep the business of wealthy Asian (mostly newly rich Chinese) and Asian-Americans. One is by creating an enjoyable experience inside the casinos. Second is targeted advertising to the Asian demographic.

The first method strives to create an "Asian friendly" environment inside casinos. This method is one that I have absolutely no problem with what-so-ever. The first and most important rule of thumb in running a successful business is to "know your customer," and casinos can not be blamed for spotting the tremendous amount of cash inflows from their Asian clients and creating a more "user friendly" environment.

The second method involves special societal-based advertising campaigns. This is where the slippery slope of ethics begins, and I for one, have a hard time blaming the casinos for their marketing campaigns. The article gives example of Las Vegas and Atlantic City casinos using advertisements in Asian dialects; advertisements placed in community newspapers in nearby cities; and mailers written in a recipient's native language.

Continue reading Should casinos be judged for reaching out to Asians?

This week's rumor round-up: Will Amazon overpay for Netflix?

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX)

Amazing. Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN), that big online retailer, sees the flix for the net. The shares keep rising for the online DVD rental company-up about 15%, highest since January-- even if their discs do come a little scratched. More than that though is while new subscribers are coming on; it's not exactly going gangbusters. Still, 6.8M is a whole lot of subscribers. Will Amazon, or someone else, overpay?

Rackable Systems Inc (NASDAQ: RACK)

Which came first: The ongoing takeover rumors or the higher stock price? Or was it that Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) is said to be after Rackable, a provider of servers and storage products for high density data center deployments. Rack it up.

Feldman Mall Properties Inc (NYSE: FMP)

Word is that this real estate investment trust will look for a sale, combo or merger. They said the venerable firm of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. will help them "explore strategic alternatives." Then the stock went up.

STILL FLYING AROUND

Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP)


Dennis Gomes, whose name surfaced in March, is a one time gaming exec and regulator. He's signed a confidentiality agreement to have a look see at the firm's Atlantic City casinos. Separately, Las Vegas' Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) has also been mentioned as a possible contender.

YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ: YRCW)

The CEO of this Kansas-based transportation service provider has been quoted as saying that a takeover is possible. An LBO is likely. This week the shares have actively been trading up.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR)

Imagine a dollar tree where the stock keeps going up, up, up. Well, here it is, once again, a subject of takeover talk.

BUZZ

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X): Russia's Severstal may be prowling around...Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP): Takeover candidate's stock is sharply higher... Micron Technology Inc (NYSE: MU): Blackstone has interest...Ameristar Casinos Inc (NASDAQ: ASCA): A hot stock and takeover rumors abound...Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA): Remains an LBO candidate...The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD): The student loan business is booming and earnings growth is strong, but who would buy it?...Marriott International Inc (NYSE: MAR): A target? But where's the movement?...Oakley Inc (NYSE: OO) as a target has been around and around, and now some say it will be bought by Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX).

Kerkorian's new target: Kerkorian

After dueling with Daimler and losing again, Kirk Kerkorian has decided to take on someone his own size: himself. In a move that has analyst's opinions all over the map, Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corporation announced it will negotiate with MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM) for its two best properties. The Bellagio and the under-construction CityCenter could fetch as much at $12 billion.

The odd part of the story is that Kerkorian owns 56% of MGM Mirage. Other stockholders are not responding well to what they perceive as an attempt to cherry-pick the company's assets, questioning Kerkorian's motives. Some suggest he is trying to force the company onto the sales block, drooling at the potential price in light of Harrah's recent $17.1 billion sale.

He could also be hoping to play both ways; strip off the most lucrative assets, then hope the remaining package is still alluring enough to draw venture interest. Left on the table for the moment is MGM's Grand Macau, possibly signaling Kerkorian's uncertainty about that market.

A key part of this deal is MGM's CityCenter development, a casino-retail-hotel- condominium complex that will cost an estimated $7.9 billion. With the recent cancellation of other Vegas high-roller condo developments, CityCenter is either well poised to take advantage of the Vegas property boom or vulnerable to the slackening housing market. Probably the former.

The market has shown love for the idea, so far, jumping up 30% by midmorning on the news.

Option update 5-18-07: IGT, CRM up on takeover chatter

International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) implied volatility and call volume Jumps on Chatter.
  • IGT specializes in the design, manufacturer and marketing of computerized gaming equipment. IGT is recently up $1.28 to $39.18 on unconfirmed takeover chatter.
  • IGT call option volume of 12,038 contracts compares to put volume of 576 contracts. IGT June option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) option volume heavy; volatility flat on Speculative chatter.
  • CRM, an on demand customer relationship management applications company, is recently up $0.76 to $43.83 on take over speculation.
  • CRM reported first quarter revenue of $162 million yesterday. GROW has a Buy rating on CRM.
  • CRM June option implied volatility of 40 is below its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.
Option volume leaders today are: Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Elan Corp. (NYSE: ELN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Upgrade Summary 5-15-07: AMD, DCX, GM, LVS and MAT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: General Motors Corp (GM), DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Mattel, Inc (MAT), Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Lehman upgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Equal-Weight from Underweight with a $30 target following the Chrysler sale as the firm believes GM will now take a tougher stance on its labor negotiations.
  • UBS upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Neutral on the Chrysler sale and valuation. The broker believes the core Daimler unit looks inexpensive.
  • Mattel Inc (NYSE: MAT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Matrix USA to reflect increasing sales growth.
  • ThinkEquity upgraded shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Buy from Sell as the firm believes AMD could beat expectations for the next several quarters, likely affecting NVDA's chipset business and driving shares higher.
  • ThinkEquity upgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Sell citing strong Dell Inc (DELL) orders. Following Nvidia's comments on its quarterly report and channel checks, the firm now believes AMD is poised to beat expectations for the next several quarters and is truly a going concern...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 5-08-07: AA, LVS, MRVL, SLE and UA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alcoa Inc (AA), Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) Under Armour, Inc (UA), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) and QLogic Corp (QLGC) topped today's list of noteworthy upgrades:
  • RBC Capital upgraded Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) to Sector Perform from Underperform following the bid by Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL).
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd (NASDAQ MRVL) was upgraded to buy from Neutral with a $23 target at Oppenheimer based on valuation and the improvements made to HDD PC/Desktop.
  • Morgan Stanley raised shares of Under Armor Inc (NYSE: UA) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $47 target, based on valuation and long-term growth.
  • Stifel upgraded shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to Buy from Hold with a $100 target citing valuation.
  • Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of QLogic Corp (NASDAQ: QLGC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and expectations for strong sequential growth to resume in 2H07.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Casinos crap out

Chances are if you have ever walked into a casino, you learned pretty quickly that the house always wins. At least that's what we tell ourselves as we walk back to our rooms wondering what happened to last months paycheck. But today the rules have shifted and it's the casinos that are getting hit.

The pain started last night with Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), which traded down about 6% after hours and hasn't been able to make up much of that fall in today's market. The company reported that its first quarter net profit dropped 25% from the same period last year. It blames the lower profit numbers on a jump in expenses that resulted from planned openings of a couple new casinos. The company has new casinos opening up in Macau, Singapore and the United States. With about an hour left in Thursday's session, Las Vegas Sands is currently trading down 4.6% to $84.46.

Casinos continued to take a hit with poor earnings this morning from MGM MIRAGE (NYSE: MGM). For its quarter, MGM was able to see Q1 profit rise by 17%, but the company came up short where it counted and only posted earnings per share of 55 cents per share, which fell below the 63 cents that analysts had been expecting to see out of the casino operator. According to Matthew Jacob, an analyst at Majestic Research, the larger casinos are starting to feel the pinch of rising gasoline prices and interest rates. MGM is currently trading down 4.5% on the day, trading down to $65.21 with one hour left in trading.

Continue reading Casinos crap out

Las Vegas Sands seeks $5 billion in new capital

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) announced it intends to raise another $5 billion via a domestic credit facility. The money will be used to refinance current debt, provide operating capital and fund current development projects such as the Cotai Strip project in China.

Preliminary first quarter 2007 figures for LAV's Las Vegas properties showed a 7% bump in hotel revenues over same quarter '06, with average daily rates at its flagship Venetian in Las Vegas up $26 over the previous year. The hotel continues to enjoy almost 100% occupancy.

Vegas casino revenues continued to grow as well, up 24%. EBITDAR for LAV's Las Vegas property was estimated up between $6-11 million over first quarter 2006's $101.1 million.

The company expects its new Palazzo complex, targeting top-end customers, to come online later this year, adding 7,000 rooms and 2.3 million square feet of convention space to Las Vegas Sands' holdings. Also opening this summer is the company's $2.4 billion Venetian Macau.

LAV's stock has been suffering over the past few months, as investors express uncertainty about the potential for overdevelopment of the far East market. Rolling up another $5 billion of debt may not help bolster confidence, unless the company can convince investors they have great prospects in sight.

Complete first quarter numbers are expected around May 3.

Newspaper wrap-up 2-26-07: Sam Zell interested in Tribune

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • According to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources close to the situation, Las Vegas casino company Station Casinos Inc (NYSE: STN) has entered into a definitive agreement with Fertitta Colony Partners to be acquired by the company for about $5.5B and taken private.
  • The Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column reported that many investors are getting cautious on REITs, saying "If Sam Zell is selling, I should too." The article advises to be cautious, and not to flood the REIT market, but not to be too worried by these signs.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • In more Sam Zell related news, the Chicago real estate billionaire who just sold his office development company for $39B wants to buy the Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB), according to the New York Times.
  • Also according to the New York Times, Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) is expected to name Gary Crittenden as its new CFO, replacing Sallie Krawcheck.
  • According to Bloomberg, Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is expected to receive an LBO offer of up to $54B, or $60 per share, from a private equity consortium.
  • According to the Sunday U.K. Times, EQT is close to acquiring Hilton Hotels Corporation (NYSE: HLT) Scandic Hotels for around $1B.
  • The Associated Press, citing an Iranian State-run radio, is reporting that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran will move forward with its nuclear program despite international demands to halt the uranium enrichment.

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Symbol Lookup
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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
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S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 02:17 PM

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