With the markets still in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind Procter & Gamble is worth a review.

If General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) is 'the mutual fund in one company,' then The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) is the 'consumer products aisle' in one company. Pick a brand, any brand. PG has about 300, including names you know well: Crest toothpaste, Folgers coffee, Bounty paper towels, Tide detergent, Gillette shavers - - PG's core product line contains brands that are entrenched in U.S. culture... and entrenched in U.S. consumer buying patterns.

Procter & Gamble says its mission is "to provide superior quality and value to the world's consumers," and both revenue and consumer satisfaction surveys suggest it is 'on message,' to borrow a political campaign strategy phrase.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecast for 2008 growth in its 30-nation membership to "less than 2%" -- the lowest growth rate since 2003 -- due to fallout from the U.S. economic slowdown, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Sixth months ago, the OCED predicted that 2008 growth in the 30-nation zone would total 2.3%, following 2.7% growth in 2007.

The growth revision marks a substantial shift in OECD expectations. Earlier, the OECD predicted that member economies would be to withstand the U.S. economic slowdown without considerable negative consequence. That outlook, along with economic analysis from other countries, helped form the basis for the so-called 'decoupling thesis' -- where Europe and other developed countries race along unscathed by the doldrums in the world's largest economy.

A disagreement among pilots camps on seniority has led to the cancellation of board meetings regarding a potential Delta Air Lines/Northwest Airlines merger agreement, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required).

However, independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday that he expects the issue to be resolved soon and merger efforts to move forward.

"The pilots' seniority item is always the toughest hurdle in airline talks, so a delay and a few hiccups here is not unusual," Bauer said.

Delta's (NYSE: DAL) shares declined 20 cents to $15.93, while Northwest (NYSE: NWA) fell 70 cents to $16.12 on the news in Friday mid-day trading.

The pilot talks involve two branches of the same Air Line Pilots Association, or about 11,000 pilots, The Journal reported.

The economic landscape -- particularly for the United States -- certainly looks different than it did 30 or 40 years ago.

Globalization, the internet, and the rise of a second major economic power in Asia are all developments that would look rather odd to someone in, say, 1973-74. The world in 2008 is one characterized by economic change -- one that may usher-in even more historic political change in the months ahead.

But there has been one constant between the two eras (overlooking cyclicality): the price of oil. It was high, in real terms, in 1973-74, and it's high now. And one thing economists like Glen Langan know regarding economic conditions when oil's price is high -- it simply makes the cost of moving things, the cost of doing pretty much everything, more expensive. Whether it's dropping the kids off at little league baseball or at soccer practice, or transporting a supply chain order of refrigerators across the country, a high oil price "simply increases the cost of motion," he said. And there are few positives for the U.S. economy. Further, it takes dollars that could create spin-off economic effects -- disposable income that could be spent somewhere else -- and simply removes them from the economy.

China's central bank let the yuan appreciate slightly Tuesday night to 7.1452 yuan to the dollar from 7.1580 yuan, China's Xinhua News Agency announced Wednesday. The report also provided a hint regarding the pace of future currency appreciation.

"We will further improve monetary policy controls, continue to use quantitative measures, widen usage of price-related policy tools and increase innovation in monetary policy measures,'' the central bank said in the report, without elaborating, Bloomberg News reported.

Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, has said repeatedly in recent months that the yuan rate would gradually reach a "balanced" level and help bring equilibrium to the balance of payments.

At issue: The yuan

China is facing pressure on a number of fronts to appreciate its currency. Both the United States and Europe would like China, which maintains the yuan's rate in an artificially low trading band, to float its currency or at least let it come close to reflecting a fair-value rate in the years ahead. China keeps the yuan artificially low to reduce the cost of goods exported, which boosts exports sales. Both the U.S. and Europe say that rate gives China an unnatural competitive advantage in trade. China counters that it needs a low-valued yuan to increase wealth and protect young sectors of its developing economy.

Fidel Castro, whose dictatorship outlasted the nine U.S. presidents who tried to oust him, resigned today as Cuba's president. The frail, 81-year-old despot is being succeeded by his younger brother Raul, 76, potentially leading to the end of the decades-old embargo against the Communist country.

Though replacing one Castro with another one is hardly revolutionary, this could be a significant development. U.S. businesses have been frothing at the mouth for years at the idea of entering Cuba, the largest country in the Caribbean, with a population of more than 11 million. The island, which is about the size of Pennsylvania, has natural resources including petroleum, nickel and iron ore, according to the CIA's World Factbook.

Though Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told reporters that he doesn't expect the embargo to be lifted anytime soon, that position may not hold over the long-term because the Cuban market is too large for U.S. companies to ignore. You can bet that the Europeans and Canadians would love to expand their foothold in Cuba if America drags its feet.

The trade deficit declined 6.9% to $58.8 billion in December 2007, as exports rose and imports fell, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday. The figure was below the $61.6 trade deficit estimate.

For 2007, the trade deficit fell 6.2% to $711.6 billion, down from the record $758.5 billion recorded in 2006.

Monthly export record

December 2007 exports rose to a record $144.3 billion while imports declined for the first time in four months to $203.1 billion. Export activity remained strong to China, the Asia region, and South America. Exports of industrial supplies, civilian aircraft, capital goods, and consumer goods were particularly strong.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Thursday that in addition to a weaker dollar, which makes U.S. exports cheaper, the nation's exporters are demonstrating that they can find ways to maintain / increase international sales, even amid more-challenging economic conditions.

Trade: U.S. bright spot

"Across the board, companies are performing well on the export front, as U.S. goods, particularly high-value added items like aircraft, remain very competitive," Affinito said. "For the longest time trade had been a drag on U.S. GDP, but now it's starting to be a positive, which is good news for U.S. companies, employees, and the U.S. economy. The improving trade deficit picture is one of the few bright spots regarding the U.S. economy right now."

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend for support. But every once in while an exception is made for a non-conforming but innovative and promising company, and along these lines Gafisa S.A. looks attractive.

Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA) constructs residential buildings in middle/upper income areas in 35 markets in Brazil. Analysts like Gafisa's huge inventory of land, construction in progress, and finished units, all of which will serve to increase earnings, moving forward.

Further, outstanding mortgage loans in Brazil are only 2% of GDP. That means there's room for the nation's mortgage-based home buyer segment to expand. Meanwhile, lower interest rates in Brazil are providing a tailwind for the nascent, local mortgage market. The First Call F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for GFA are $1.38/$4.18. (Note: Only 1 estimate each year.)

The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is American Movil SA.

American Movil S.A.B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: AMX) is the largest wireless service provider in Latin America, and one of the 10 largest in the world.

Analysts see 2008 revenue rising of 15-20%, after a 32% increase in 2007. Further, analysts also like the company's successful expansion to 13 other markets in the region, to go along with its two key markets: Brazil and Mexico.

Hence, analysts also really like AMX's current subscriber base -- a remarkable 153 million in 2007 -- and its projected subscriber growth rate of 12-15% for 2008, and 10-13% for 2009.

Alcoa and Aluminum Corp. of China, known as Chinalco, have jointly acquired a 12% stake in Rio Tinto, Alcoa announced Friday, in a statement.

The deal is estimated to be worth $14.05 billion, and represents the largest overseas investment by a Chinese company, Chinalco said. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) said it would contribute $1.2 billion to the investment.

Alcoa's shares closed Friday up $1.19 to $34.15 on the news, as did Rio Tinto plc (ADR) (NYSE: RTP), which closed up $34.05 to $441.00.

Alcoa and Chinalco's stake could very well obstruct a bid from Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton for Rio Tinto, the Associated Press reported. BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (NYSE: BHP) closed up $6.15 to $73.73.

Global GDP growth has slowed and will continue to slow to 4.1% in 2008, dragged lower by the slow-growth U.S. economy, the International Monetary Fund announced Tuesday in its revised World Economic Outlook. The IMF's previous global GDP growth estimate for 2008 was 4.9%.

[Note: In its report, the IMF said it has revised the model it uses to measure growth, a qualitative change that reduced GDP growth forecasts in 2005-2008 by 0.5%, or by one-half percentage point. ]

In lowering its 2008 growth estimate, the IMF said there was a risk that the ongoing turmoil in financial markets would further reduce domestic demand in advanced economies with more significant spillovers into emerging market and developing countries.

"Growth in emerging market countries that are heavily dependent on capital inflows could be particularly affected, while the strong momentum of domestic demand in some emerging market countries provides upside potential," the IMF said.

Economic growth in the United States "appears to have slowed notably in the fourth quarter of 2007, with recent indicators showing weakening of manufacturing and housing sector activity, employment, and consumption."

It goes without saying that the U.S. economy has had its share of negative data points and projections recently.

Continued subprime mortgage defaults and related asset write-offs. Declining corporate profits. A perpetual trade deficit. The first yearly decline in median home prices in more than 40 years. Declining consumer confidence. Paraphrasing the understated former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, these are not the most encouraging signs with respect to economic activity.

Are there any rays of light on the U.S. macroeconomic horizon? Indeed there are, and one originated from an unlikely source: the Congressional Budget Office.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. economy is unlikely to fall into a recession in 2008, and that an economic rebound could start as early as next year.

The decade's dramatic rise in crude oil prices to roughly $90 per barrel levels has had a lesser-known, but equally consequential impact on life in the developing world -- a rise in price of cooking oils from palm, soybean and many other types of vegetable oils, The New York Times reported.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said that exports of 60 internationally-traded foodstuffs increased 37% in 2007, following a 14% rise in 2006. Further, price increases in cooking oils hit the developing world particularly hard, as the bulk of poor families in these countries grow their own food, but buy the oil to cook it with.

In the case of palm oil, The Times reported that rising consumption in China and other emerging markets, along with use of the oil in developed markets as a substitute for chemically-altered trans fats, are two major factors behind its price rise.

Biofuel nexus

However, for other oils the rise in crude oil is playing a considerable role, according to London-based economist Mark Chandler. Chandler, whose economic specialization includes developing world economies, said crude oil's rise has led to a dramatic rise in the use of cooking oils as biofuels.

On the heels of Cambridge Energy Research Associates study arguing that new oil finds are replacing declining production at existing oil fields, a BP economist said the world is more likely to switch away from oil as opposed to running out of the commodity in the decades ahead, Reuters reported.

BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP) Special Economic Advisor Peter Davies also told ministers from Britain's Parliament that world oil production is likely to peak -- but not due to any "peak oil" scenario involving declining recoverable supplies and/or declining production -- but rather due to declining demand, Reuters reported.

"I think we will run out of demand before we run out of supply," Davies said, Reuters reported. "There's a distinct possibility that global oil consumption could peak as a result of climate policies."

Readers of this space know that numerous emerging market growth facts suggest that agriculture and agriculture services stocks are likely to remain star performers in the immediate years ahead, given the agriculture boom in emerging markets, and one preferred company worth an evaluation is The Mosaic Company.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) is one of the world's leading producers of crop nutrients -- nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium -- and animal feed ingredients.

Analysts really like Mosaic's revenue and earnings growth, which is being driven be increasing demand for its products from solid economic growth Latin America and Asia. Further, Mosaic's Esterhazy and Saskatchewan plant expansions in 2007 should increase potash capacity to about 11.7-12.0 million tons, and give MOS an edge versus its competitors.